"And I think it's gonna be a long, long time...
...Rocketman22
Burnin' out his fuse up here alone"

 

How do you come up with 7-10 years? I think you'll be an FO for 20...

Good now we have 2-5, 7-10, and now 20 years.

 

We have 3200 +/- pilots on property right now.

If you assume about a 70% seniority for the most junior CA, you would need 4500 pilots (give or take) for the guy at #3200 (hired in 2016) to be awarded a CA slot.

We are scheduled to take 91 320s/321 through 2023. We're also scheduled to take 24 190s by then as well, but I would bet a month's salary we'll never see them.

So if you assume 14 pilots per aircraft order, through 2023, you're looking for an additional 1274 pilots (91 x 14). Add that to the 3200 we have right now, and you get the 4500 pilots on property. There's your 7 years.

Obviously, things might change, but if a new hire is planning to upgrade prior to 7 years, I think they're being a bit aggressive. We have a VERY young pilot group as well. Maybe 150 retirements through 2023, so not a lot of upward mobility that way either.

Sorry for the reality check.

 

Yeah but aren't you assuming that no one above #3200 quits, dies, gets medically DQ'd, abducted by aliens, etc.?

I have no idea how many guys do that each year, but I'm quite positive it's not zero (nor statistically insignificant).

 

78 people retired, quit, died, got medically dq'd, or got abducted by aliens in 2015.

My guess is that will increase. In fact the company hired in 2015 with an estimate of 150 attrition.

Assuming the plane count increases as specified above, and assume a modest 100 attrition per year, I'd say 5 years is realistic.

Time on reserve though? I'll let someone else discuss that but my wild guess would be a minimum of another 5 years.

 

Just using United as an example... with UAL 2018 third year fo pay at $150 hr a320 + 16% dc plan + larger equipment (if you want it) .. You will see a lot more people beginning to jump ship. (Personal opinion only, I know theres other factors than just pay)

 

Last I heard 16 quit, died, moved on, or were fired in January...


Just about everyone I fly with says they know someone that's going to DAL... Few weeks ago a guy knew 5 people that were going to DAL alone...

Idk. I think your estimate is fine on 7 years.... If no one leaves, and growth slows down... I think a 3-5 year estimate is pretty accurate.

What do I know though.

Also required retirements and actual retirements are very different.. Just because 150 retire by 2023 doesn't mean that 300 won't retire...

 

I think this is a good projection of the future for a newhire today. Anyone coming here should plan on 7yrs to upgrade. If it happens early? Great! But don't come here expecting a 3yr upgrade or else you're setting up for big disappointment.

When I came here 5 years ago the junior 190/320 upgrades were 6 and 8 years respectively. I expected that to hold true, or even extend longer, but found other reasons for choosing JetBlue (living in base was the biggest). I'd urge others to think this way as well, and not try to chase an upgrade.

 

So, where in NH do pilots live?

 

Seacoast area- Exeter, Stratham, Brentwood

Manchester area- Londonderry, Windham

Concord area- Bow

I'd recommend the Seacoast area since commuting on Rt95/Rt1 during rush hour is more tolerable than Rt93 coming from Manchester or Concord. They are all good options though.