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Old 04-09-2022, 11:54 AM
  #2201  
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Originally Posted by pitchattitude View Post
There is no real way to guess and historically what has happened is just out the window because things are so dynamic. Plan on three to six months of reserve. But if they throw a 145 class in there and get stuck, it could be forever.

Commuting to reserve is a special kind of he11. Most reserve lines are five on two off with a four on and three off in there someplace. Depending WHERE you are commuting to and from determines how commutable anything is. There are ways to push your first day late and slowly work to an early last day. But depends how the crew schedulers are and what flights you get tagged with.

I appreciate the reply!
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Old 04-09-2022, 03:55 PM
  #2202  
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Originally Posted by BigZ View Post
Remember the days when you would get all hissy at me for pointing out that your optimism is overly optimistic?
Back then things were looking good. Then Covid and management ineptitude wiped it all out.
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Old 04-10-2022, 12:55 AM
  #2203  
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Originally Posted by dera View Post
Man. You sound like me 3 years ago. All full of optimism.

That will die soon. You'll see that the stuff RW/RN told you guys in your orientation is all lies, such as the 3 new sims. When I started, it was "LAX base is a done deal" and other gems like that.
RN told my class 3 years years ago “reserve is supposed to suck.” Didn’t lie about that one.
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Old 04-10-2022, 02:24 AM
  #2204  
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Originally Posted by chihuahua View Post
Was this in the 2019 time frame? I seem to remember seeing maybe one or two DL E175s at MIA, but they were rare, and RPA was operating them for AA, Envoy had just brought the base back with only the 145 a year or two earlier. Then maybe late 2019 or early 2020 before covid, RPA left and the Envoy E145s in MIA got replaced by the Envoy E175s.
Yes, that's about the time-frame.
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Old 04-10-2022, 03:18 AM
  #2205  
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Originally Posted by chihuahua View Post
Seems like it's impossible to predict what will happen over the next few months, but based on what you say, it doesn't sound like anything good. I wonder what the end game would be for AA with Envoy and PSA and all the planes they have if they keep losing people at a rate faster than they can replace them, especially the instructors and check airmen. Taking a quick glance over at the RPA page, it would appear that while they are experiencing the same issues as everyone else, it seems their retention problems don't seem to the level of seriousness you guys and others are experiencing. And they have ordered those 100 planes, for whatever contract they may be for.
Which planes would those be? There have been a few times RPA or Mesa have had “100 plane” orders that weren’t hard orders at all. Merely a “letter of intent” contingent on receiving a contract for them. SKW usually has had much smaller 20-25 orders and they say who they will be flown for. Without a contract of a carrier to fly for, those letters of intent are just smoke and mirrors.

The last planes RPA purchase for AAG flying were the six that AAG had that was the tail end of deliveries that were going to ENY. Under cover of darkness AAG let RPA purchase them instead. No announcement. It wasn’t until certain sequential N numbers didn’t show up at ENY and instead were showing up on the flight tracker coming from Brazil and owned by RPA that anything was said.
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Old 04-10-2022, 04:50 AM
  #2206  
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Originally Posted by pitchattitude View Post
Which planes would those be? There have been a few times RPA or Mesa have had “100 plane” orders that weren’t hard orders at all. Merely a “letter of intent” contingent on receiving a contract for them. SKW usually has had much smaller 20-25 orders and they say who they will be flown for. Without a contract of a carrier to fly for, those letters of intent are just smoke and mirrors.

The last planes RPA purchase for AAG flying were the six that AAG had that was the tail end of deliveries that were going to ENY. Under cover of darkness AAG let RPA purchase them instead. No announcement. It wasn’t until certain sequential N numbers didn’t show up at ENY and instead were showing up on the flight tracker coming from Brazil and owned by RPA that anything was said.
https://www.aerospacemanufacturingan...r-e175-010419/

Its my understanding that the first 38 will replace 170s under the United contract, with the 170s going to the AA contract. The rest will replace older 175s unless there is scope room to grow.

