gloopy

You mean the exact same applicants at every other competitive airline.

That pool (that everyone shares) can only withstand so many of the various depleting factors. Lower mil output, fewer regional pilots due to up-gauging, 6 figure college costs, 6 figure flight school costs, a depleted GA infrastructure always trying to fight off disastrous European style user fees etc, significant retirements still ahead, etc. Regionals have quietly gone from minimum wage and pay for training to 5 figure+ bonus schemes just to keep classes full. One AA regional is even offering 150K bonus packages according to APC.

In any case the degree requirement is extremely low hanging fruit ripe for the picking as fast as it takes to write a single memo. That instantly shaves off 100-200K+ off the cost of entry. Many airlines already don't require it. Even if its "preferred" most have it by default so it takes a while to see the shift. More pilots are getting hired without it. Possibly even at DL depending on top secret "vault letters" and all that.

Maybe by then flight schools will be charging a million bucks lol who knows.

StickPig

I don’t disagree with a lot of the things you said, but if you’re going into debt $100-200k for a four year degree you’re doing it all wrong. There’s the military, both active and reserves that pay for college. There’s thousands of scholarships that go infilled every year because people fail to do the leg work to find them. Work-study. Actual work. Community college. In-state vs out/private. Hell, even most high schools now have dual enrollment to start getting credits toward degree requirements. Forgoing room and board and staying in an apartment with roommates and learning how to cook for yourself. A degree (and a useful one at that) can be had with a little ground work and research for under $50k or less. People just don’t want to find ways to do it. It seems it’s become easier to just sign on a loan that you’re now tied to for 25 years. Doesn’t help that money or financial classes aren’t taught anywhere in America for students in high school. Should be a prerequisite to graduation if you ask me…

gloopy

I'll agree with all that. Even using most of the examples you mentioned though, the costs keeps skyrocketing despite being one of the most intrinsically deflationary sectors imaginable, mostly due to polititians causing massive malivestment by bribing the people with their own money and meddling in economics that they simply don't understand.

Not all that long ago a degree from most good state schools could be had for around or even slightly under 10K at full in state rates. All the relevant civilian ratings could be had for 25-35K. Flight training should have gotten a little more expensive simply because of inflation but college has no excuse. Especially for the plethora of asinine "studies" and "sciences" degrees. The good news is they've made it so expensive trying to make it cheaper, soon they'll have to make it free

Perhaps DL can remain one of the few holdouts that steadfastly requires it going forward. But they've already took some with flow 1.0 and likely just agreed to take more with flow 2.0 and lots of airlines already don't strictly require it. A friend's son made a deal with his dad to go to an ab-initio school instead of a degree. He's 20 now with 600 hours and will likely be at the regionals next year, with much beter pay and movement than most pilots have experienced. They sat down and did the numbers and if he can get on with a descent LCC he'll have it made. Some "majors" don't require it today anyway so that's still not off the table, and I bet some that currently do will change that policy eventually. If he ever needs college, which is looking less likely by the day, he can always bang out a cheap online degree while he's building seniority somewhere and getting paid.

theUpsideDown

There will never be a pilot shortage. Only short pilots.

If there's a pilot shortage with ticket prices at 300 bucks on average, there won't be if they raise the ticket price to 320 bucks on average. These things have a way of fixing themselves.

MiserDD

I agree with every option you point out, but what percentage of the entitled "me" generation do you think are actually doing any of that? I was talking to an enlisted recruiter for the Marines. He told me that his hardest thing is finding potential recruits within weight standards. If the current college age generation can't even push away from the computer long enough to stop eating and do some exercise what percentage do you think will do all the things you proposed? How many high school kids do you see working in fast food or grocery stores these days. That used to be the standard employee. Things have changed.

Margaritaville

There will never be a shortage of qualified applicants at DAL, UAL, AAL. Never.

There is very soon going to be a crushing pilot shortage at the regionals. The LCC/ULCC airlines will follow.

There will never be a shortage of qualified applicants at DAL, UAL, AAL.

Doesn't Delta "prefer" advanced degrees? and you have guys campaigning to remove the degree requirement altogether? Yeah, that's going to happen.

Buck Rogers

Basically agree with most all said. ONE big influencer on "running out" of qualified pilots is longevity. It takes about 5 years to "make" a qualified pilot and when he hires into a legacy job at 26yo he then works for 39 years...that certainly changes the dynamics. OBTW....did anyone mention possibly losing a pilot for long haul flights? From 4 required to 3..or dare I say even 2...or, possibly 1. It is coming, it's just a question of when, not IF. People will become inured to "pilotless" planes after driving their auto pilot cars and the USAF has pilotless planes and the cargo carriers allow it and foreign carriers and...... politicians allow it in the name of lower ticket prices for their constituents(buying votes)(lose a few of the "rich pilot" votes but pick up a far greater number of "poor constituent" votes) They will have statistics to show that pilot error is a far greater threat for killing pax than computers....they will point out CATIII approaches....proof is in the pudding...the pilot is their for a ride along monitor in the most critical phase of flight. With kids that are working for legacy carriers I say the same thing to them, I hope they can climb up the ladder at a greater rate than technology exerts pressure to eliminate their job....that will eventually be someone's Waterloo.

DeltaboundRedux

Unless your parents are independently wealthy, the risk/reward calculation doesn’t really lend itself to the civilian route via a college flight school even with boosts from major airlines via things like Propel.

From a fiscal viewpoint, the military is really the only way to go, but for many reasons, that’s not for everyone. (Physical requirements, late age entry, individual moral/ethical/religious considerations, etc.)

Hard to take yourself outside the bubble though. Everyone here “made it”; so of course either route seemingly makes sense. Knowing what I know now about the cyclical nature of the economy, the fragile house of cards that is the airlines, black swan events that pop up every 8-10 years, and the enormous sunk costs that even getting an interview require, I’m not certain if it’s a good choice for the average Joe who wants to get married young and have a family (once a common enough goal).

Again, the bias on APC is “I made it, so can you”. The same is probably said in the major league sports all teams. It’s a tough road, for most requires a great deal of financial, personal, and physical sacrifice, and maybe not all that worth it. Life goes by mighty fast.

Glad to see Delta is offering some guarantees (with a very small “g”) with the Propel Program.

mketch11

Got the invite to complete the hiring assessment. I am currently 1.5 years away from flow at American from Envoy. I live within driving distance to DFW. My wife says we aren’t moving for a long time due to her job, and I am trying to figure out if I should go to Delta if given the chance and potentially commute for another 20 years or wait 1.5years and flow to American and drive to work? Sounds wrong just saying it out loud but to pass on the flow puts a non-military pilot’s chances of getting on AA slim to none. What would the wise folks out there on the interwebs do assuming I would be commuting for life?

Planetrain

Easy. Do the flow. Don’t commute for 20 years. AA is a great airline.