Why Envoy's Flow Doesn't Add Up
#31
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2015
Posts: 416
Per the MEC newsblast and updated thru 3/15/2016 the new hires YTD is 40. So I stand corrected that the average for this year is 16 per month. I expect that to increase now that RAH has declared bk and with the new-hire bonus programs being offered. Could I be wrong? Sure, it's just an educated guess. But at least my estimates have facts behind them rather then the emotional ones you put forth due to your bitterness towards envoy. How's Allegiant kiddo?
#32
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2011
Posts: 894
Here is the facts posted in the picture below. New hire numbers with new 15K bonus addition and DFW E175 classes availabe yet to be determined when that was put out. Supposedly much more interest now for the 175 classes but I don't know for sure. Pilots that have flowed from Eagle before the 824 are not included in this count.
Flows never work?
Worked for these 492 guys the past couple years and people are in class again this month. Yes, it took the current flows forever at Eagle since American didn't hire since what, 2001?. OBVIOUSLY that slowed down everyone's career progression out of here. People see those guys have 16 years seniority and freak out or other idiots try to scare people off by saying it will take new hires 16 years as well since that is what it is for the guys currently. That is the past and applies if you were here during 9/11, AA furloughing, flowbacks, Age 65, bankruptcy etc etc. That stagnation doesn't apply to a new hire that wasn't here yet. Things are moving rapidly now since hiring at AA resumed. Hiring at AA is not going to stop anytime soon unless the whole industry tanks again. In which case we are all screwed anyway.
Other people like to trash the flow and say it will never work to try and justify their decisions to leave, hoping it doesn't work out to make themselves feel better about leaving, or others constantly posting negative predictions about it don't even work here at all and desperately want the new hires to go to their regional instead to fuel their quick upgrade mills. Eaglefly is a special case, which is odd for someone who flowed to AA from here, his main goal on this forum for the past year is just to try and make Envoy not get any new hires at all. For some twisted reason he gets a kick out of it. But whatever, Envoy may suck, nobody is saying it isn't a craphole regional, pretty sure none of us have said this is some amazing place to work. It isn't. (But we are supposedly management salesman). We just work here. It's a regional and it sucks. It's not what it use to be. All the rest of the regionals suck as well, name one that doesn't! This whole regional industry sucks and needs to go away, but the flow here IS working just fine. The REAL numbers below show that.
Screen Shot 2016-03-20 at 6.40.33 PM.jpg
Last edited by RyanP; 03-20-2016 at 05:37 PM.
#33
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2010
Posts: 3,205
What are the points of this many threads about Envoy Flow? Clearly this is probably another REGIONAL pilot, claiming being at a ULCC. As far as some people want to sell envoy, other wants the flying and new hires for their places.
Back in 2012-2014 many regional pilots wanted the demise of American Eagle, because it benefits them. Now that the wheel is turning around, they want to prevent new hires here by bashing the flow, projection, gaining planes and flying back from them that was given because we voted no.
But why every 2 days there's a new thread about this or that? It's Bs...
At least eaglefly worked here at a moment, the original poster never flew here.
Back in 2012-2014 many regional pilots wanted the demise of American Eagle, because it benefits them. Now that the wheel is turning around, they want to prevent new hires here by bashing the flow, projection, gaining planes and flying back from them that was given because we voted no.
But why every 2 days there's a new thread about this or that? It's Bs...
At least eaglefly worked here at a moment, the original poster never flew here.
#34
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2014
Position: Feito no Brasil, CA
Posts: 833
You're only noting the extremes and not mentioning the realists that think the flow will not meet the magic numbers that keep being thrown around by centerport. That's a real, tangible issue.
#35
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Joined APC: Feb 2015
Posts: 591
Ok! Can I just point out ONE HUGE major flaw in your hypothesis?
If we believe anything you say then your end advice should be, "do no go to any regional that flies American Eagle planes."
If AAG won't flow pilots because they need to keep their regional feed going, then why would AAG hire Compass, MESA, Skywest,or any other regional that flies American Eagle jets??
