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Old 03-06-2016, 04:25 PM
  #7201  
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Originally Posted by grim04 View Post
No. I'd bet 7-10 years maybe on 190 if it's still here.
How do you come up with 7-10 years? I think you'll be an FO for 20...

Good now we have 2-5, 7-10, and now 20 years.
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Old 03-06-2016, 06:36 PM
  #7202  
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Originally Posted by feltf4 View Post
How do you come up with 7-10 years? I think you'll be an FO for 20...

Good now we have 2-5, 7-10, and now 20 years.
We have 3200 +/- pilots on property right now.

If you assume about a 70% seniority for the most junior CA, you would need 4500 pilots (give or take) for the guy at #3200 (hired in 2016) to be awarded a CA slot.

We are scheduled to take 91 320s/321 through 2023. We're also scheduled to take 24 190s by then as well, but I would bet a month's salary we'll never see them.

So if you assume 14 pilots per aircraft order, through 2023, you're looking for an additional 1274 pilots (91 x 14). Add that to the 3200 we have right now, and you get the 4500 pilots on property. There's your 7 years.

Obviously, things might change, but if a new hire is planning to upgrade prior to 7 years, I think they're being a bit aggressive. We have a VERY young pilot group as well. Maybe 150 retirements through 2023, so not a lot of upward mobility that way either.

Sorry for the reality check.
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Old 03-06-2016, 08:48 PM
  #7203  
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Originally Posted by BunkerF16 View Post
We have 3200 +/- pilots on property right now.

If you assume about a 70% seniority for the most junior CA, you would need 4500 pilots (give or take) for the guy at #3200 (hired in 2016) to be awarded a CA slot.

We are scheduled to take 91 320s/321 through 2023. We're also scheduled to take 24 190s by then as well, but I would bet a month's salary we'll never see them.

So if you assume 14 pilots per aircraft order, through 2023, you're looking for an additional 1274 pilots (91 x 14). Add that to the 3200 we have right now, and you get the 4500 pilots on property. There's your 7 years.

Obviously, things might change, but if a new hire is planning to upgrade prior to 7 years, I think they're being a bit aggressive. We have a VERY young pilot group as well. Maybe 150 retirements through 2023, so not a lot of upward mobility that way either.

Sorry for the reality check.

Yeah but aren't you assuming that no one above #3200 quits, dies, gets medically DQ'd, abducted by aliens, etc.?

I have no idea how many guys do that each year, but I'm quite positive it's not zero (nor statistically insignificant).
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Old 03-06-2016, 10:51 PM
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Originally Posted by Max Relax Roll View Post
Yeah but aren't you assuming that no one above #3200 quits, dies, gets medically DQ'd, abducted by aliens, etc.?

I have no idea how many guys do that each year, but I'm quite positive it's not zero (nor statistically insignificant).
78 people retired, quit, died, got medically dq'd, or got abducted by aliens in 2015.

My guess is that will increase. In fact the company hired in 2015 with an estimate of 150 attrition.

Assuming the plane count increases as specified above, and assume a modest 100 attrition per year, I'd say 5 years is realistic.

Time on reserve though? I'll let someone else discuss that but my wild guess would be a minimum of another 5 years.
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Old 03-07-2016, 03:42 AM
  #7205  
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Just using United as an example... with UAL 2018 third year fo pay at $150 hr a320 + 16% dc plan + larger equipment (if you want it) .. You will see a lot more people beginning to jump ship. (Personal opinion only, I know theres other factors than just pay)
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Old 03-07-2016, 03:51 AM
  #7206  
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Originally Posted by blueFroggy View Post
78 people retired, quit, died, got medically dq'd, or got abducted by aliens in 2015.

My guess is that will increase. In fact the company hired in 2015 with an estimate of 150 attrition.

Assuming the plane count increases as specified above, and assume a modest 100 attrition per year, I'd say 5 years is realistic.

Time on reserve though? I'll let someone else discuss that but my wild guess would be a minimum of another 5 years.

Last I heard 16 quit, died, moved on, or were fired in January...


Just about everyone I fly with says they know someone that's going to DAL... Few weeks ago a guy knew 5 people that were going to DAL alone...

Idk. I think your estimate is fine on 7 years.... If no one leaves, and growth slows down... I think a 3-5 year estimate is pretty accurate.

What do I know though.

Also required retirements and actual retirements are very different.. Just because 150 retire by 2023 doesn't mean that 300 won't retire...
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Old 03-07-2016, 04:51 AM
  #7207  
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Originally Posted by BunkerF16 View Post
We have 3200 +/- pilots on property right now.

