dfwguy

I was hired late 2000. I'm a bit under a month to 15 years/6 months seniority.

Currently, they are flowing late 1999 guys. In fairness, they should be done with 99 in a couple of months.

Skyvector

Sure ag386...we believe you.

eaglefly

The 10 year assumption seems a bit long to me. A major issue I see with these projections is that be it the most optimistic (5.5 years) or the most pessimistic (10 years) is that they require or at least assume Envoy will maintain its present role and make-up along with all the other WO and non-WO AA regional carriers to maintain theirs. The regional pilot recruitment/retention crisis (along with changes at AA) will inevitably change the present landscape IMO and so that unknown change alone will almost certainly result in major changes to the AAG regional structure and thus alterations to estimations of flow timing. In fact, one possibility is that AAG elects to essentially incorporate some or all of the WO's as part of AA in some form or fashion resulting in essentially one seniority list. That would require some major changes in relationship among the parties, especially AAG management and APA, but depending on the seriousness of the future regional situation, it is within the realm or reasonable possibility.

Again, I think nothing significant will occur until at the very earliest late this year when AA's remaining synergies are enacted like the SLI, PBS, and full contractual implementation. At AA, we may see a lot of fleet shifting and domicile adjustments for 2017 along with a better handle on staffing requirements going forward from there. The regional pilot situation should also have had more time to offer a better outlook there to determine the best strategy going forward and thus what will be done regarding the "Eagle" network. There are several possibilities, some good and some not so good for various pilots (including AA pilots) and until those present themselves, I think any claim of any flow projection is a waste of time. It's certainly something one getting hired today at any of the WO's shouldn't place much weight in from a timing perspective. Since Parker seems to be bucking the trends at Delta and United who are placing a larger percentage of their future bets in the mainline partition and doubling down on large RJ's, should that blow up in his face (and ours), something more radical might be necessary in the future to reverse course so as to maintain market share.

I would think they have been smart enough to have "what if" sessions to ferret out various responses to situations and their implications, but until we see situation X or Y develop, whatever those are will not be communicated publicly. I think they have a rough plan for the Eagle system as of now and it may be very different from what we assume on these forums. The flow claims now are simply a recruiting tool to meet near-term goals of stability IMO. 12-18 months from now, we very well may be talking about a whole new paradigm regarding the relationship between AA and Eagle and their respective pilots.

RyanP

We are seeing a lot more MIA flying and ORD flying from Republic lately dumped into our open time. Listed as Republic flights but we are doing them. I am picking up MIA trips nearly every week now which has been great. I think something is about to happen with that flying they were given and their bankruptcy. We have been covering in MIA for a while, but it is increasing. Now this ORD stuff we are getting back lately to SLC, DEN, IAH, MSY etc is new. Just speculation at this point but we'll see soon enough.

There is rumors of them removing some non flying 170's and it affecting AA. We can only hope they give us MIA back since so many Eagle guys live there still. Probably not going to happen but would be nice.

lakehouse

The may lines will see a massive increase in flying across the aag system

adspilot

So what happened to this GOOD news that was suppose to come out on Friday?

Shiner

It's posts like this that make me glad I don't have you on ignore. Pretty good analysis of AAG and where they're at. It sounds like you're beginning to realize that even if the flow changes in the future, the WO regionals will be gaining leverage with each pilot that leaves.

Where I tend to disagree with you is when you bring up mergers or further whipsawing that will damage the pilot group. I think, for the most part, those games are over. Each WO pilot is an asset and it's beginning to seem like they realize this. The more times goes on, the more pilots leave. The fewer pilots remaining become more important to keeping the operation running. While the bonuses seem gimmicky now, I think they're just the start.

eaglefly

Well, I hope this post won't lead you to reconsider. Theoretically yes, I agree that as the commodity of the regional pilot dwindles further one would think WO pilots or their bargaining agents would gain some leverage, but that doesn't mean it will necessarily translate into anything specific. The flow is likely to change, but AAG has room to adapt and IMO, one likely area for that involves some form of consolidation. That could be between WO's, between WO's and other non wholly-owned's or WO's and AA. Depending on the scenario, I don't necessarily see that translating to pay/benefit improvements for "Eagle" system pilots as a whole (which NOT what the present new-hire incentives or retention bonuses are). Consolidation will require compromise if it is at the regional level among WO's or with a non wholly-owned and AAG IMO will get whatever compromises they desire in critical areas. Any consolidation with AA will be at the approval of not just APA, but AA pilots.

Yes, the bonuses ARE "gimmicky" IMO. I will believe they are serious once the get past gimmicks and provide benefit to all pilots in the form of CBA improvements or consistent advancement methodologies, but most of all in an attitude change. Not just the talk, but the walk. So far that has not occurred either at Envoy or AA. If you want to give them a thumb's up for the present gimmicks (which really aren't working anyway, at least not to the desired degree), that's your call, but I can't support the present feeble efforts as indicative of the change we all seek. When that attitude change occurs (if ever) then I will begin to accept that they value not just regional pilots as "assets", but all pilots and in fact, all employees. The culture change Parker promised has yet to arrive and that culture change should be what trickles down to the Eagle level.

As for whipsawing, I don't recall being of the belief that will occur in the future because as it looks, there will soon be little to whipsaw against. Regarding the flow, I don't consider a uniform policy of equal flow ability for all future Eagle system pilots favoring none to be whipsawing. Whipsawing is pitting two separate groups against each other and in consolidation, it will be about crafting a model that brings groups together offering equal advancement based on seniority and not any type of favored status. It is this latter concept that I still think exists at Envoy and is one reason some get upset if one questions that philosophy's applicability or propriety in the future.

boiler07

What possibilities at the regionals would be detrimental to AA pilots without them giving away scope?

boiler07

Of course envoy pilots don't look favorable on such a situation, and neither would any pilot given the circumstances. Your prediction that it would be purely seniority based is simply wrong, and that is another reason you get such a response from your often inflammatory posts.

Directly from the ALPA merger policy:

Factors to be considered in constructing a fair and equitable integrated seniority list, in no particular order and with no particular weight, shall include but not be limited to the following:

(1) Career expectations.
(2) Longevity.
(3) Status and category.

The career expectations of envoy pilots in terms of flow have been much better than those of a non-wholly owned. Additionally, parts of the flow have existed long before parker spread the flow to the other wholly owned carriers. While these facts are not the end all be all, they certainly would be large factors given our current regional environment. 10 years ago, flow would barely have been a blip on the committee's radar. One might have even said it was insignificant. I don't think one could say that now.