Forecast for AA pilot retirements to 2025

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04-21-2010, 01:12 AM

#21

Rider850

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[quote=Gearjerk;799036]1890 guys/gals on furlough. (Per APC)

1987 furloughs,now. Add 35 FT from AE,then 244 FT from AE,then 800+ FT from AE. Your looking at 3,000 to transfer,recall,whatever. Assume,AA will have growth. I doubt it. Not the trend.

04-21-2010, 03:54 AM

#22

aa73

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Re: senior CAs retiring

It's very simple... when the B Fund went way up a couple years ago, guys didn't retire because they wanted to see if it went up even more.

When the B fund went way down, guys didn't retire because they wanted to wait for the rebound.

No different than gambling in Vegas. I'd guess retirements will stay around 5-10/month until age 65 kicks in.

04-21-2010, 04:26 AM

#23

acl65pilot

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Gearjerk

1890 guys/gals on furlough. (Per APC)

Your "simple math"

assumes that all of them will return to AA. I'd venture to say that at least a third, if not closer to a half of all those furloughed, have either found other flying jobs, or have found other "opportunities" outside of aviation all together.

Fly safe,

GJ

I know for a fact that there are many of the TWA guys and AMR guys sitting at ASA waiting for a call. Many have not been able to jump to another major, so they will take the recall when they get it.

04-21-2010, 04:38 AM

#24

Beagle Pilot

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Rider850

1987 furloughs,now. Add 35 FT from AE,then 244 FT from AE,then 800+ FT from AE. Your looking at 3,000 to transfer,recall,whatever.

It's 527 who will transfer (the flow throughs). The 824 are preferential hiring at a rate of 50% but limited to 20/month at Eagle management's discretion. This means if a class has 50 in it, 30 could be off the street, but it if only has 20 in it, then 10 will be Eagle.

04-21-2010, 04:46 AM

#25

Beagle Pilot

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Gearjerk

Your "simple math"

A good guess, but it's probably even less than a third. IIRC, when DAL recalled it was 1 out of 14. After 8 years on the street, many furloughed pilots have indeed found new careers. Several have returned to active duty military and plan on deferring recall until they retire. AA is a little different due to their flowing back of over 500 pilots to Eagle. The recall acceptance rate of those pilots is expected to be much higher than normal.

However, there are other factors to consider: http://www.airlinepilotforums.com/re...tml#post799007

04-21-2010, 05:06 AM

#26

shiznit

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What will be VERY interesting is when AA buys JB and the guys that have a sen. # from AA and are on furlough, but are currently a CA at JB.

Wouldn't that be a kicker.

04-21-2010, 05:07 AM

#27

AceOnTheRiver

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Beagle Pilot

Isn't part of their retirement based upon their highest pay in the last five years? Is it the highest or the average of the highest?

If it's the highest, it would seem to be better to wait for the new contract since I'm sure it will involve a healthy pay raise. I'm sure some of those guys are getting a little anxious since they are now into year four(?) of negotiations.

I don't see them risking a strike to stay around when the B-fund is back to where it was when they made the mistake to not retire. You have to remember people still talk of a double dip recession as a possibilty. If I was one of those guys I would be out the door before Kalta blows it's top.

04-21-2010, 07:08 AM

#28

tone

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Once AA starts hiring there will be a pilot shortage, since by then every pilot in the world will have died of old age

04-21-2010, 07:14 AM

#29

Beagle Pilot

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Quote:

Originally Posted by AceOnTheRiver

Agreed they won't strike, but we may differ a bit on the exact line of reasoning. It's interesting that it's the TWU and APFA which are moving closer to a strike than the APA. Hasn't the APA been in negotiations the longest?

Quote:

Originally Posted by tone

Once AA starts hiring there will be a pilot shortage, since by then every pilot in the world will have died of old age

04-21-2010, 08:01 AM

#30

Eric Stratton

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Quote:

Originally Posted by acl65pilot

Eric. As Super says we do. I will move up 8%+ a year starting in a few years, it is just getting there that hurts. I and super will go from mid level FO's to Widebody Captains in a period of five years.

I'm assuming there is a bunch of sarcasm here but if not, how are you and super mid level FO's? Weren't you both just hired in the last round? 8% a year for retirements has got to be good. That's roughly 1000 pilots. Didn't know it was that high in 2.5 years.