There's gonna be a flush. How can there not?
Not even the union was trying to tell us the work rule changes wouldn't result in fewer pilots. First they said 300. Finally they lowered it to 125.
I'm guessing its at least 300.

From the MEC "Touch & Go" --

Productivity:
The changes to the scheduling sections of the Tentative Agreement may result in a net loss in pilot staffing of approximately 125 positions. This number is net of all changes to the contract including bid period adjustments, change to ALV/TLV, changes to reserve, increased pay for vacation, increased pay for CQ Training, and all other changes associated with this TA.

Therein lie the concern I have been hearing.

I too agree with your assessment if......

Great program, but did not like the disclaimer that they could modify anything when I tried to install the airwatch stuff. Flt Ops memo states differently, but I do not know if Flt Ops will be managing the dept that has access to the locker.

Yep, that is where my concern lies.

I suspect that DALPA and DAL will do everything in their power to not see a flush. If does not look good if there is. At a min I would expect the WB seats sans the ER to hold extra bodies if needed. Flush will be from the ER down and the 739 coming will be the reasoning.

They'll still have the pesky closing of the ATL 767 category.

Besides, frustration among the pilot group isn't that big of a deal. Where they going to go? The DPA? So, they've got one year to start the 773 order rumors and 2 years to somewhat make it official and 3 to tie it in with scope as a hand in the bush deal. We won't even think about what's going with 773's right around the corner.

Or even 748s? That'd be a good rumor.

I agree. They will try to avoid any large surpluses on the next couple of AE bids. The early outs will be the key. There is no way around it though, the work rule changes probably cost at least 300 jobs. Even if there are not surpluses, there will be that many fewer backfills.

Flame material --
I'd like to see a side letter that allows early outs out of seniority order. That would raise a firestorm in the 744A/777A categories but it would benefit the pilot group as a whole. I think you could sell it if it was closely monitored. Convince those 744A guys that they weren't going to be allowed to go anyway because of the training/operational constraints and let some extra guys go from lower categories even if they are junior to the 744/777 guys.

Here's an ode to those who do take the early out :D

Joecephus "Quittin' Time" - YouTube

(NSFW)

Well, I don't know if that's flame material but this sure will be!:) There is a way to do what you suggest and still allow those 744A/777A guys to "retire." We have done it before.............remember the PRP (Post Retirement Pilot)?:eek:

Edit: No, I'm not a fan of it and do not want to do it again!

Denny

A flush due to a reduction in staffing requirements of 125 sometime next year? Not likely. There are over 12,000 pilots in this airline, we probably have more than 125 going in and out of MLOAs and LTD on any given month. There is no way for the company to plan on taking advantage of that or economically flush guys down, then give AE as our mainline fleet size starts growing to nearly 800 starting at about the same time the work rules kick in. If they could economically flush guys down there wouldnt be an early out program.

No flush down, more AE than surplus bids and approximately 275 early outs.

Not sure about the GO shuttle. I know I've been dropped off on the lower level by it at the airport. Maybe you can get it there? You could take the hotel shuttle. It picks up at :15 & :45. They may drop you off on the way, but if not they have a dedicated training center shuttle which leaves at :00 and :30.