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Old 03-25-2016, 12:56 PM
  #2001  
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I completely agree.

I hope that the Envoy Pilots current and future have it better than I and my "generation."

Barring a catastrophe they almost certainly will.

2.5/6?

I wouldn't start cashing THOSE checks quite yet.
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Old 03-25-2016, 04:18 PM
  #2002  
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Originally Posted by ag386 View Post
You are correct sir. I have stated in previous posts that today: flow is 16 years 2 months or whatever. CR, GiG or Skyvector don't waste any time telling me how I'm "twisting the facts."
16 years 2 months minus the 10 years of no hiring at any legacy.
Tell facts, but include all the facts.

Do you think hiring will stop?
Do you think the 3950 guys with mandatory retirement before 2021 won't retire?
What's 1/2 of 3950?
How many of the 1800ish pilots at Envoy will flow?

With the legacy hiring picking up its little more than insurance, but is still better than what others have.
When they're on the jumpseat We hear nothing except how they wish they had it as the backup too
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Old 03-25-2016, 06:24 PM
  #2003  
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Originally Posted by Cujo665 View Post
16 years 2 months minus the 10 years of no hiring at any legacy.
Tell facts, but include all the facts.
Do you think hiring will stop?
It very well could for any number of reasons. For a decade ? Definitely not likely, but for months or even a couple of years ? Distinctly possible.

Originally Posted by Cujo665 View Post
Do you think the 3950 guys with mandatory retirement before 2021 won't retire?
What's 1/2 of 3950?
How many of the 1800ish pilots at Envoy will flow?
Your figures don't match mine. From now until end of 2020 (4 years, 9 months), I came up with about 2850 age 65 retirements from the combined list. My US Airways numbers may be in question though. Could you verify your figures and source ?

Originally Posted by Cujo665 View Post
With the legacy hiring picking up its little more than insurance, but is still better than what others have.
When they're on the jumpseat We hear nothing except how they wish they had it as the backup too
I'm sure most DO wish they had that deal, but I think many believe jumping ship to the back of that line isn't a good risk. If they did you'd see more defections from other regionals. Probably similar why most Envoy F/O's won't jump ship laterally to chase a faster upgrade.

Last edited by eaglefly; 03-25-2016 at 06:41 PM.
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Old 03-26-2016, 05:52 AM
  #2004  
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Originally Posted by eaglefly View Post
It very well could for any number of reasons. For a decade ? Definitely not likely, but for months or even a couple of years ? Distinctly possible.

Your figures don't match mine. From now until end of 2020 (4 years, 9 months), I came up with about 2850 age 65 retirements from the combined list. My US Airways numbers may be in question though. Could you verify your figures and source ?

I'm sure most DO wish they had that deal, but I think many believe jumping ship to the back of that line isn't a good risk. If they did you'd see more defections from other regionals. Probably similar why most Envoy F/O's won't jump ship laterally to chase a faster upgrade.

3950 was 2015-2021; that is six years from when the company first projected a 6 year flow to AA. Half of the 3950 retirements is well above our entire pilot list of guys who will elect to flow. We've already sent over 500 of the 824. People complain about Envoy shrinking from 3000 to now under 2000 without ever considering that over 850 went via flow to AA. Like it or not, the new AAG is much better than AMR was at making the flow work.

Is it perfect, nope; but it's a better program than anybody else has.
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Old 03-26-2016, 06:00 AM
  #2005  
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Originally Posted by Cujo665 View Post
3950 was 2015-2021; that is six years from when the company first projected a 6 year flow to AA. Half of the 3950 retirements is well above our entire pilot list of guys who will elect to flow. We've already sent over 500 of the 824. People complain about Envoy shrinking from 3000 to now under 2000 without ever considering that over 850 went via flow to AA. Like it or not, the new AAG is much better than AMR was at making the flow work.

Is it perfect, nope; but it's a better program than anybody else has.
I agree that the retirement numbers look great, but how small will we be when another 500 flow? How small can we get?
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Old 03-26-2016, 07:33 AM
  #2006  
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Originally Posted by ORDinary View Post
I agree that the retirement numbers look great, but how small will we be when another 500 flow? How small can we get?
hiring is their problem to fix
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Old 03-26-2016, 08:11 AM
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Originally Posted by Cujo665 View Post
hiring is their problem to fix
Agreed that hiring is their problem to fix and a nice analogy that paints a rosy picture of the last 5 years. As we both know, it hasn't been all that rosy for the pilots that remain at Envoy.

Although hiring is their problem to fix, you do understand that you eventually need replacements for the guys flowing right? Over the past year and a half it has been a non issue as Envoy as shrunk.

At this point, Envoy has stopped shrinking, at least temporarily. It may become permanent though as the other AAG wholly owneds are experiencing the same problem as Envoy. They can't find enough new hires. Tack on RAH's crummy on time record and inability to complete their flying, it does appear that AAG wants to shift some of that 175 flying to Envoy. If this does indeed end up being the case, then it's as I've been saying these past few weeks. By the end of this year, Envoy will find itself in a critical position in regards to staffing.

I'm going to go ahead right now and guarantee you that Parker/AAG are absolutely not going to let any Envoy aircraft sit idle as pilots exit Envoy to AA. They will either flat out claim operational necessity and violate the flow agreement or they will reach some kind of deal with the union that maybe offers a few more bucks but cuts off the flow for an indeterminate period as operational necessity dictates.

Sure, you will cry that it will halt recruiting efforts and no one will come to Envoy. However it appears that's already happened. The few remaining qualified pilots willing to sell their soul to Envoy have all but disappeared. At your seniority, being outside the 824, I would gear up for a longer stint at Envoy than originally planned.
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Old 03-26-2016, 08:43 AM
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Originally Posted by ag386 View Post
I'm going to go ahead right now and guarantee you that Parker/AAG are absolutely not going to let any Envoy aircraft sit idle as pilots exit Envoy to AA.
.

Do you have any clue how many aircraft are already currently parked? Apparently not. It hasn't stopped or slowed the flow yet.

We're actually pulling a few out of storage because we still have staffing.
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Old 03-26-2016, 09:26 AM
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Originally Posted by Cujo665 View Post
hiring is their problem to fix
I agree, but the price of them not fixing it is paid by the pilots.
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Old 03-26-2016, 04:03 PM
  #2010  
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Originally Posted by Cujo665 View Post
3950 was 2015-2021; that is six years from when the company first projected a 6 year flow to AA. Half of the 3950 retirements is well above our entire pilot list of guys who will elect to flow. We've already sent over 500 of the 824. People complain about Envoy shrinking from 3000 to now under 2000 without ever considering that over 850 went via flow to AA. Like it or not, the new AAG is much better than AMR was at making the flow work.

Is it perfect, nope; but it's a better program than anybody else has.
Not what you seemed to insinuate. It was more confidence ALL present Envoy pilots will flow BY 2021. But, to be accurate a new hire of today (or Charlie Bucket from Last May with what, 100 pilots junior to him) are concerned with today's projection forward. If by end of 2020, how many Envoy pilots can flow if only 50% equals 1400 or so ? Not all. Envoy is keen about metering even when they don't have to and can they meter to say 25/month for PP pilots ? If so, by the end of the window you describe (BY 2021), that would be about 300/year or 1300 or so and if Envoy has 1900 pilots the statement all Envoy pilots will flow BY end of 2020 seems not so cut and dried.
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