They already announced in one of the flight ops updates to expect another bid at the start of the first quarter. I don't think they upgraded the ammount you would have expected with the last bid because they didn't have enough first officers to backfill. We really haven't run many new hire classes in a long time so all these new guys coming online will start the cycles again, once we get more Fo's online they will continue to upgrade and likely hire. My guess is that hiring may slow down for the summer but as Delta starts to hire and UAL goes to full scale hiring this fall we will be hiring on both sides.

337 new hires is not possible in that time frame. I think there might be 337 training cycles for 200-700 transitions. That would make sense given the ammount of movement in the last bid. either way people, the training dept is busy and thats a good thing. People hired today will have a very short upgrade (2-3 years)... For anyone from 1400-1050 we are looking at 7+ years.... anyways just my .02

 

I heard Line Check Airmen have been told they will be 100% LCA duties until further notice, not line bidding. That hasn't happened for about 6 years. Something is on the horizon.

 

That's great news to see hiring and upgrading. Hopefully 2-3 year upgrade becomes a reality but I think that's still a pipe dream at this point.

 

LCA bid normally whether their busy or not.

 

Please don't give the new guys that kind of expectation; it's just cruel.

 

That would also explain the 4 new LCAs up in IAD.

I had a trip taken for LCA OE 2 weeks ago. So it begins!

 

Look, it's just a speculation so take from it what you want. I'm guessing my upgrade will be just about 7 years if I can't get out before then. I have said many times on this forum that I think in the long term XJET combined will shrink. That said, if Delta, United, USair and AMR all start hiring then I don't see why you shouldn't expect a three year upgrade. It looks like that will start to happen sometime in 2013.

My opinion is formed through constructing all the expected retirement numbers and applying that to an average attrition at asa/xjet. What would you have me say, expect a 7 year or more upgrade like the pilots hired near my seniority? It's unrealistic. Before you give me the anything could happen, terrorist attacks, politicians, manbearpig attack etc. (as most pilots on angry pilot central do) I totally concede that to be the case. The difference is that when I was hired upgrade was 2-3 years. Now it's 7 years so it can't get much worse from here for a regional. Giving guys a realistic idea of major hiring and future pilot attrition based on current facts and future hiring statistics is prudent.

 

Fair enough. I was mostly being sarcastic. However the same factors you mentioned pointed to an unquestionable pilot shortage and a 2-3 year upgrade for us, yet here we both are looking at 7 years and counting. I don't expect something like age 65 to happen again but one only needs to look around the regional industry to see how projections can reverse on management's missteps or mainline partner whims.

 

I agree. You can't predict something like that in the airline business. NO ONE knows what will happen a year from now. Never mind two or three. I'll bet even God himself can't predict the future of an airline. Which would reinforce the theory that Satin himself created the airlines

 

Don't joke about Manbearpig.