Doesn’t make sense to me either. We have only about 15 more pilots than pre-pandemic. We are having attrition. If we have enough for next summer than apparently all this growth is not occurring.


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that’s not what I heard. The question was -into next year; will you have enough pilots.
answer yes. We’re fat on crews but we’ve been intentionally ahead of the curve. We have enough for Q1 and continue hiring for expected growth. Q1 is not ‘summer.
BB also emphases the long lead time between hiring (and upgrading)) to the line. In effect we must have the number of pilots on property we need several months before we *need* them.
the tone of the call was pretty positive with lots of upside. If you’re gonna worry; find something else to worry about. Frontiers’ growth isn’t it…

 

Thanks! Good summary

 

Eh...

Growth is going to be an issue. It always will be given our contract/rates. Being "ahead" of the hiring curve might be ok for now going into Q2 (and maybe Q3) of next year, but sooner or later, we are going to need pilots that aren't available (or that are for only a short while).

Only a contract re-negotiation will solve the growth issue.

 

Some numbers to consider: from the Seniority List archive - 'Pre Pandemic" -the oldest I have is Q1 2019. We had 1400 Pilots and about 85 Planes.
Today we have ~110 and near 1700 (November class, SL not yet published)
That's a pretty consistent ratio of approximately 16 crews per tail.
Growth in Pilot numbers closely correlates with growth in aircraft. unsurprisingly; as utilization over the near 3 year period has been consistently high.

Again. F9 growth. Worry less :-)

 

I agree, but it's not a Frontier specific problem. a quick look at the FA Airman Registry over the last 5 years shows about 10,000 growth in active ATPs, and a decline in PPLs..
Aviation is becoming more of a career than a pastime. Go figure.
I'd suggest that, relative to other 'Professions' flying is becoming less attractive, but there's still growth.
Does the number cover retirements? Before the Covid buy out of the top of the seniority list, near enough. Enough to keep the lights on in the industry and increase the upward pressure on pay. 5 years ago, regionals had just begun to introduce signing bonuses et al.
Post Covid, the recovery messes up everyone's plans.
I think we're going to see Airline crew rates rise, and hopefully in a meaningful way. There's also likely to be something of an arms race between different carriers.
We won't struggle to attract and retain crews to the extent the operation suffers in the medium term. We may very well get paid more for coming to work, -before the next round of contract talks.
-Just an opinion, obviously..
//PL

 

It's hard to imagine that as a pilot group we won't be in the driver's seat in the next round of negotiations.

The company will be under very strong pressure to be about to hire and retain. Nothing but good news for us

 

That’s optimistic given our last round of negotiations.

 

to say the least ^^^^^

 

Being frustrated and jaded after our last battle is understandable, but the timing of the company coming to the table with something votable was as predictable and obvious as the sun rising tomorrow. I had always wagered that the company wouldn’t come forward until early 2019. I was pleasantly surprised when it happened slightly sooner. The real growth at F9 didn’t kick into overdrive until 2019. Prior to that, while we were receiving new aircraft, we were also returning and retiring quit a few resulting in limited net growth. We were getting by in the hiring department with what we had. The company had no reason to come forward and play ball any sooner than they did.

This time around is different. Planned growth will be non-stop and, between the 10 white tails and the new order for 91 more 321s, we are now about to grow by over 100 extra planes in nearly the same time frame of the original growth plan. Pilots will be needed and we will be competing against the legacies. Let’s face it… the legacies could pay LESS than Frontier and there would still be many pilots that would choose them over us if given the choice.

We will be at the back of the pattern again for this round of negotiations. Indigo’s hand will be forced to make a move if they want to keep talent coming through the doors. We’re also a publicly traded company now. It’s a bit more difficult for the company to claim financial hardship when we have nearly $1 billion in the back and they just bought 235 new airplanes for F9 alone. I’m not saying that it won’t be without its frustrations or that the union and the company will be sitting around the negotiation table singing kumbaya, but the environment and leverage are very different this time around.