Forecast for AA pilot retirements to 2025

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04-22-2010, 11:01 AM

#41

Mink

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Quote:

Originally Posted by CE750

I think you're being a bit optimistic, but I do appreciate a bit of optimism... thanks for your best guess.

Have to agree. I would think AA has to turn a profit before it can think about recalls/hiring/expansion of any sort. They've got to solve their current mess before adding to it.

04-22-2010, 11:36 AM

#42

Eric Stratton

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Quote:

Originally Posted by johnso29

He wasn't referring to himself or Super as mid-level FO's right now. He was referring to a point in the future, and that movement from mid-level FO to WB CA is based on the age 65 retirements. It is getting to mid level FO that will take longer.

I guess I took a few years to mean the movement would happen in a few years. From what I was told the big movement for you guys won't happen for about 10 years. That's where the confusion was.

04-22-2010, 11:57 AM

#43

AceOnTheRiver

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Mink

Have to agree. I would think AA has to turn a profit before it can think about recalls/hiring/expansion of any sort. They've got to solve their current mess before adding to it.

I disagree. There has never been an airline that shrunk to profitability. An airline needs to grow to lower costs, otherwise it will die off to the likes of Eastern and PanAm.

04-22-2010, 04:19 PM

#44

Godzilla

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Quote:

Originally Posted by aa73

Oh, they'll recall, and a lot sooner than many think.

Yeah right!
Those retirement numbers should just about keep pace with the shrinkage at AA.

04-22-2010, 04:35 PM

#45

johnso29

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Eric Stratton

I guess I took a few years to mean the movement would happen in a few years. From what I was told the big movement for you guys won't happen for about 10 years. That's where the confusion was.

It starts in about 7 years, assuming they all go to/make it to Age 65.

04-22-2010, 08:01 PM

#46

Beagle Pilot

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Quote:

Originally Posted by CE750

I think you're being a bit optimistic, but I do appreciate a bit of optimism... thanks for your best guess.

Agreed optimism is good, but false hopes generate mistrust among the masses. There has to be a happy medium in there somewhere.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AceOnTheRiver

I disagree. There has never been an airline that shrunk to profitability. An airline needs to grow to lower costs, otherwise it will die off to the likes of Eastern and PanAm.

True about shrinking to profitibility. This may be comparing apples and orages though. AA needs to resolve its financial woes first. Among these are its labor contracts. Wearing my management hat, it appears they need to know how those contracts will hobble them before they can make plans for the future. While they are likely to recall crew members due to attrition, I am not so sure they will recall with growth in mind until all three major labor contracts are resolved.

04-22-2010, 10:41 PM

#47

aa73

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Godzilla

Yeah right!
Those retirement numbers should just about keep pace with the shrinkage at AA.

They cannot continue shrinking forever. At some point there will be growth, and a lot of it. Either that or the airline goes under, or gets bought out by someone else.

04-23-2010, 05:22 AM

#48

Hoss

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This management team is completely inept and it seems that their one and only tactic is to shy away from the competition and continue downsizing. Seriously, when will the shareholders and BOD finally give Arpey and the other executives their walking papers? If they aren't replaced, I'm afraid they will steer this airline straight into bankruptcy. And they still have the gall to reward themselves with healthy bonuses.

Last edited by Hoss; 04-23-2010 at 01:24 PM.

04-23-2010, 05:44 AM

#49

Beagle Pilot

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Quote:

Originally Posted by aa73

They cannot continue shrinking forever. At some point there will be growth, and a lot of it. Either that or the airline goes under, or gets bought out by someone else.

Agreed. The $64 question is "When?" Since most airline managers are rarely innovators, BB at RAH and JO at MAG are notorious exceptions, then the best way to predict what AMR will do is by looking at what their legacy competitors have done and are doing now.