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Old 04-21-2010, 11:53 AM
  #31  
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Originally Posted by CANAM View Post
How many pilots does AA have on furlough? Simple math dictates they won't be hiring for a long time. Hang in there everybody, that shortage will be here someday. Just seven or more eight years.
As one of the last ones hired back in 2001, I am certain it's going to be 2020 or later before I get a recall, if there is such as thing as a recall by then..

19 years furlough.... think about that.
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Old 04-21-2010, 02:42 PM
  #32  
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It's a good thing that the recall rights are no longer limited to ten years. Then again, after such a long time, the vast majority of furloughed pilots have long since moved on and have no intention of returning at any point. It will be interesting to see how many do end up accepting a recall - assuming AA ever STOPS downsizing and actually does recall.
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Old 04-21-2010, 03:23 PM
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Oh, they'll recall, and a lot sooner than many think.
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Old 04-21-2010, 03:28 PM
  #34  
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Originally Posted by aa73 View Post
Oh, they'll recall, and a lot sooner than many think.
Do you have a guess as to when, such as a six month window or are you just helping keep spirits up for those who have been furloughed for 9 years?
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Old 04-21-2010, 08:30 PM
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Originally Posted by CE750 View Post
As one of the last ones hired back in 2001, I am certain it's going to be 2020 or later before I get a recall, if there is such as thing as a recall by then..

19 years furlough.... think about that.

I was waiting on a ground school date when 9/11 came along and glad American was not able to accommodate me after seeing how this once great company has become a shell of it's former self. I hope all my friends at American have a happy landing in their careers.
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Old 04-22-2010, 03:59 AM
  #36  
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Originally Posted by Jinrai Butai View Post
Do you have a guess as to when, such as a six month window or are you just helping keep spirits up for those who have been furloughed for 9 years?
My good source of intel mentioned a possibility of recalls late this year or early next year, with the usual caveats (volcanoes, etc.)

AA will reach a point where they can't recall fast enough, as they always do. The fast pace will probably start when the age 65ers start retiring en masse, and then they will go into hiring mode.
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Old 04-22-2010, 04:36 AM
  #37  
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Are you expecting all of them to be recalled in a year? (if no volcanoes, etc. gum things up)

When do you expect street hiring?
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Old 04-22-2010, 07:23 AM
  #38  
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Within a year? I'd highly doubt it. You can see the retirements numbers. Make some assumptions about retirements, make some assumptions about possible expansion due to economic recovery, make some assumptions about how many guys actually take the recall, and you'll have your answer.

Obviously different assumptions will give you results all over the map. Four yrs? 5? 8?

Once the hiring starts this will be a great place for the young guys getting hired. If AA stays the same size retirements alone will generate n/b CA in approx. 8 yrs in NY and 10 yrs to w/b CA in NY.

Youngest guy is currently is 34, 20 guys 36 and younger, 145 guys under 40. If you get hired at 30 you'd be #1 for 6 yrs, number 146, or better, with 10 yrs to go.

Stagnation hurts the guys currently on the list. The other side of the coin is it's great for someone that is currently not competitive but will be in 4, 5, 8, x? yrs.
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Old 04-22-2010, 07:47 AM
  #39  
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Originally Posted by Eric Stratton View Post
I'm assuming there is a bunch of sarcasm here but if not, how are you and super mid level FO's? Weren't you both just hired in the last round? 8% a year for retirements has got to be good. That's roughly 1000 pilots. Didn't know it was that high in 2.5 years.

He wasn't referring to himself or Super as mid-level FO's right now. He was referring to a point in the future, and that movement from mid-level FO to WB CA is based on the age 65 retirements. It is getting to mid level FO that will take longer.
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Old 04-22-2010, 08:00 AM
  #40  
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Originally Posted by aa73 View Post
My good source of intel mentioned a possibility of recalls late this year or early next year, with the usual caveats (volcanoes, etc.)

AA will reach a point where they can't recall fast enough, as they always do. The fast pace will probably start when the age 65ers start retiring en masse, and then they will go into hiring mode.
I think you're being a bit optimistic, but I do appreciate a bit of optimism... thanks for your best guess.
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