newpilotusa

So then, out of question, what is the time to flow for the most recent new hire?

havick206

Anywhere from 4 - 40 years.

The honest answer is no one really knows. Way too many variables. A lot can happen in 5 minutes in aviation.

Pedro4President

I think more like 4- never. No one freaking knows the future. I remember when I got hire here it was a ten year upgrade. When I was awarded the upgrade at twoish years guys at 4-5 years were finishing up IOE. When I'm on IOE it is a one week upgrade. Ten years to one week since I started coming here. Crazy.

Dfwnightflyer

Thanks. I’ve been getting “no standing bid list changes allowed at this time” errors. Is it locked for the bid run I guess?

Regionalsuck

Exactly. Who knows. 4.5yrs to Never? Or maybe they will just roll Envoy into AA when the retiremetns really ramp up. Or maybe the market crashes again and AA furloughs. I was going to upgrade and get to a Major airline in 2-3 years.. At least that was the plan. Met every qual, checked every box I could as a Caucasian Male, did all the extras Like volunteering, Check Airman, yada yada. Still here over a decade later due to unforeseen circumstances.

If you want to know what your airline career and flow time will look like, look at 100 year stock market chart. It will be just like that, there will be times when things are going good and everybody wants in on it, then it crashes and the rats all bail off the ship making it even worse, then things will start trending towards good again, then another crash and more huge setbacks.. Timing of getting into the chart can make it much better or much worse depending on when you get in.. but the crashes and downturns are inevitable and nobody can predict with certainty when or how bad they will be. You may get lucky and avoid the bad all together for a while, who knows.

In my time here there were 4 major crashes with some smaller crashes along the way killing any upward trends.. age 65 rule, Bankruptcy, then losing half our fleet and losing 5 domiciles over the past decade. We are now in the biggest steepest uptrend we have seen in a long time (which inevitably leads to a huge negative corrective move eventually).

We are stuck in a seniority based industry that causes huge delays and career resets if ANYTHING goes wrong, so it is what it is. Literally everyones experience and time to get anything in this industry is based on your hire date. Someone who was hired 5 years ago will have a completely different experience than someone hired 3 weeks ago. Someone hired 2 weeks before you can have a completely different outcome than you do. Everyone around you on the forums and on the seniority list will have a different time/position on that hypothetical chart.... In my group people that were hired in the same year as me just a few months later had a 3-4 year difference in upgrade time. There is no way to answer these type of questions with anything other than a random guess. You could say things are "trending" towards a 5ish year flow. But then again, There is a saying... every trend comes to an end. Will you get out in time? Or not? Nobody really knows what is in store for the next decade here. Make your best guess based on what is going on at the time and hang on for the ride. 2 years ago I would have said there is no way in hell we have new hire upgrades. 10 year ago I would have said there is no way in hell I will still be here in 2017.

bigtime209

Unpredictable, but if we flowed the minimum contractual number of pilots every single month without any delays and every pilot on the seniority list waited for the flow, a pilot hired today would be looking at over 8 years to flow. Unexpected delays and attrition will cause this number to vary.

highflyer1980

My answer is the same as the others above. However, my flow date (month/year) has been pretty consistent with the previous approximations provided by ALPA in the past. The question is will there not be any unforeseen events that will cause the industry to collapse into despair again? It doesn’t even take terrorism to cause a major problem. Tomorrow an announcement to merge all the WOs together. That could set someone back months/years back. Or Envoy could decide that they can staff the airline well and flow pilots above minimum required. No guarantees. Welcome to the jungle.

Note: if you asked a recruiter, depending on how “honest” they are, 5-9 years at the current state.


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Icaruss

So let’s say you have a commuter hotel booked through an RF entry while on Reserve one day. Then you get a call that you have an overnight trip that same night, how do you cancel that commuter hotel reservation?

Jersdawg

Check the RF form - there is a cancel option. Send it again and select that option.

3GreenKSNA

The hotel desk at Crew Scheduling works to if you are tight on time. Option 7 I think.

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