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Old 01-28-2019, 02:09 PM
  #501  
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Originally Posted by dera View Post
Yep, if you're near STL in the next few weeks hit me up, beer is on me.
I was just hoping to get more DFW 175 guys below me on the seniority list
Free beers at the training hotel in STL donít count, ha.

But appreciate the thought all the same.
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Old 01-28-2019, 02:21 PM
  #502  
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Originally Posted by havick206 View Post
Free beers at the training hotel in STL donít count, ha.

But appreciate the thought all the same.
You can also choose your own from the gas station next door!
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Old 01-28-2019, 02:25 PM
  #503  
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Originally Posted by havick206 View Post
Free beers at the training hotel in STL donít count, ha.

But appreciate the thought all the same.
Better than the not free beer and food at the training hotel in DFW!

And come to think of it, other than the Ďhood itís in the hotel itself is better too.
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Old 01-28-2019, 05:22 PM
  #504  
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Originally Posted by pitchattitude View Post
Better than the not free beer and food at the training hotel in DFW!

And come to think of it, other than the Ďhood itís in the hotel itself is better too.
Iím just stirring the pot. Iíll drink any free beer except for the dregs in an ash tray.
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Old 01-31-2019, 12:14 AM
  #505  
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Originally Posted by BigZ View Post
Yeah, about that....

dera, the folks are lining up for the beers!

Remember how a while back I cautioned you about using logic and numbers to predict future? We've all been there.
Beers were on me yesterday at Yesterday's

It does seem random, but maybe there is some method to their madness.

Look at the flowplan. Almost 1:1 ratio of DFL displacements to DFL new hires. I think they hired 6 more than they upgraded. With more planes coming, this makes sense.
OFE is harder to figure out "by hand", because of the large amounts of base transfers. But a quick count shows roughly the same number of OFE displacements and BT's as new hires.

So if someone REALLY wants to be Sherlock Holmes. Look up the hours of the top FOs per fleet - and you can figure out their upgrade rate. Add about 2 months of training, and that might give you an idea which fleets need most new hires from the next classes.
(no, I don't think anyone should do that - but I bet the company does have the stats similar to that).
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Old 01-31-2019, 04:35 AM
  #506  
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Originally Posted by dera View Post
Beers were on me yesterday at Yesterday's

It does seem random, but maybe there is some method to their madness.

Look at the flowplan. Almost 1:1 ratio of DFL displacements to DFL new hires. I think they hired 6 more than they upgraded. With more planes coming, this makes sense.
OFE is harder to figure out "by hand", because of the large amounts of base transfers. But a quick count shows roughly the same number of OFE displacements and BT's as new hires.

So if someone REALLY wants to be Sherlock Holmes. Look up the hours of the top FOs per fleet - and you can figure out their upgrade rate. Add about 2 months of training, and that might give you an idea which fleets need most new hires from the next classes.
(no, I don't think anyone should do that - but I bet the company does have the stats similar to that).
Of course the company has the info. Iíve been saying for the last year that the company will have more vacancies than eligible FOs. They have to to have a standing bid and DECs. As for hiring, I think that is a lot less strategic. Filling classes based on training capacity and donít care where the go because they can fix that with bids and they have enough on reserve for slop.
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Old 02-02-2019, 11:20 AM
  #507  
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Originally Posted by dera View Post
I added a bit of salt based on a guess that attrition will increase during those 6-7 years. Which is very realistic I'd say, given the hiring needs across all majors.
If I flow in 7 years, I'm very happy. I'll still have ~25 years at American.
Absolutely a fantasy born of hope rather than realism. It is most likely that we will not go 6 years without another recession. The economy just doesn't do that very often. So, even though retirements will continue, there is no guarantee that American will need to replace them. There is also no guarantee that American will remain at its current level of flying. Delta, Southwest, United, Spirit, Frontier and Alaska are all growing. They are upgrading their aircraft and adding in flight services. Mean while, on AA, you may or may not have entertainment and you are lucky if the wifi works. Everything is unpredictable and customers do not like unpredictable. But I know, when I get on any of the airlines I mentioned above, exactly what I will get. As far as I can tell, American is as likely to go the way of Eastern as it is to grow over the next 6 years. Don't assume the flow will stick around.

