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Old 07-28-2021 | 09:57 AM
  #621  
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Originally Posted by JacksonThunder
I consider my post history to be PG. Besides, management has more problems at hand than to go on an APC witch hunt.
Actually they don’t. Pilots have been terminated with cause from posts they made on the FB group, APC, and on their own personal social media accounts. If you don’t know what you’re talking about, I’d suggest treading lightly. FOM is pretty cut and dry.
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Old 07-29-2021 | 08:58 PM
  #622  
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So how long will it take to flow?


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Old 07-30-2021 | 05:31 AM
  #623  
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Originally Posted by jcool734
So how long will it take to flow?


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Hard to say. Just like anyone else that has a flow, it depends on attrition. 20/month is the flow, but if 20/month also leave like they have been... Maybe inside of 5 years for the most junior folks. If no one but the flows leave...8 years.
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Old 07-30-2021 | 12:49 PM
  #624  
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Originally Posted by Casualinterest
Hard to say. Just like anyone else that has a flow, it depends on attrition. 20/month is the flow, but if 20/month also leave like they have been... Maybe inside of 5 years for the most junior folks. If no one but the flows leave...8 years.
Well, we lost 40 this month without a flow, so...
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Old 07-30-2021 | 01:38 PM
  #625  
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Originally Posted by ninerdriver
Well, we lost 40 this month without a flow, so...
Most likely to climb. It’s a good thing!
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Old 07-31-2021 | 06:33 AM
  #626  
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Originally Posted by ninerdriver
Well, we lost 40 this month without a flow, so...
I know. It's awesome!
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Old 07-31-2021 | 09:19 AM
  #627  
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Originally Posted by ninerdriver
Well, we lost 40 this month without a flow, so...
For those who have not done the math.

So, if that continues, not counting flow. . .

40/month x 12 months/year = 480/year.

2,000 pilots / 480/year = about 4 years.

That is without flow.

YMMV
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Old 07-31-2021 | 04:34 PM
  #628  
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Originally Posted by TransWorld
For those who have not done the math.

So, if that continues, not counting flow. . .

40/month x 12 months/year = 480/year.

2,000 pilots / 480/year = about 4 years.

That is without flow.

YMMV

Where those pilots are on the seniority list matters as well.
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Old 07-31-2021 | 09:55 PM
  #629  
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Originally Posted by teddy3412
Where those pilots are on the seniority list matters as well.
I quite agree.

It also matters that some at the top are lifers and are not going anyplace.

Further, those at the bottom, say less than 1,000 hours and in the right seat, will likely not get hired by a major.

Yes, there are some junior that may jump to another regional as a FO. But at some point that is just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.

But one fourth of all the pilots leaving each year takes one’s breath away. My guess is a majority of these are from the left seat.

It is also consistent with the gross hiring numbers by the majors. Numbers that, based on upcoming retirements, will be sustained annually through the rest of this decade.
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Old 08-01-2021 | 01:28 PM
  #630  
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Originally Posted by TransWorld
I quite agree.

It also matters that some at the top are lifers and are not going anyplace.

Further, those at the bottom, say less than 1,000 hours and in the right seat, will likely not get hired by a major.

Yes, there are some junior that may jump to another regional as a FO. But at some point that is just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.

But one fourth of all the pilots leaving each year takes one’s breath away. My guess is a majority of these are from the left seat.

It is also consistent with the gross hiring numbers by the majors. Numbers that, based on upcoming retirements, will be sustained annually through the rest of this decade.
July was 25 CAs and 15 FOs leaving. UAL in particular has been busy taking our pilots, including those from the right seat.

the flow is great as it moves some very senior people that otherwise wouldn’t have left. Nice to see some movement from the very top.
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