Envoy
12-11-2018 | 07:02 PM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 194
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From 2012-2014 there's only 135 pilots still on the list. At 15 per month that group will take 9 months. There are 74 pilots still on the list hired in 2015 so that group would take another 4 months. If AA hiring continues, 2020 is the year you see the flow times really fall.
There's no attrition accounted for in those numbers or any pause in AA's new hire classes. A change in either of those variables could push the flow time forward or back.
12-11-2018 | 07:10 PM
Gets Everyday Off
Joined: Aug 2016
Posts: 6,995
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From: Fully Retired
Word on the street is AA hiring for 2019 is forecast a bit higher than 2018, 1,000 hires vs. 940 hires.
Mandatory retirements will be 637 vs. 538. By 2023 it reaches 957 mandatory retirements.
Mandatory retirements will be 637 vs. 538. By 2023 it reaches 957 mandatory retirements.
12-11-2018 | 07:26 PM
Gets Everyday Off
Joined: Aug 2016
Posts: 6,995
Likes: 1
From: Fully Retired
Flows of 5 years will not be a drawing card when the average regional pilot gets hired by the majors in 5 years. (A guaranteed hire will still have some attraction, but to a lesser degree.)
The world of regionals will change at that point; radically, and for the better for pilots.
12-12-2018 | 09:25 AM
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Aug 2015
Posts: 218
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This year attrition was showing at 200
Lets say all of it above you year 1 and none of it last year, so the average of 100 pilots a year.
We know it should take about a year to flow the remaining PP, so that's a year.
Another year to flow DOS at 15 a month - another year.
If you're #2200 to flow (sound about right for a NH?), then it is
X = 2 + (2000 - 500 - 100X)/12*20
Or
X = 5.82 years (or thereabouts, I'm not good at math)
So about 6 years to flow all things remaining constant.
Lets say all of it above you year 1 and none of it last year, so the average of 100 pilots a year.
We know it should take about a year to flow the remaining PP, so that's a year.
Another year to flow DOS at 15 a month - another year.
If you're #2200 to flow (sound about right for a NH?), then it is
X = 2 + (2000 - 500 - 100X)/12*20
Or
X = 5.82 years (or thereabouts, I'm not good at math)
So about 6 years to flow all things remaining constant.
12-12-2018 | 09:36 AM
In a land of unicorns
Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 7,072
Likes: 103
From: Whale FO
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