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Originally Posted by Carl Spackler
(Post 1001368)
Bar you need to understand the 1974 court case that set the precedent of Scope being unique in our contracts. Unique in that we are not legally allowed to strike over it. Unique in that if we don't agree to change it, management can do nothing about it except take it off the table or the NMB will do it for them. Do you understand this? I didn't until a month ago and I've done union work on and off for decades. It is critically important that you understand this if you don't.
Originally Posted by Carl Spackler
(Post 1001368)
My plan is not move one micro-millimeter on Scope in our upcoming Section 6. Management will have no legal choice but to take it off the table, or the NMB will do it for them. Then we pilots watch the company's 50-76 seat bonanza turn into a nightmare as these aircraft become more and more economically untenable. Then we can grow Delta organically. Everything in my plan is both legal and easily achieved.
What say you? Carl
- ALPA's pricing what it might can sell - ALPA's leaving their options open - Management's trying to avoid a defensive reaction (and aid ALPA in keeping their options open) Of course it is hoped ALPA will do more. I'd like to see us slide Southwest's Section 1 across the table and negotiate from there. Since that really is more than can be done, I'd like to re-write Section 1 inclusively where we can and sunset as much of the outsourcing as is possible. One area where our MEC did do a good job is tying economic incentives to furlough protection. But this tool has limited usefulness. If the Company found itself in real peril economic provisions would have to be waived to save the Company. Our scope needs to focus on pilots, not airplanes. In almost every case, the simpler approach is better. Southwest's active scope language is just a paragraph long. In the same form, our scope need only state Delta pilots be at the controls of Delta flying. |
Boyd's Aviation Data Miner Hot Flash deals with American and Eagle, but just as well could be stated about a significant percentage of Delta's DCI portfolio.
While some will read this and think YIPPEE the RJ is dead, they need to also realize this will put more pressure on the vendors to get 70 to 76 seat flying, as well as go for the brass ring of 100 to 130 seat replacement jets. Don't get this article confused with the CRJ900 and E175 which economically are mainline jets. With "Regional" Carriers The Data Is Really Raw. Care must be taken in comparing cost and "per passenger" metrics between small lift providers. Each has different agreements, where some cost components are attributed to the major. For example, the raw data reported by Comair indicate a CASM of 8.7 cents - about half the Eagle figure. Tha't because certain costs - such as fuel - are paid by Delta, thereby skewing the numbers. This stands true, also, for revenue data. Because neither Eagle nor Comair sell their own seats, the revenue per passenger data are based on computations that may have little to do with the actual fares paid by passengers sitting in those RJ seats. Amateurs: Don't Try This At Home. Data such as these provide only raw material for further professional analysis. As with all aviation data, knowledge of the subject matter is necessary to properly analyze the information. When numbers like these fall into the hands of amateur journalists or reporters from some of those national financial magazines (dare we forget the dimbulb "Rip-off Airports" story in Forbes?) there's no telling the levels of intellectual mayhem that can result. Observations: An Economically-Obsolete Fleet. And No Replacements Coming. Two metrics to look at are the average stage length and the average load factor. Relatively short flight sectors (487 miles) and numerically-light passengers per flight (36). In light of the fact that the ERJ fleet at Eagle is essentially economically obsolete, and there are no replacements on the drawing board, this represents a looming crisis for AMR. As ERJ costs and fuel prices go up, the situation will get worse. At some juncture, a tipping point will come for more and more of the missions where Eagle is used by American, and service will need to be cut back or cut out. It is not hypothetical. The Eagle 37-44-50 seat fleet is simply moving to the point where they can make a positive contribution in fewer and fewer applications. It is a mathematical certainty. This also illuminates the intellectual "crazy aunt" in the attic that nobody wants to talk about: there are no real alternatives for Eagle outside of the AA system. This doesn't mean that AMR won't be able to (somehow) spin Eagle off and out from under the AMR banner. Regardless, the implications that as an independent entity it will be able to bid on flying for other majors are simply not consistent with reality. Ask ExpressJet how well that's working for them, long term. Fact: there is a glut of RJs in the US industry, and at $3 jet-A, it's an increasing glut. Fact: some portion of the passengers now carried by Eagle will not have an alternative when more of these machines are retired. Much of this, to be sure, will be in missions where consumers have alternative. But that doesn't change the fact that there will be some reduction in the number of passengers that the American system will carry in some markets. |
Originally Posted by Carl Spackler
(Post 1001368)
My plan is not move one micro-millimeter on Scope in our upcoming Section 6. Management will have no legal choice but to take it off the table, or the NMB will do it for them. Then we pilots watch the company's 50-76 seat bonanza turn into a nightmare as these aircraft become more and more economically untenable. Then we can grow Delta organically. Everything in my plan is both legal and easily achieved.
What say you? Carl |
Originally Posted by johnso29
(Post 1001376)
That's starts with the June 30th check. Half of guarantee on the 30th, then the other half plus overs and per diem on the 15th. :)
Originally Posted by iaflyer
(Post 1001377)
The Trim Tab says it's effective the June 30th Paycheck. It will be half of guarantee (35 hours)
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Bar- Great post.