If you assume about a 70% seniority for the most junior CA, you would need 4500 pilots (give or take) for the guy at #3200 (hired in 2016) to be awarded a CA slot.

We are scheduled to take 91 320s/321 through 2023. We're also scheduled to take 24 190s by then as well, but I would bet a month's salary we'll never see them.

So if you assume 14 pilots per aircraft order, through 2023, you're looking for an additional 1274 pilots (91 x 14). Add that to the 3200 we have right now, and you get the 4500 pilots on property. There's your 7 years.

Obviously, things might change, but if a new hire is planning to upgrade prior to 7 years, I think they're being a bit aggressive. We have a VERY young pilot group as well. Maybe 150 retirements through 2023, so not a lot of upward mobility that way either.

Sorry for the reality check.
I think this is a good projection of the future for a newhire today. Anyone coming here should plan on 7yrs to upgrade. If it happens early? Great! But don't come here expecting a 3yr upgrade or else you're setting up for big disappointment.

When I came here 5 years ago the junior 190/320 upgrades were 6 and 8 years respectively. I expected that to hold true, or even extend longer, but found other reasons for choosing JetBlue (living in base was the biggest). I'd urge others to think this way as well, and not try to chase an upgrade.
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Old 03-07-2016, 04:58 AM
  #7208  
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So, where in NH do pilots live?
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Old 03-07-2016, 05:22 AM
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Originally Posted by Buford View Post
So, where in NH do pilots live?
Seacoast area- Exeter, Stratham, Brentwood

Manchester area- Londonderry, Windham

Concord area- Bow

I'd recommend the Seacoast area since commuting on Rt95/Rt1 during rush hour is more tolerable than Rt93 coming from Manchester or Concord. They are all good options though.
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Old 03-07-2016, 05:38 AM
  #7210  
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NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--

JetBlue (JBLU) today announced the launch of its seventh pilot recruiting pathway, Gateway Select, the airline’s new competency-based training program for aspiring pilots. Applications for Gateway Select can be submitted starting today at JetBlue Pilot Gateway Programs.

JetBlue also announced it will partner with CAE (NYSE:CAE; TSX:CAE) to help deliver Gateway Select’s training curriculum, leveraging CAE’s experience in delivering competency-based training programs to airlines throughout the world.

Gateway Select allows participants the opportunity to become JetBlue pilots after completing a rigorous four-year training program that incorporates classroom learning, extensive real-world flying experience and instruction in full-flight simulators. The highly selective program is designed specifically for candidates without previous aviation training who demonstrate the most desired qualities in a pilot.

With Gateway Select, JetBlue hopes to train and hire high-quality pilots while also making the profession more accessible to a broader range of candidates with diverse backgrounds and experiences. JetBlue anticipates the program will open up the profession by helping make the dream of becoming a pilot a reality to people who would not have had the opportunity.

“Many dream of becoming a pilot but are deterred by financial realities,” said Warren Christie, senior vice president of safety, security, and training, JetBlue. “We have an opportunity to create the best pilot training program in the U.S. while also removing some of the economic and social barriers so that those with the natural aptitude can pursue their dream.”

Highly Selective Applicant Assessments

Applicants will undergo a series of assessments aimed at identifying those who demonstrate the qualities needed to become a high-performing pilot. The evaluation is based on recommended International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) pilot competencies and JetBlue’s own selection criteria, including commitment to JetBlue’s unique customer-focused culture.

First, applicants will complete locally proctored tests covering a range of skills like multitasking, critical thinking, spatial orientation, and hand-eye coordination. Those who qualify from the initial assessment will advance to an onsite testing and interview process at JetBlue.

Of the final candidates participating in the onsite testing, 24 will be offered a placement in Gateway Select. They will begin the program in a series of small groups, with the first targeted to begin in late summer 2016.

Rigorous Training

Gateway Select takes the best from training programs used by the U.S. military and international airlines, and applies the same safety standards and federal requirements as current pilots.

“Much like the model U.S. military pilot training programs use, we have built a challenging curriculum that uses a consistent operating philosophy from the very first day of training,” Christie said. “This is a major advancement in commercial pilot training. The traditional path will continue to produce excellent pilots, and now we will supplement the talent pool with pilots who are trained specifically for safe and efficient operations at JetBlue.”

