I think I'll start tracking the hiring projection estimates. It seems like we keep hearing of 20+ per month hiring, but then a month or two later we skip a few months' worth of classes and then we run a class of a dozen or so, etc.

I have some historical seniority lists downloaded at different times this year. I realize this method of counting won't account for attrition, but here's what's showing for the 2016 calendar year:

January -- 22 (-2)
February -- 19 (0)
March -- 16 (-2)
April -- 15 (0)
May -- 6 (-1)
June -- 17 (-1)
July -- 0 (x)
August -- 17 (n/a)
September -- 20 (n/a)

Total through September 132 pilots
Average of 14.67 per month
On track for 176 this year based on the average so far

The ( -xx) next to each month's number is how many people are missing from that class as of the October 1, 2016 seniority list.

Does anyone remember what the company projected for 2016 hiring?

I'll readily admit that this isn't scientific and it might not even be 100% accurate. I'm too lazy to go find a pair of reader glasses and my vision is a bit fuzzy this time of day so I may have mis-counted along the way. Sucks to get old.

Edit to add retirements…

So far we've had 6 people retire due to age this year. We'll have one more before the end of 2016.

2017 is showing a total of 9 age retirements on the books. 2 of the 9 scheduled to retire are currently on some sort of leave of absence.

 

I remember the recruiters talking up 250 hires for 2016 for quite a while.

 

How long have people been waiting from application submission until they're notified for an interview?

And how long till class start?

 

I think the process moves along rather quickly.
Once you submit your stuff I believe they notify you within a week or two if your qualified.
Seems they give folks about 2 weeks to prepare for interview.
They tell you the same day of the interview if your hired or not.
Then class is usually 1-2 months out.

 

Last year I got a call for interview 2 days prior. Offered a choice of start 2 or 6 weeks away. Depends on their requirements at the time.

 

I was thinking it was 200. Either way it seems we hired less than their projections. So now they are saying they want to hire 300 between now and the end of 2017, so I guess they mean over the next 14 months. That's about 20-22/ month average. I did hear they wanted to run some classes of 28 in early 2017. They probably plan on a slow down during the summer again, giving an average of 20/ month.

I think the number of retirements is virtually negligible (not even 1/ month average), what probably won't be is attrition of FOs to the legacies. That's probably really what they meant, FOs "retiring" to go fly at United

 

The company is going after flight attendants for their comments on Facebook. Just be careful guys. It's not worth giving them the satisfaction.

 

I meant in facebook. But yeah.

 

Check out www.airlineinterviews.com . It's very accurate. I used it to prepare for my interview (along with Angie Marshall at Cage Consulting) and felt very well prepared. I interviewed in Feb, was hired, and started class in May this year.

 

Speaking about hiring numbers... 20 were scheduled to start the OCT class and 18 showed up according to a friend in that class.