Right now we're around 10,500 pilots. To get to 9000 we'd need to cut 1500 pilots. Between now and early early 2018 we lose 1500 pilots but then pilot productivity would have to jump up from 18.4 pilots per plane to 13.6 pilots per plane.

Might be hard unless they figure out how to cut international staffing which is somewhat around 30 pilots per plane compared to 10-12 for domestic. Still don't think you can do it unless they think they can turn 3 man trips into 2, 4 man into 3 under new rules. I don't know if it's possible.

Another option to hit 9000 (if that is really the goal) is to cut out some mainline jets. Right now that mainline:regional block hour ratio looks to have us well above the 1.56 minimum once the 717s arrive in full and assuming our current fleet does not shrink by a single airplane.

I do.

I think his rant wasn't well founded, though. Considering the issues they are having with it and the extensive delays, I think it was very smart to put off taking delivery of them.

I wouldn't worry about it. I just read there is a pilot shortage so they will likely have no pilots to fly them.:D

Ahh No soup for you!!!! My theory is that we received the soup we asked for. How? My gut feeling is that our wants as a pilot group was close to 30% in the (so-called) secret contract survey. My "black helicopter" theory is that someone conveyed those wants to the company.:D The company, knowing pilots are conservative and wanna be managers, knew we could not refuse a compounded 19+% raise (4-8.5-3-3).

Again, the first person to show numbers at the table is at a loss. We lost the minute we filled out that survey.

TEN

It may be black and all, but that is a very strong accusation. Even those I disagree with on almost every issue would not do that.

Delta taking delivery of 18 of any wide body would be welcome news in this boat.

So, I guess I do.

I don't know.. Maybe it is possible?

What if we not hire and just let everyone pick up extra flying? After all we will be doing them a favor, they will be making more money!! And as the guys are retiring those who stay can pick up even more!! I fly with guys who average 100-110 credit.

Then if they don't want to pick up more we just build 87 hour lines!
We can make peace by creating a LOA giving 5% pay bump over 80 hours.

Then we routinely fly reserves to ALV+15.

Then we combine 764 with 7er and finish off the 767 (dom.) and cut the reserves, like CAL did.

Sorry, I don't want to get anyone down. Just analyzing threats.
All I have heard was that RA wants a 9.000 pilot airline.

I should let you know it is my opinion. My "Black Helicopter Opinion":D. Im not accusing, but thinking hard and loud. Dont be too quick to "tattle" on me.:cool: I am an Alpa supporter.

-717
TEN

That still didn't solidify this for me either way. And it certainlly didn't make me feel better about the deal. I mean what was he saying anyway? That if DL/AF falls apart (highly unlikely, and if it did it would proably be because we found an equal or greater partner in the first place...how sweet would it be to trade AF for LH?) then VA wouldn't make a dent in replacing them assuming we couldn't find an alternate.

Blwoing many hundreds of millions of dollars, maybe the better part of a billion dollars, to buy into (and maybe still not control) a trandy albatross money hemmoraging operation just for some over rated LHR slots that we wouldn't get anyway, just so business passengers can fly on them instead of us anyway, just so DL, inc can launder more revenue through another pilot group's labor seems like a very high risk, low reward proposition.

They don't bring anything to the table we don't already do. What they do "add" is additional capacity to LHR that they are doing anyway, with their own pilots anyway, almost all of which are to cities we serve directly anyway. What they bring to the table that we don't do (LHR-MCO for example) would just siphon off our own marketshare on our metal as well as AF/KLM. If we're trying to hedge our bets in the extremely unlikely event of a DL/AF divorce without a replacement, blowing around a billion for a large minority share in a relatively small money losing operation seems like a really dumb way to do it. If it goes bad we're screwed and if it goes well the gains would be miniscule. Unless they give us a ton of slots, but that's not going to happen.

This looks like a ton of money just to launder revenue through another virtual airline with little to no gain for DL pilots. Even the perpetual "feed" arguement rings hollow on this one, as we have plenty of feed to everything they bring to the table already, most of which is O&D in the first place.

I'm not liking this. I'm not liking this one bit. If it ended up being a killer JV that favored us I could almost warm up to it, but it won't be. And even if it is, that still doesn't "solve for X" when it comes to how the heck this adds anything to the network. Paying a ton to add capacity to your network in a money losing operation just to be able to say you in creased slots at a desireable airport seems really sketchy.

I see a lot of very likely downside on this and only foggy conceptual best case scenario upsides which are extremely limited even if they do pan out.

George, ACL, Bar, etc. what say you?

Speaking of LHR, we announced a 3rd daily departure to there out of ATL today.