What my wondering rambling is trying to say is that hiring through out aviation may slow or stop in the coming years and the flow to American may be nonexistent during that same time. Get up and out now before the boom busts. This is exactly like Pre-911. It took 16 years to recover from that. If you aren't at a major before the next bust, you may not ever get there.
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Old 02-02-2019, 12:17 PM
  #508  
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Originally Posted by wildcat1 View Post

What my wondering rambling is trying to say is that hiring through out aviation may slow or stop in the coming years and the flow to American may be nonexistent during that same time. Get up and out now before the boom busts. This is exactly like Pre-911. It took 16 years to recover from that. If you aren't at a major before the next bust, you may not ever get there.
So what you're saying is you should go to a regional that gets you in and out of class the fastest, and lets you upgrade as soon as possible to start building that TPIC time?
Sounds like I made the right choice then.
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Old 02-02-2019, 01:35 PM
  #509  
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Originally Posted by dera View Post
So what you're saying is you should go to a regional that gets you in and out of class the fastest, and lets you upgrade as soon as possible to start building that TPIC time?

Sounds like I made the right choice then.


Exactly!


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Old 02-02-2019, 02:12 PM
  #510  
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Originally Posted by wildcat1 View Post
Absolutely a fantasy born of hope rather than realism. It is most likely that we will not go 6 years without another recession. The economy just doesn't do that very often. So, even though retirements will continue, there is no guarantee that American will need to replace them. There is also no guarantee that American will remain at its current level of flying. Delta, Southwest, United, Spirit, Frontier and Alaska are all growing. They are upgrading their aircraft and adding in flight services. Mean while, on AA, you may or may not have entertainment and you are lucky if the wifi works. Everything is unpredictable and customers do not like unpredictable. But I know, when I get on any of the airlines I mentioned above, exactly what I will get. As far as I can tell, American is as likely to go the way of Eastern as it is to grow over the next 6 years. Don't assume the flow will stick around.

What my wondering rambling is trying to say is that hiring through out aviation may slow or stop in the coming years and the flow to American may be nonexistent during that same time. Get up and out now before the boom busts. This is exactly like Pre-911. It took 16 years to recover from that. If you aren't at a major before the next bust, you may not ever get there.
So you say my post was a "fantasy born of hope rather than realism".
Then you continue to give your fantasy born of hope rather than realism about future growth and recessions etc.

Pilots have always been horrible in predicting what the industry is doing. Just go to the old posts and see what people were predicting in 2014/2015. Back then the hot topics were that Envoy will never get any 175's, Endeavor is going to die in a few months, PDT and Envoy will merge the moment PDT parks their last Dash (this was a confirmed rumor from a reliable source btw...) and flow predictions aren't realistic. Here's a gem I found right away. This guy, a 2013 hire, would flow later this year, just like they predicted back then.

6 year flow? Yeah right. The current guys flowing were hired in July and August of 1999. That's right, 1999!!!

I've done an exhaustive analysis of our seniority list and I just don't see any way possible that we are going to get to a 2 1/2 year upgrade anytime in the next few years. There are over 700 FO's who are going to have to upgrade to make a 2.5 year upgrade possible.

So, where are the vacancy bids? We need to get started on this list of 700 plus FO's so we can get the 2.5 going right? Plus we are going to have to get new hires in to replace those flowing right? I know that we are still shrinking but we don't have too much shrinking left before we are "adequately staffed" for the aircraft on property and deliveries.

I'm just calling BS on this whole 2.5 year upgrade. I'm not even considering the flow right now it's so far out on the horizon. I come to APC to pick up scraps of info as our union gives us zippo. All I hear on the Envoy threads is RAH RAH RAH 2.5/6. I'm telling you. It ain't true. At least right now. I don't buy these BS "projections." You can "project" all you want but I want to see the rubber meet the road in terms of a clear fleet plan, clear flying allocation and most of all...VACANCY BIDS.

I am NOT lateraling to another regional. Sure, it sounds great at Compass right now but what about next year? I'm staying here and putting in apps and exploring all possible avenues. I'm looking at Part 91, Part 135, LCC, anything in addition to my legacy apps. If I get a call for anything a smidge better, I can tell you I'm out of here. The flow ain't happening anytime soon (read 6 years) for us bottom seniority list dwellers son. Realistically, yes, I might flow in 10 years from today.
Or this one, for a 2015 new hire.

But facts are what they are. Right now, today, it's a min of 8 years to upgrade and 16 to flow.
I know this is not a very popular opinion but in the past 4 years, the only one predicting flow rates somewhat accurately has been the company.
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