Cyio

So the 175 has the most movement in ORD, this is pretty accurate and is most likely to continue with the 40 new aircraft. Reserve times there range from 4-8 months. The most junior captain 175 ORD is a 1331 seniority number with a 6/17 date of hire. I think this trend will continue although it will be affected by the crj’s leaving. How much and how soon is still up in the air.

If you don’t proffer for an upgrade and the company forces you to, you may get the 145. If that happens you are not seat locked unless you opt in to volunteer for it, giving you an extra 5 hour a month override for two years. Should you choose not to, you can then proffer on the next bid for the 175, however at this point you would need to go to another long term since you would have started training on the 145, this not allowing the qualified upgrade. However, training is about four months out right now on upgrades for the 175 so who knows, you might be able to bid back into it even before you go to training on the 145.

I will end this with the obvious, you are just starting and the situation now will certainly not be the same when it comes to your upgrade.

BillyBob1

All makes sense, thank you for the info, definitely helps clear things up a little. 175 it is (as long as I have that option). Watch my class have all 145s now lol

ENH017

Not sure if it's been mentioned already but something to keep in mind is that for a new hire today getting forced to upgrade might not be the normal anymore. We've got a large influx of upgrades coming now through the rest of this year.

Cyio

Yes exactly hence the last catch all paragraph at the end. I suspect the forced upgrades will continue through the end of 2019 and that will be it. All speculation though. I would still argue the 175 is the plane a new hire would want to be on.

MD-11Loader

The forced upgrades will continue, especially if they don't get their 125 street captains that they want. The flow and outside attrition are eating up almost 40 captains a month. I can't see how they will get to a point where we will have to stop the forced upgrades while we are taking deliveries of airplanes.

mketch11

In the short term, perhaps the huge wave of FOs upgrading, decrease of flow to 15 per month and decrease of attrition due to future flowing pilots being 5 years on property instead of 12? These may be the droids you are looking for.

PilotPete4You

This year I think we grew roughly 100-200 pilots.

These are guesstimates
Data: December
Total: 2400
New: 650
Attrition: 520

Growth: 130
5%

Does someone have the data on our fleet growth?

NoValueAviator

Unless you live in Miami or New York, I can't think of any reason whatsoever to go for the 145. This airline is incompetently managed and one of the main ways that can ruin your first year as an airline pilot is by overstaffing the lesser Embraer. Although who can guess what kind of mistakes they'll make (and we'll all pay for) in the future.

BillyBob1

so what exactly are forced upgrades? Sounds self explanatory but why would someone not want to upgrade? Because they may have to switch aircraft or location? And if I have this correct seat locks only apply if you proffer (basically volunteer right?) to upgrade, but if the company forces it there is no seat lock?

BillyBob1

I do not live in either and would prefer not to commute there either... ORD and DFW are close and easily commutable (i'm hoping). I guess it all depends what is available when I go to Indoc, plus whats left when I get to choose (i'm relatively young so will probably be choosing close to last unless my class is young, providing they are still having people choose based on age).