What AAG is going to do is way beyond your comprehension and mine and is all left up to one simple fact. AAG will take the cheapest way out every time. Or at least make the decision that they think will be the cheapest at the time.
If the flow stops or slows mass exodus will happen with envoy pilots. Just like mass exodus will happen if republic touches their pilots contract.
If we believe anything you say then your end advice should be, "do no go to any regional that flies American Eagle planes."
If AAG won't flow pilots because they need to keep their regional feed going, then why would AAG hire Compass, MESA, Skywest,or any other regional that flies American Eagle jets??
What AAG is going to do is way beyond your comprehension and mine and is all left up to one simple fact. AAG will take the cheapest way out every time. Or at least make the decision that they think will be the cheapest at the time.
If the flow stops or slows mass exodus will happen with envoy pilots. Just like mass exodus will happen if republic touches their pilots contract.
Mainline is pulling their flying back in. It's evident. Don't chase flow carrots that aren't going to exist in 5-8 years. Do the math, a pilot hired tomorrow at any regional with a flow will not see their number called until at least 5 years from now, minimum. That's if the flow agreements still even exist then. Anyone with any time in this industry knows that 5 years is nearly an eternity.
#37
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2011
Posts: 894
To be honest. A month ago I would have said they would have never caved and gave us $$$. I thought AAG would NEVER in a million years give our current FO's 20K bonuses. That is a big step in the right direction from them for once. Unheard of in the past with these people. They said they wouldn't give us any retention or any kind of bonus ever just a matter of months ago, yet they just did it out of necessity. Who's to say they won't give more when this scheme isn't enough to try and fight off total collapse of their regional love fest? This is probably just a feeler amount to see if it works. These cheapskates weren't going to go all in yet if they don't have too. If they do decide to pay up like Endeavor in the future, those big classes they are getting over there will be in trouble because this place would all of a sudden be a better choice with a straight no interview flow + $$$.
A lot of things "could" happen.
#39
Banned
Joined APC: Jun 2008
Posts: 8,350
Of course, it's very likely that all AAG needs out of them as by then, other factors will be in place to allow another path that will suffice for for a year or so. In the interim, it could be a very quiet second half of the year at Envoy flow wise.
#40
Banned
Joined APC: Jun 2008
Posts: 8,350
A lot of y'all are looking at this backwards. If Envoy can't staff, that means each pilot they have becomes more valuable. It also means they will be more likely to increase compensation and ease work rules to hang on to everyone they've got.
Head on over to the Mesa thread where current pilots are telling newhires to stay away, so they can get a better contract. Less newhires = more leverage for current pilots, not less.
Also, if the contractual flow is violated, Envoy attrition will probably spike and they would lose more than the 25/month that were flowing.
You guys can't sit here and say, "flow is a carrot, and guys are only staying for the flow." Then turn around and say that the company will shut off the flow and every one will just sit here and wait for it to start again. If they shut it down, many senior FO's down to new FO's will see this as sign of what's to come and bail very quickly.
All that said, I don't have a crystal ball. You guys with your solid predictions and guarantees are fun to read, but the truth usually lies somewhere in the middle. One thing is for sure, it'll be interesting times we're heading into.
Head on over to the Mesa thread where current pilots are telling newhires to stay away, so they can get a better contract. Less newhires = more leverage for current pilots, not less.
Also, if the contractual flow is violated, Envoy attrition will probably spike and they would lose more than the 25/month that were flowing.
You guys can't sit here and say, "flow is a carrot, and guys are only staying for the flow." Then turn around and say that the company will shut off the flow and every one will just sit here and wait for it to start again. If they shut it down, many senior FO's down to new FO's will see this as sign of what's to come and bail very quickly.
All that said, I don't have a crystal ball. You guys with your solid predictions and guarantees are fun to read, but the truth usually lies somewhere in the middle. One thing is for sure, it'll be interesting times we're heading into.
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