Originally Posted by shfo

Just based off retirement data from APC I have them upgrading at AA when they hit 50% seniority and upgrading onto the 737. I have them as a CA on the 777 the last 12 years of their career.

Based on that, AA will overcome AAY in 2031. Over the course of their career AA would pay out (with the 16% DC) 8,215,120 vs 4,800,000 at AAY. Now include that 1,478,000 you stashed away you are over 6,000,000 which is 2 million less than AA. This is also based on today's numbers which are likely to change and I believe AAY is way more likely to see significant gains than AA.

Originally Posted by 1stCivDivPilot

Not picking sides.....

How much do they make if they go to Alegiant for couple years and get picked up at AA faster outside the flow?

Originally Posted by shfo

Just based off retirement data from APC I have them upgrading at AA when they hit 50% seniority and upgrading onto the 737. I have them as a CA on the 777 the last 12 years of their career.

Based on that, AA will overcome AAY in 2031. Over the course of their career AA would pay out (with the 16% DC) 8,215,120 vs 4,800,000 at AAY. Now include that 1,478,000 you stashed away you are over 6,000,000 which is 2 million less than AA. This is also based on today's numbers which are likely to change and I believe AAY is way more likely to see significant gains than AA.

Originally Posted by ag386

My best guess right now if everything stays good with the economy along with AA metering going forward. About 2020-2021.

Originally Posted by boiler07

Why guess when you can do the math?

Originally Posted by ag386

Or go to Allegiant and get picked up a couple of years later at United, Delta or Southwest.

Originally Posted by 1stCivDivPilot

Not picking sides.....

How much do they make if they go to Alegiant for couple years and get picked up at AA faster outside the flow?

Originally Posted by shfo

I would not be laughing at that Allegiant pilot. We have had a few FOs leave in the past couple of years. I know 3 2011 hires who left in 2014. If they would have stayed, they would be junior line holders commuting half way across the country for uncommutable 4 day trips with 11 days off worth 72 hours.

But they left. After one year making the same they would have at Envoy they upgraded. Now they are making $118,410 a year. Oh and they also live at home and might average 14 days off and 1 overnight a month due to a broken airplane. If they had stayed at Envoy I'll assume they would have upgraded at the end of 2017 (unlikely) but still are on the road 20 nights a month.

Just based off junior line days off and guarantee:

In 2015 their pay is the same it would have been at Envoy but they have 72 more days at home and 228 more nights in their own bed.

In 2016 they will make 83,880 more than Envoy with another 72 more days at home and 228 more nights in their own bed.

In 2017 they will make 84,720 more than Envoy with another 72 more days at home and 228 more nights in their own bed.

At the start of 2018 we'll assume they upgrade at Envoy but now they are on the bottom of the rsv list commuting across the country.

In 2018 they still make 51,660 more at Allegiant than Envoy but now they are home 101 more days and in their own bed 281 more nights.

In 2019 they make 50,700 more at Allegiant.

In 2020 they flow to American but in the 5 years at Envoy they lose out on $270,960, 447 days off 1246 nights in their own bed. And on first year pay at AA they are still making 52,416 less than Allegiant and on the road way more. With that $270,960 that they made at Allegiant if they put that money away in a low risk account with an average 5% return on investment by the time they retire they will have 1,478,183.96.

So who is laughing now?

Originally Posted by ag386

Oh yes I forgot! 2.5 years to upgrade and 6 years to flow. Guess you are about to upgrade since that came out in May 2015.

Dude, get a grip. Your brain is pickled from Envoy juice and you can't see past the Envoy recruiting posters in your room at your parents house.

Where are those big upgrade numbers this year that's going to net you a Captain's seat and that magical flow in just a couple of years from now.

Originally Posted by boiler07

I didn't say anything about those numbers. However, you and I agree about the 2.5 year upgrade. It becomes less of a possibility every day.

Since math isn't your strong suit...

When you account for the different trigger points (40 E75s and the protected pilot rate) a 2011 hire goes in late 2019 or 2020 depending on where they were in the hiring wave that year.