But at least there’s no chance of getting rid of red/redder now, so, you know…

No way, they’re already preparing to bring on 700/900’s and will likely transition their fleet to larger RJ’s and retire the 200’s.

"just like the mainline"(c)

I’m 3 for 3 on calling well over a year in advance the last regionals to shut down.... without a serious business model change both are in big trouble.

(Called Trans States well in advance... 2017; called Compass in late 2018)

There’s going to be consolidation, contraction, bankruptcies and merger/buyouts. The “safest” places to be will be the WO’s. Endeavor, AAG owned, Horizon. Mesa, Republic & Skywest will survive but will be much smaller. In that process will come stagnation as they shrink through attrition. The one that close will either jump to LCC, ACMI or will be recycled as new hires at a surviving regional.

Regional work rules at the WO’ , contracts, wages and compensation will all get good improvements, and the flow programs will be increased. At contractor jobs they can only raise the pay so much before bankruptcy. The WO’s can be run at a loss to keep feed alive.

So you think SkyWest is down sizing? They’re currently hiring 200 pilots a month, you can’t get a class date until December. The OO school house is saying they need 7,000 pilots in a year and a half. Does that sound like downsizing to you oh wise one?

1.) Where are they getting the planes? SkyWest is grabbing every -700 they can find on the planet right now.

2.) Whose flying are they going to take?

Things really don’t look good for them.

It’s because they don’t want to answer them. With 200 jets leaving the UAX fleet, for some the answer is rather unpleasant.

Doubt they’ll be taking anyone’s flying, they’ll probably just maintain the status quo with newer planes. Now I’m not saying they don’t tank, I think they could however it’s gonna come down to recruitment. I think with the LCC’s eyeing candidates at ATP minimums is gonna drive up regional pay to compete. Some companies won’t be able to do this so people won’t want to work there, they’ll have no pilots become unreliable and lose contracts then shut their doors. Then SkyWest will take their planes and flying. Operational capacity will be maintained just with less operators.

SkyWest owns GoJets planes and has leased out aircraft to other companies before. United also owns some of SkyWest 700’s and if they want AirWis to fly them I’m sure they’ll broker some kind of deal.

If I’m not mistaken at united 50 seaters aren’t limited by scope, so maybe we see them fly the 550? I know that’s what GoJets doing to get around scope.

50 seaters not being scope restricted is kind of a misnomer. They are not limitless, the company is just allowed more than they have ever wanted. They can’t exceed 90% the number of United single aisle aircraft and they’re still part of the overall limit on block hours. GoJet isn’t getting around scope, the 550 is fully compliant. It doesn’t exceed 50 passenger seats and they certified it at a lower weight to meet the weight limit for 50 seat aircraft as defined in the UPA. Since United didn’t order a SNB, the total number of 70/76 seat aircraft is still capped and the 50 seat restrictions remain unchanged. The company can have 200+ new 550’s to replace the single class 50 seaters and still be scope compliant, the determining factors are how many 700’s are available for conversion, and how many they want.

Maxed out on 70/76 seaters. As they pull a 70 seat 700 for conversion, they add a 175 that is seat restricted to 70 seats. Anything over 50 seats is a 70/76 seat aircraft.

yes, they will be. Not today, but as the shortage worsens (like pre-Covid) their attrition will outpace hiring. Why do you think they predict wanting to be hiring 7,000 over 1.5 years?
wanting and doing are two different things.
Republic, Skywest and Mesa will downsize during the shortage. The ones like Commutair, Air Wiskey are in big trouble without serious business model changes.

Maybe, maybe not. But just to clarify, you’re saying WO’s won’t have this problem as well? So how would they not have attrition issues? Unless you’re saying WO pilots are suckers, and will wait forNever to flow?

Oh, and trust me, OO will find it’s own way to react to attrition. They could always create a “flow agreement” themselves if it gets that bad. We’ve been offered a flow before. Honestly I don’t think a “flow” is powerful enough to actually hold guys off from having their Apps in, but maybe I’m wrong?

all the WO’s are run as cost centers. Unlike contractors, that means they technically do not need to generate a profit themselves, so long as their feed to/from generates profit at the mainline. They can, and likely will be, run at a loss to increase wages, improve working conditions and work rules. Vendors can’t compete.
Then, all the WO will have their flows ramped up even more to provide a 4 year or less flow path to their mainline. The mainlines will do the majority of hiring from their WO.
once that happens you’d be a fool to go to a non-WO. Actually, it’s already time if you aren’t already in 121 to focus on WO’s. By the time you upgrade the shortage will stagnate your upgrade at the vendors.