But it’s definitely a legit order.
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Old 04-10-2022, 06:20 AM
  #2207  
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Originally Posted by 3400 View Post
https://www.aerospacemanufacturingan...r-e175-010419/

Its my understanding that the first 38 will replace 170s under the United contract, with the 170s going to the AA contract. The rest will replace older 175s unless there is scope room to grow.

But it’s definitely a legit order.
That article calls it a form order, but also a letter of intent. Also says deliveries to start 2020 and will position to BID for flying. Have any of those deliveries (besides the 6 AAG pulled out from Envoy) actually happened? So they have any additional contracts for those planes? Without contracts it’s still smoke and mirrors. Also have to be able to staff them which no one can do.

I have heard anecdotally that the RPA 170s will slide over to the AAG side, but no firm evidence. But moving which carrier those planes are flown for and one for one replacement isn’t growth. Also, I can’t imagine that “older 175s” are ready for replacement already if 170s are still good enough to fly. 145s are thirty years old. Very first 170s are just now 20 years old.

Last edited by pitchattitude; 04-10-2022 at 07:01 AM.
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Old 04-11-2022, 06:00 AM
  #2208  
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Originally Posted by pitchattitude View Post
That article calls it a form order, but also a letter of intent. Also says deliveries to start 2020 and will position to BID for flying. Have any of those deliveries (besides the 6 AAG pulled out from Envoy) actually happened? So they have any additional contracts for those planes? Without contracts it’s still smoke and mirrors. Also have to be able to staff them which no one can do.

I have heard anecdotally that the RPA 170s will slide over to the AAG side, but no firm evidence. But moving which carrier those planes are flown for and one for one replacement isn’t growth. Also, I can’t imagine that “older 175s” are ready for replacement already if 170s are still good enough to fly. 145s are thirty years old. Very first 170s are just now 20 years old.

The article says it was a letter of intent but is now a firm order.

A global pandemic happened since LOI was firmed and deliveries were delayed but will begin in the 3rd quarter of 2022.

If the 170s are painted silver and new 175s come in to replace those on the United contract, yes that would be growth.

But again, staffing all of this is a different story.
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Old 04-11-2022, 06:31 AM
  #2209  
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Originally Posted by 3400 View Post
The article says it was a letter of intent but is now a firm order.

A global pandemic happened since LOI was firmed and deliveries were delayed but will begin in the 3rd quarter of 2022.

If the 170s are painted silver and new 175s come in to replace those on the United contract, yes that would be growth.

But again, staffing all of this is a different story.
Where are you seeing those deliveries will happen? The RPA recruiting page (rjet.com, not APC) still lists 200 planes and there is no mention of more planes or contracts. APC shows more planes (221) and that delivery of the 100 on that LOI began in 2020, but I still see no real evidence that they have any additional contracts, even the moving the 170s to AAG contract doesn’t seem to be a certainty. An expanding airline means quicker seniority progression and is good recruiting fodder. Reading the RPA forum even they doubt this will happen and have the same doubts.
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Old 04-11-2022, 08:55 AM
  #2210  
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Originally Posted by pitchattitude View Post
Where are you seeing those deliveries will happen? The RPA recruiting page (rjet.com, not APC) still lists 200 planes and there is no mention of more planes or contracts. APC shows more planes (221) and that delivery of the 100 on that LOI began in 2020, but I still see no real evidence that they have any additional contracts, even the moving the 170s to AAG contract doesn’t seem to be a certainty. An expanding airline means quicker seniority progression and is good recruiting fodder. Reading the RPA forum even they doubt this will happen and have the same doubts.
All this being said, I don’t doubt for a second that AAG would turn over flying in a second to RPA or anyone else that has or will buy the planes and can staff them (or claim to be able to do so). They have shown they don’t want spend money buying regional planes.
Just don’t think it has happened for these particular planes… yet.
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