“Over the past 10-plus years, CAE has established itself as a trusted partner of JetBlue in the oversight of its training equipment operations at JetBlue University,” said Nick Leontidis, CAE’s group president, Civil Aviation Training Solutions. “We now have a unique opportunity to further tap into our breadth of flight training capabilities and support JetBlue in providing world-class training built for the next generation of pilots.”

Through the intensive four-year program, pilot trainees will complete a series of training phases, with constant guidance and mentorship from JetBlue, to build the skills and experience required of a pilot for a major airline:

Trainees will begin at JetBlue University in Orlando for four weeks with the fundamentals of aviation.
Trainees will continue to CAE’s flight academy in Phoenix for 30 weeks to develop core flying skills. Upon completion, candidates will receive their private pilot’s license.
Trainees will then return to JetBlue University for training on highly complex transport category aircraft, concluding with the completion of the Airline Transport Pilot – Certification Training Program (ATP-CTP). Training will include the safe and efficient operation of the Embraer 190 (E190).
Next, trainees will return to CAE in Phoenix for 12 weeks of additional FAA licensing requirements. Trainees will then attend an instructor course to achieve their CFI (certified flight instructor) qualifications and ratings. Upon completion, trainees will then begin working as entry-level salaried instructors for CAE’s flight academy while accumulating flight hours to achieve the FAA’s 1,500 flight-hour requirement.
Once meeting the FAA and Gateway Select requirements, pilots will become a new hire at JetBlue, where they complete the same orientation and six-week instruction that all E190 first officers complete.

Supporting Accessibility to and Diversity in the Profession

Recognizing the need to support further diversity into the pilot profession, JetBlue will work to recruit applicants from minority colleges and technical schools, and partner with organizations seeking to promote greater inclusion in the pilot community.

"Gateway Select offers an innovative approach to pilot development that pushes beyond the traditional barriers and opens a unique opportunity to pursue a career in the cockpit based on a candidate’s aptitude,” said Captain Karl Minter, chairman, Organization of Black Aerospace Professionals. “JetBlue has shown a passion for encouraging youth to pursue their dreams of a career in aviation with projects like our ACE Academy. With Gateway Select, JetBlue is also providing an additional path to those careers.”

“JetBlue has long been a supporter of Women in Aviation and its efforts to encourage women to pursue careers in aviation,” said Women in Aviation President Dr. Peggy Chabrian. “JetBlue’s new Gateway Select program is an exciting new way to create meaningful pathways for students to pursue their dream of flying. We are particularly confident that the program will encourage more women to consider an aviation career.”

Because the traditional model requires pilots to make a significant financial investment over numerous years without the guarantee of a job, Gateway Select has been designed to bring more predictability and a lower overall cost to aspiring pilots.

Trainees will receive a contingent job offer at the beginning of the program, guaranteeing them a position with JetBlue if they complete all elements of the program successfully. Trainees will also have an opportunity to earn a competitive salary while working as entry-level flight instructors with CAE.

JetBlue hires hundreds of new pilots every year, recruiting through its seven pilot pathways. These pathways include University Gateway, Blue Dart Sponsorship and qualified first officer recruiting. Information about all of JetBlue’s pilot recruitment pathways, including Gateway Select, can be found at JetBlue Pilot Gateway Programs.

About JetBlue

JetBlue is New York's Hometown Airline™, and a leading carrier in Boston, Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood, Los Angeles (Long Beach), Orlando, and San Juan. JetBlue carries more than 35 million customers a year to 96 cities in the U.S., Caribbean, and Latin America with an average of 900 daily flights. For more information please visit jetblue.com.

About CAE

CAE is a global leader in the delivery of training for the civil aviation, defense and security, and healthcare markets. We design and integrate the industry's most comprehensive training solutions, anchored by the knowledge and expertise of our 8,000 employees, our world-leading simulation technologies and a track record of service and technology innovation spanning seven decades. Our global presence is the broadest in the industry, with 160 sites and training locations in 35 countries, including our joint venture operations, and the world's largest installed base of flight simulators. Each year, we train more than 120,000 civil and defense crewmembers, as well as thousands of healthcare professionals. CAE

Follow us on Twitter @CAE_Inc


View source version on businesswire.com: JetBlue Launches ?Gateway Select? Pilot Training Program | Business Wire

Contact:
Media:
JetBlue Corporate Communications
+1-718-709-3089
[email protected]
or
CAE
Hélène V. Gagnon, +1-514-796-5536
Vice President, Public Affairs and Global Communications
[email protected]
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