I agree with Scambo - highly unlikely. Heck, the economy may turn around and we may even see growth through the purchase of more used airplanes. Also don't forget that we staff for the summer months, not winter. Last winter as a MSP88B I had a lot of time off; not so this winter for me.

Plus Ed Bastian was talking to investors & the media; as others have posted before, his answers might vary depending upon his audience. They don't want to hear talk of higher operating costs due to more pilots.

 

I think furlough is not even considered right now. We know that they will start parking some 757s and 320s this year. We are getting the 737-900 as replacements. A rep that I spoke with said that the 717 might actually come sooner. Southwest is anxious to unload them. We are not going to be that overstaffed in the winter because that is when we will be flying the 717s.

 

Furlough rumors always come up at this time of year. I'll take the "wait and see" approach and am building the furlough fund.

Several balls are in the air:
+ 2013's economy likely to be beat Fox News' predictions
+ Possibility of used airplanes and arrival of used renewal jets
+ Contract 2012's Section 1 language

- We are overstaffed
- Company shows no signs of interest in fixing the deficit in our Air France / KLM agreement
- ALPA shows little interest in pushing the matter (and in fairness is limited by the measurement window from taking substantial action)
- ALPA is allowing other pilot groups to cut deals with Delta management without our knowledge or involvement
- The period of "constructive engagement" seems to be over, at least from management's viewpoint. We were left out of the room on Virgin and Pinnacle. That's around $3 billion all in. Extrapolating from that, there would be no reason for management to give ALPA bad news, until it was contractually required. Things like sick calls and disability claims increase (at most airlines) during periods of furlough and labor unrest. Management does not like sick calls, so might as well maintain the happy talk as long as possible (and hopefully forever).

 

No. Not one little peep. We are looking at 150-200 upgrades on the next AE.

Ok, first of all there are around 8 757's that may be parked. No one has said a word about 320's, but I could see some of the older ones being parked. But only if Airbus doesn't get the airframe life extended. Second, who has said a single word about B717's being delayed? Financially and economically, we are better off then 2008/2009, & we didn't furlough then.

Please step off of the negative rumor go round, before you make yourself sick.

 

Correct, but it sure will be nice when these "upgrades" are not mostly staffed by displacements. ... besides, I've got a man crush on the 767/757 platform ... good airplane ... hate to see it go.

 

I doubt it. But I have a sneaking suspicion that if we hadn't been in the midst of a merger the company might have furloughed in 08-09. Especially if they knew how long this would last.

you're depressing me by pointing out what ALPA is doing right now.

I think if I could summarize our economy, it's a kin to fracking in ND: "I'm going to keep doing what I'm doing until someone stops me." Hence the stagnation and fear yet people keep chugging along because what else can you do? Other than go on permanent disability.

The older 320s were originally mentioned along with the 756s as airplanes the 739 would replace. But I've never seen a number thrown anywhere on how many would go.

As to the 717s being delayed, that was a rumor from a few months back and it was on here. But we haven't really heard anything more sense, anyone have updates on that?

 

The company gets much greater productivity out of its reserve system with the TA notwithstanding the SD memo suggesting we would likely hire last year if we passed it. As a result there's less need for labor from what we had under the old PWA. Granted, let me put that in caps for some, GRANTED, the TA was not responsible for all the overstaffing, it just exacerbated the situation. But, IMO, not to the point that we'd furlough.

 

Yes, the 737-900ERs will replace some B757/767s and A320s. We haven't seen a number thrown out because there haven't been any. I'd say the # is still up in the air. With 100 B737-900ERs, 88 B717s, 19 MD90s still coming I think furloughs are highly unlikely.

As to the B717 delays, as you said it was simply a rumor. And we all know how many rumors on APC become reality.

If anything, I could see the B717s coming early. SWA wants to accelerate the SWA/AT intergration, & dumping the B717s will be part of that.

 

What part of "mainline is going to be growing by 70+ airplanes" do you not understand?

 

Now if that had been a 90, those calm mechanics you see there would look like this



And something would be burning. That's a given.