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Old 06-06-2016, 12:22 PM
  #3121  
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Originally Posted by eaglefly View Post
".....you could potentially be at AA by 2020/2021".

Well that sounds like sometime in 2020 and it's mid 2016, so are you saying he could be at AA in a little over 4 years (a 4.75 year flow for someone here 6 months) ?

I think anytime in 2020 is a bit optimistic for a 6 month newbie.
True, you're right.

Ir would be mid 2021. Didnt Mr Wilson said 5.5...??? 😂😂😂😂
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Old 06-06-2016, 12:25 PM
  #3122  
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Originally Posted by chrisreedrules View Post
That's one thing a buddy of mine who is a CA at Endeavor told me. Many who are senior there and have seen how that management operates thinks that they are hiring as many as they can right now and pulling 200s out of the desert as a stop-gap. And then in 2018 when the C-Series starts to be delivered and the cost of crude is projected to go back up, they speculate they may just furlough excess pilots as the 200s are parked again. Endeavor, while certainly the top-paying flavor of the week, isnt as safe a bet as some think. This industry is a Ferris wheel. Those at the top always come down, and those at the bottom inevitably come up. If you aren't already on property when the good news arrives you're likely already too late.
I've read several articles I agree with that have a consistent tone about oil prices. They won't return to to $80-$100/barrel range of the past, but will remain within a $55-$65/barrel range which is I believe now something like $48/barrel. OPEC is toast and the Saudi's will no longer be the swing producer that truly controls the market price. Several other OPEC producers are in trouble and Venezuela is on the verge of collapse. OPEC has maxed production in the hope of knocking out the shale business, but that is and will fail. The estimated break even cost for shale producers is about $50/barrel, so acceptable profits and stable prices are the expected future. As such, inefficient jets like 50-seat RJ's wont be parked on their economics, but on the other factor that renders them immobile.

A lack of pilots.

It may be that any glut of hiring done by Endeavor and others is simply to ensure that larger, advanced RJ delivery schedules are not threatened, which is a smart move. That same situation may just be why Parker is hesitant to commit more E-175's to Envoy as even with everything they can do, Envoy is looking like its contraction may be uncontrollable in the future. I've heard another round a 40 E-175's might be already worked out (just rumor), but banking on Envoy being anything more then an 80 jet airline in the future is risky. Presently at 1300 pilots and change (or so it's said), Envoy could burn the remainder of 824's to AA, have present outside attrition and BARELY staff an 80-jet/800 pilot airline in about 18 months. At that point, the present flow of the PP's threatens the viability of the carrier and something must be done, but what is the question.
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Old 06-06-2016, 12:29 PM
  #3123  
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Originally Posted by PilotJ3 View Post
True, you're right.

Ir would be mid 2021. Didnt Mr Wilson said 5.5...??? ��������
Theoretically, yes, but see post above regarding my opinion on the Protected Pilots.

Something has gotta give by then as the present equation simply won't provide those flow projections unless Envoy is willing to park aircraft and relinquish flying just to flow pilots to AA. At some point, there would be nothing left to park or transfer but E-175's and I can't see that. The 824's might go close to planned (but metered to minimum), but the PP agreement is ripe for alteration, be it by force or more likely agreement, even if reluctantly.
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Old 06-06-2016, 12:51 PM
  #3124  
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Originally Posted by PilotJ3 View Post
True, you're right.

Ir would be mid 2021. Didnt Mr Wilson said 5.5...??? 😂😂😂😂
Unfortunately, you are likely to be unpleasantly disappointed. As a PP or less, your chances of flowing in a reasonable time frame grow longer each month that Envoy falls short of hiring between 35 and 38 people.

Think of it this way, each month that only 15 new hires show up, your flow chances go down exponentially.

Endeavor might not pay off in the long run for this guy, but it sure beats Envoy hands down.
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Old 06-06-2016, 01:18 PM
  #3125  
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Originally Posted by ag386 View Post
Think of it this way, each month that only 15 new hires show up, your flow chances go down exponentially.
Anyone know how many in today's class?
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Old 06-06-2016, 01:35 PM
  #3126  
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Any idea of Reserve times out of ORD on the crj and erj
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Old 06-06-2016, 01:50 PM
  #3127  
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Originally Posted by eaglefly View Post
I've read several articles I agree with that have a consistent tone about oil prices. They won't return to to $80-$100/barrel range of the past, but will remain within a $55-$65/barrel range which is I believe now something like $48/barrel. OPEC is toast and the Saudi's will no longer be the swing producer that truly controls the market price. Several other OPEC producers are in trouble and Venezuela is on the verge of collapse. OPEC has maxed production in the hope of knocking out the shale business, but that is and will fail. The estimated break even cost for shale producers is about $50/barrel, so acceptable profits and stable prices are the expected future. As such, inefficient jets like 50-seat RJ's wont be parked on their economics, but on the other factor that renders them immobile.

A lack of pilots.

It may be that any glut of hiring done by Endeavor and others is simply to ensure that larger, advanced RJ delivery schedules are not threatened, which is a smart move. That same situation may just be why Parker is hesitant to commit more E-175's to Envoy as even with everything they can do, Envoy is looking like its contraction may be uncontrollable in the future. I've heard another round a 40 E-175's might be already worked out (just rumor), but banking on Envoy being anything more then an 80 jet airline in the future is risky. Presently at 1300 pilots and change (or so it's said), Envoy could burn the remainder of 824's to AA, have present outside attrition and BARELY staff an 80-jet/800 pilot airline in about 18 months. At that point, the present flow of the PP's threatens the viability of the carrier and something must be done, but what is the question.
Consolidation will solve some problems for AAG.
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Old 06-06-2016, 02:58 PM
  #3128  
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8 New hires in todays class. All E175! This aint much for their planning.

Time to look at options.
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Old 06-06-2016, 03:48 PM
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Originally Posted by chrisreedrules View Post
Consolidation will solve some problems for AAG.
Yes, at least for a little while and that was the point of my "reluctant agreement" statement to modification of the PP flow provisions instead of by force. A consolidation scenario is very likely to dilute the PP agreement for present Envoy pilots IMO further slowing the timelines being projected at present.
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Old 06-06-2016, 04:24 PM
  #3130  
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Originally Posted by eaglefly View Post
Yes, at least for a little while and that was the point of my "reluctant agreement" statement to modification of the PP flow provisions instead of by force. A consolidation scenario is very likely to dilute the PP agreement for present Envoy pilots IMO further slowing the timelines being projected at present.
I don't think anyone who is more than 1.5 to 2 years from flowing at any of the WOs thinks they are going to flow in the projected time. I think EVY/PDT will merge and perhaps PSA might merge If AAG buys another small regional or maybe we will be sold off. No clue though honestly. If they bought someone it would likely be someone like AWAC.
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