Originally Posted by Roadkill (Post 1361569)

BUT... that's not the real story or when this huge concession becomes active or important to us! This becomes important two to four years from now, when we have shrunk, and yet no hiring triggers have been met and we mgt is still able to run the airline with the current pilots. However, YOUR time home is reduced, your QOL is reduced. Maybe you get some more hours during summer months, but the option those hours replace is un-hired pilots behind you who don't exist now!

Originally Posted by Josephus (Post 1361582)

These groups always crack me up... if it's worth so much, then someone will pay for it. Don't expect me to subsidize your love affair with architecture.

They would rather make a law restricting how you can use your property because they think it is cool. Take a picture, put it in a book....

Originally Posted by georgetg (Post 1361504)

My "little graph" is based on the IAAC's graph, it's just the portion covered by the current compliance period starting April 2011.

The summer schedules 2013 are pretty much set (you have to load flights in advance after all to sell the tickets) for winter these are the projections of the IAAC.

Simply reaching 50% doesn't cause a "reset."
It's the average that has to reach 50% on a 3-year lookback.

There is a provision in 1.P.4 Note Two that let's the company start a new 3-year compliance window if we reach 49.75% on a 12-month lookback, maybe that's what you had in mind?

Cheers
George

Originally Posted by forgot to bid (Post 1361389)

Okay, I'm asking this once a year but it's because I always just end up at McDonalds. If you're a cheapo but want good food, the best place to eat in DTW airport is...

Originally Posted by Herkflyr (Post 1361077)

The true reason for ALV+15 was the long 12-14 day trips flying to the Pacific that in the summertime frequently are worth 85+ hours.

Originally Posted by Roadkill (Post 1361569)

Disinformation on this topic again. The effects are not critical TODAY, or even really in Jul/Aug this year although they will be felt more than this month--yes, we have roughly the same number of pilots flying this summer as we did last summer. We have a few retirements since then, but a few mil leave returns; and we have less total block hours. So when Sailingfun et. al. point out that it won't be that bad and there are mitigating scheduling constraints, well...yes... that's true. This summer maybe not so bad.

BUT... that's not the real story or when this huge concession becomes active or important to us! This becomes important two to four years from now, when we have shrunk, and yet no hiring triggers have been met and we mgt is still able to run the airline with the current pilots. However, YOUR time home is reduced, your QOL is reduced. Maybe you get some more hours during summer months, but the option those hours replace is un-hired pilots behind you who don't exist now!

All the scheduling constraints thrown around by some on here as argument points to mitigate the pain of this concession are effectively meaningless as they are not really "constraints" in the process. "The manning formula hasn't changed, they still can't fly reserves over 60 hours/mon avg without hiring..." is often heard--but is absolutely meaningless in context of the actual numbers, as it is a yearly average that we never even come close to nor will we ever. It's a trigger that SOUNDS not too bad and like it might be effective... but if you remember that over half the year we don't fly too much, it easily allows 90 hours average during Jun/Jul/Aug at our current levels with room to spare. It would be nice to have the actual avg reserve hours flown by month for the last year to bolster this point rather than estimating based on reserve coverage, if someone has those numbers.

All the other constraints can be lumped into this methodology and discarded: scheduling has to live under those constraints NOW, they do not change, therefore they are not the driving factors--only the increased ability to fly reserves to ALV+15 drives. Now granted, 30 in 7 and 24 hours rest in 7 are more difficult to schedule as more time is stuffed into a month. But this can easily be thrown out by the myriad examples of pilots who voluntarily achieve EXACTLY this hour/month compression or worse, via WS and GS, from a relatively very small pool of choices (thus much harder to achieve harmony via) than scheduling has available to them to make the puzzle fit. These scheduling "constraints" on mgt's ability to utilize the full ALV+15 are illusory, and are a red-herring to take attention away from what is critical.