I'm sure it's been covered on here, but we should bear in mind the economic backdrop that accompanied the RJ explosion in the nineties. We were on the back side of Desert Storm and the country was flush with cash (and very cheap oil) courtesy of our Saudi friends. The economics of the industry have changed drastically between then and now. Hopefully the pilot group can hold the line on scope.... but I think the point has been made on here that we don't want to give away the farm with respect to pay and work rules if the company is just using scope threats as a bluff. Is it possible the company knows outsourcing is going to be less and less cost effective, but realizes it would be stupid to admit at risk of losing negotiating capital? It's always tempting to prepare for the last war, but the next one will quite likely be fundamentally different. Break break... I for one have appreciated all the ALPA mailers about how to read a balance sheet, etc. FWIW, it's informative for a new guy. However, I can see how that particular mailer could be perceived as a tacit endorsement of the (management) position that pilot pay be largely determined by profitability. The reductio ad absurdum argument is that if the company is losing money, we should be paying them to fly their planes. I'm not trying to criticize or say I know a better way, but I hope we can establish ourselves as more of a fixed cost. Glad to be here. Whidbey |
Originally Posted by Bucking Bar
(Post 1001412)
Boyd's Aviation Data Miner Hot Flash deals with American and Eagle, but just as well could be stated about a significant percentage of Delta's DCI portfolio.
While some will read this and think YIPPEE the RJ is dead, they need to also realize this will put more pressure on the vendors to get 70 to 76 seat flying, as well as go for the brass ring of 100 to 130 seat replacement jets. Don't get this article confused with the CRJ900 and E175 which economically are mainline jets. Another Indication of Coming Air Service Regionalization. The point is this: much of the traffic that Eagle (and Comair, and Air Wis, and others) are carrying today may be totally uneconomic in the next 18 months. Carrying just 36 people at a clip across the sky made sense at $1 jet fuel. It makes sense in fewer places today. I understand there will be many places slashed, but ATL-GSO with seemingly hourly flights on CRJ-200s to ATL won't be. With contracts in place with regionals can we expect to see RJs flying some routes they have no business on because they have to be put somewhere? Or can we get out of these contracts and cut 50 seaters from more than just Comair and Mesa? |
fwiw, I really hate high pressure systems. If I was Johnny Cash and a summer high showed up to my concert, well...
http://www.digitalmusicinsider.com/w...le-finger1.jpg |
Heyas,
Both Bar and Carl are correct. Bar is correct that as the ecomomic pressure builds on the RJ Puppy Shelters, those outfits are NOT going to just go quietly unto the nether. There is a pretty good chunk of captial tied up in those outfits, and the people who own it aren't just going to sit by and watch it die on the vine. Expect renewed pressure on expanding the 70-76 codeshare, and a balls to the wall effort to break the 76 seat barrier. Bar and Carl are also correct that it is MADNESS to assume that we'll get any change of direction from the current leadership. They KNOW that mistakes were made in the langauge of Section 1, but they still don't want anyone watchdogging the most critical part of our contract, and you can bet that anything vomited up at the negotiating table will be hard sold to get %50 +1. The spin involving the 50 seaters is nothing but spin, and hardly qualifies as a sideshow. In BK, NWALPA gave the company all the 50 seaters it could stand, but the DC-9s didn't start to get parked until the 76 seaters showed up. It's THOSE aircraft, going to tiny places like Chicago and Philidephia, that do the most damage to our careers. Nu |
[QUOTE=Bucking Bar;1001408]Didn't you strike over labor protection provisions in 1998, specifically the KLM alliance, Continental code share and small jet flying? I can't find it written anywhere that a strike over labor protection provisions is any more restricted than a strike under the RLA already is.Carl,
Don't belive that was the main issue but outsourcing was part of it, the two main issues I remember were the 3% snap back and B scale...maybe more. |
Originally Posted by NuGuy
(Post 1001463)
Heyas,
Both Bar and Carl are correct. Bar is correct that as the ecomomic pressure builds on the RJ Puppy Shelters, those outfits are NOT going to just go quietly unto the nether. There is a pretty good chunk of captial tied up in those outfits, and the people who own it aren't just going to sit by and watch it die on the vine. Expect renewed pressure on expanding the 70-76 codeshare, and a balls to the wall effort to break the 76 seat barrier. Bar and Carl are also correct that it is MADNESS to assume that we'll get any change of direction from the current leadership. They KNOW that mistakes were made in the langauge of Section 1, but they still don't want anyone watchdogging the most critical part of our contract, and you can bet that anything vomited up at the negotiating table will be hard sold to get %50 +1. The spin involving the 50 seaters is nothing but spin, and hardly qualifies as a sideshow. In BK, NWALPA gave the company all the 50 seaters it could stand, but the DC-9s didn't start to get parked until the 76 seaters showed up. It's THOSE aircraft, going to tiny places like Chicago and Philidephia, that do the most damage to our careers. Nu I absolutely reject the idea that the MEC has caved repeatedly on Scope. The truth is, neither the NWA pilot group, nor the DAL pilot group was willing to shut the door that has been open forever. And yes, in bankruptcy, the door was opened wider. Bad things happen in bankruptcy. I am completely confident DALPA will not open the door further, and perhaps may even close it a bit. |
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