We’ll see what the next six months have in store. Envoy still claiming a five year flow because of attrition and no indication of WILLINGNESS to increase flow. They’re also so far behind on training they couldn’t afford to do it.

I like the fantasy, but the reality is that if AA can afford to run its regionals as "cost centers" and lose money on them, it can also afford to do so with the contractors, many of which are run so much more efficiently (SKYW is to Amazon as Envoy is to the DMV) that they may actually lose less working with a contractor.

It's important to remember that if a wholly owned is struggling to keep up with attrition (which they all will be if they're not already), then management will be actively working against increasing the flow.

Although it's funny because not increasing the flow means more will jump ship to other Majors instead of waiting around, which means AA is essentially training pilots for their competitors.

And there you have the problem. Management that can’t see the sky for the clouds, won’t do anything that might be good for the pilot group and always in reaction mode because of it.

Yeah I think one of my breakthrough moments in understanding the industry was when I realized that management's goal, especially at the regional level, wasn't a win win with pilots but rather to get more than they give.

So they'll actively avoid doing things that could improve the operation or quality of life because they see that as giving up leverage without getting enough back.

The other breakthrough moment is realizing that mainline pilots don’t regard you as junior fellow comrades-in-arms, but as cheap competition undercutting them for mainline passengers and little more than scabs. It was different, perhaps, when regionals were flying 20 pax turboprops on short trips to the hub, but with 85,000 pound regional aircraft carrying 76 pax for 2500 miles from hub to hub, the guys at mainline have ceased to be amused. Look at the threads for Alaska which has no scope but is expanding their flying through OO and QX for an idea of what mainline pilots think of the regionals…

They won’t they have to.
look at the 2014 concession CBA. They wouldn’t listen that the shortage was here, and were just going to move planes to PSA and PDT until we were the next Comair. We told them repeatedly that it was time to start improving the CBA, not worsen it. They signed it in December 2014 and within 4 months we’re giving unlimited hotels in base, hotels for commuters, and A passes when needed.
They furlough right up until flight cancel due to staffing. They hire like crazy right up until they need to furlough.

if you haven’t figured out yet that they do not know what they’re doing, then you never will. They are oiling a machine built long ago by folks much smarter than they’ll ever be. We told Pedro in 2013 that RW wasn’t the guy, that he’d eventually run the airline into the ground. The recent FAA letter just highlights his perpetual zeal to cut costs and corners eventually chipped away enough of the safety net programs that events were happening too frequently for clearly preventable reasons. Nope, D-0 and A-14 are all that count.

rest assured, once things get bad, they’ll increase flow all on their own for recruiting.... no need to buy what you’ll get anyway. I would not be surprised if AA goes to a 75% hiring from their regionals prorated by size. What you guys need is a single list across carriers. Welcome to the 90’s all over again, except this time the staffing shortage gives you better bargaining position.

That's what makes it so depressing/annoying when some folks particularly at the wholly owneds drink the kool-aid and convince themselves that they actually work for mainline.

you answered why they won’t do that yourself. See, you’re learning.

I think mainline pilots don't really think twice about the regionals other than being frustrated by scope.

I think the point attempting to be made is that mainline pilots are not a regional pilots friend, even at the WO’s. Hell even when I first started at Envoy I thought it was one big team, sadly that reality came to a vault rather quickly.

Do I think they hate regional pilots, no. Do I think mainline would lift a finger to help regional pilots, no I don’t.

Like the 777 captain on my jumpseat who said "now who do you work for and is that one of the airlines that we own?" Utterly clueless unless it directly impacts their bubble.

Another LCC taking pilots right out of school. More will be by-passing regionals all together. LCC’s will grow while regionals contract.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-rele...cPrri_qVLVzzB0

Reminds me of back in ancient history, before the days of simulators, airlines (such as TWA), took newbies after ground school into a jump seat. Sit, watch, observe. That is how they learned.

https://viewfromthewing.com/democrat-lawmakers-with-beer-and-no-masks-fly-out-of-texas-to-halt-voting-bill/

Oof, I guess we’re getting an HI6 message about masks tomorrow.

Shouldn’t expect anything else from this lot of lawmakers. Do as I say, not as I do.

it wasn’t Envoy. They were on Intel’s Shuttle..... funny how big tech just showed up offering a plane.
hope the TX AG charges em all if they don’t claim the donation.... Intel too.

Intel kissing *** on those degenerates. Believe the science and science shows you can't fix stupid.

Tip of the day: HI6 messages are not controlling.

Nor are tech notices.