Originally Posted by dera

I know this is not a very popular opinion but in the past 4 years, the only one predicting flow rates somewhat accurately has been the company.

Originally Posted by mketch11

What about the other years?

Originally Posted by dera

So you say my post was a "fantasy born of hope rather than realism".
Then you continue to give your fantasy born of hope rather than realism about future growth and recessions etc.

Pilots have always been horrible in predicting what the industry is doing. Just go to the old posts and see what people were predicting in 2014/2015. Back then the hot topics were that Envoy will never get any 175's, Endeavor is going to die in a few months, PDT and Envoy will merge the moment PDT parks their last Dash (this was a confirmed rumor from a reliable source btw...) and flow predictions aren't realistic. Here's a gem I found right away. This guy, a 2013 hire, would flow later this year, just like they predicted back then.



Or this one, for a 2015 new hire.



I know this is not a very popular opinion but in the past 4 years, the only one predicting flow rates somewhat accurately has been the company.

Originally Posted by moon

We've yet to get close to the company predictions.... 9 years isn't 6. We could get close to their old predictions in a year to a year and a half, but they made new predictions around xmas that will be even harder to catch.

Originally Posted by havick206

Their predictions are spot on or even better for the 2016 group.

Credit where credit due.

Originally Posted by moon

And again new predictions has 2016 hires flowing mid 2020.

Originally Posted by moon

Again yet to get there as far as flow. You can't say they are accurate until they are. And again new predictions has 2016 hires flowing mid 2020. Will give credit if it happens and I'm hoping it does happen but hasn't yet.

Originally Posted by Pedro4President

It won't happen if they slow the flow to 15 per month after the protected pilots. I bet March 2021 but at best they will be late 2020 like December 2020.

Nevermind I take all that back.... Ill wait until the union puts out their new projections before I stick with this one. Attrition from the top is going to be key.

Originally Posted by DreadWing

Where are these new predictions?

Originally Posted by moon

Email from RW. Had a graph showing like a 3.5 year flow in Aug of 2020.