We do not need to look at specific pilot/trip combinations to discuss this accurately; most constraints in specific examples you might choose as a negative-proof are constraints in both cases we're interested in (reserves full at 68 hrs essentially and reserves full at UP TO ALV+15 which can be 99 hours). Instead, we can say that IF scheduling has a hard limit of not flying a pilot over 70 hours (68 if you consider dress up pay), AND THEY WERE ABLE TO MEET THAT LIMIT with some amount of Slop ("S") they found acceptable... THEN if the limit is increased by X hours, they will be able to get the full X hours use and STILL REMAIN BELOW THE LIMIT BY S slop hours! You don't need to look at any specifics, their ability to stay within a limit has already been proven.

So how much did the limit they operate under increase? Well, if we take the average--NO! Average monthly value here is meaningless, what a guy flys in Jan/Feb doesn't matter diddly to whether Delta has to hire! What matters is Jul, our high time month, and almost as much Aug. ALV can now be 84, and max reserve guarantee is 80--so he's "full" at 80, but at 79+59 they can still schedule him up to a limit of ALV+15 hours, so 99 hours. So it's simple really, if we don't get distracted: scheduling's ability to use a reserve pilot has gone from 70 hours to 99. This is an
increase of 29 hours. When compared to the old limit, that is a 29/70 or 41.4% increase. REGARDLESS OF WHAT SLOP "S" scheduling chooses to preserve below 99 actual hours (maybe they will only actually average 85 hours!), the INCREASE in ability to use, their limiting factor, IS STILL the same!

In Mar 2013, there were 2078 pilots on reserve lines, out of 10237 total pilots, or 20.3% (ref actual line counts Mar13). I am not sure what it was in Jul 12 as I deleted my "Actual Lines" file for that. I'm sure it would be less. Let's say it was 15% of the total pilots or 1535 reserve pilots. An ability to use those 1535 pilots on average IF NEEDED 41.4% more equates to them doing the work it WOULD HAVE TAKEN 2171 pilots to do. This is an effective increase in pilots of 635 reserve pilots.

Oh, and by the way, now we're able to have ALV be 84 vs. 82, so that's a 2/82 or 2.44% increase of flying by the reg line holders, say 85% in Jul still or 8701*2.44% = a net increase of 212 pilots worth of flying.

The reduction of flying days in the months of Jul and Aug from 31 to 30 results in a 1/31st increase in flying time not used in that month; that is, before they had to fill 31 days of flying with the same ALV and reserve use limits, but now they only need to fill 30 days of flying. There has been a 1/31 reduction of flying that must be stuff into the month below the limitations. This can directly be converted into pilots "saved" to the company, as above using 85% reg lines in Jul or 8701 pilots, *1/31, or 280 pilots no longer needed by scheduling to fly the same amount and yet still stay within their constraints.

These three concessions add up to: 635 reserve pilots + 212 line pilots + 280 line pilots = 1127 pilots that are NOT NEEDED NOW to fly the SAME BLOCK and yet still stay within the controlling limitations. That is 1127 pilots that now do not need to be hired. That is 11% of our list, which you can look at as either how much you WOULD have moved up, or how much you are now stagnated. How many years delay is that? Well, that's the 56 retirements from 2013, plus the 121 from 2014, plus the 178 from 2015, plus the 231 from 2016, plus the 297 from 2017, plus 244 (over half) of the retirements in 2018. So THAT is what these three concessions equate to:
ALL THE HIRING WE WOULD HAVE DONE THROUGH AUG 2018.

Now, when Slowplay or Sailingfun or johnso start saying, "yes but NOW your known absences are taken into account in the staffing!" or "Yes but now vacations are worth 15 min more per day", please show some basic common sense... I could go on about how a 1/12th increase in vacation is diluted by the allowable vacation slots during limfac months, and how known absences and unknown absences both effectively are already accounted for by the Slop "S" being held below limfacs... but rather, please just compare these specious arguments to the absolvement of all hiring needs from retirements through Aug 2018, and don't be fooled. It's a fool who can't tell an ounce from a pound when he's being sold a pig in a poke.