Okay. Granted there may be a little bit of uncertainty with regards to the pay rates in 2016. But, if history is any indication, the Delta group won't have their rates in place by Jan 1 of that year. Negotiations usually get dragged out. Now, Anderson might be motivated to slap AA with higher costs, but that will be his decisions with numerous other factors that we can't possibly fathom. In any case, even if they do get new rates by then, our average will be dragged down by the United anchor who's rates aren't going anywhere. Whatever Delta gets, we're guaranteed to get less.

I'm not sure what you mean here. "Then there's the uncertainty of what the arbitrator will hand out for the rest of the cost neutral stuff. Some might be cost neutral, some might not. Nobody knows for sure." The overall cost, per the terms of the arbitration, has to be neutral compared to the MTA. In other words, we're not getting an additional penny from the company regardless of how the pie is sliced.

As for September 2012, I don't know how hard your prior management pushed back or how competent they were at it. This management team, however, along with getting an injunction slapped on the group, put management pilots in the control towers to monitor each aircraft's movement as a big brother eye-in-the-sky. Any perceived slowdowns and the captain was getting called in. I love what you did in 2012, but you weren't fighting these guys.

FWIW, I hope you're right. I hope the tiger has changed his stripes and gives us something we can agree on. If he does, I'll be pleasantly surprised. But, realistically speaking...I don't see it.

 

Exactly right.

 

For arguments sake, let's just say it did come to that type of confrontation. What would analysts and Wall street say about AA and Parker in regard to the things he (and they) wanted to accomplish as a foundation to anchor the "new" AA ?

Regardless of other factors. they'd say nothing has really changed at AA except the management and the paint and that from a competitive standpoint, AA although larger then Delta cannot hope to match their product. Like it or not, a significant (sorry Jerry ! ) aspect of that product IS the employees, most notably the pilots and F/A's. This IS after all essentially a service business and in the future, that service will be more important then ever considering the strides and expansion foreign carriers are making for the global network.

The old Parker tactics and philosophy of the past simply wont cut it in the future. Sure, running a fragmented principally domestic carrier with frequently marginal service accepted at the expense of rock bottom labor costs worked then and for that competitive model, but not with the largest global carrier in the future. If he wants this carrier to be Spirit on steroids, then yes he's got the right philosophy in embracing his past. If he wants to compete head-to-head against Delta and the other premium global carriers, he's in real trouble.

 

Disagree. I think there WILL be a huge price to pay as stated in my last post. It depends on what Parker envisions the "new" AA to be. Again, if it's just a larger US Airways/Spirit type of operation, fine. If it's a premium product global, not so fine.

Hopefully Honey Badger will (or actually HAS) considered that.

 

I guarantee you he (Parker) sees it differently, Eaglefly. I think he's wrong and I agree with you. But, Parker will tell the analysts "I offered them the highest pay in all the land!" And, I don't think the analysts will really care beyond that...as long as the profits keep coming. And, they will.

Bassslayer is right on the money. "There are A LOT of pilots at the "New AA" that have way overestimated Parkers desire for labor harmony and/or fear of arbitration." He sold APA a bill of goods to get them to buy off on the MOU...and they bought it, hook, line and sinker. But, in the end, he really doesn't care if we're happy or hissed off...as long as the airplanes keep moving.

 

.......then we go to arbitration, wait 13 months for significant pay raises that will trail Delta and Parker lives with present scope and has his larger US Airways with new paint and a product closer to Spirit then Delta. I think in that case, he'll get what he pays for. Building a premium carrier with angry front-line employees existing under inferior compensation while they watch the executives ca$h in with fat profit-sharing and bonuses doesn't sound like a winning plan to me..........at least one that will last. When the profits fade, he'll be on his won to fix that, just like the last bunch that failed miserably in the end. No pensions to whack this time though.

At least there will be no facades or subterfuge then and everyone will be able to accurately identify where AA fits in the global market.............that being the same place the old AA did with a marginal product and chronic counter-productive labor relations that hamstring its potential.

 

Parker is absolutely not worried about arbitration. The MOU spells out the max we get if we go to arbitration. He worked with angry pilots for years and thrived- never quit smiling.

 

I agree. He got where he is today by making US a LCC. That's what he wanted. Would not be a bit surprised if his goal is the larger US/Spirit. Wish I could believe otherwise but the presence of Glass combined with his first offer is not encouraging. I suppose we will know soon enough.

 

I wish I had written that- except I don't think he will catch delta in this environment with this many angry employees. Unfortunately, catching Delta might not be his goal. His goal could be building the biggest LCC ...in the W-O-R-L-D.

 

$4B profits?

I don't care how soon you drop the gear or how slow you taxi, you can't screw up $4B profits without getting fired.

Wall Street is smiling like a cat that ate a mouse colony. Or as Bruce Dickinson said, "You boys will be wearing gold plated diapers." (More Cowbell, SNL)