I doubt there’s any intent to kill a regional. They are using available resources in a targeted fashion. There’s a plan, but any particular regional isn’t the focus.

 

there’s no animus, but imagine United finds it helpful to cut all payments to Air Whiskey. They may do it because they can

 

The creditors in Ch.7 would still be able to press a claim against UA. So UA would either need legit cause or be willing to fight and eventually lose a lawsuit. Hypothetically they might prefer to settle for pennies on the dollar years down the road. But that's pretty Machiavellian.

 

Folks here are projecting summer 2020 block hours into the future. I’d be skeptical of that being a good way to predict how UAX shakes out. Scope look back, CPA expirations, cost structures, regional solvency, changes after the government cheese runs out, etc, etc will all make the post Oct 2020 world look very different than this summer.

 

Desperate people do desperate things

 

Whiskey might not, but the holding company would. The owners of this place would not let their money printer get put down without at least trying a lawsuit.

 

I think more likely UA would just tell a regional that they are getting the absolute bare minimum block hours allowable per the contract. Because that situation would not be tenable, the regional may choose to close.

Let's say, for example, UA tells GJ that they will only fly 15% of their 2019 block hours indefinitely because that's the minimum in the contract. GJ may not be able to sustain that level of business without any chance for an increase, and may fold as a result. Contract terminated, problem solved for UA.

This would be particularly true for airlines with aircraft on lease wherein the lease must be paid regardless of the aircrafts actual flying activity. The aircraft *must* fly for a chance to break even. That's part of what killed TSA, except it was their own pilot shortage that really limited their capacity to fly, not UA.

 

Compass and TSA would beg to differ


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Good thing Whiskey owns all their own airplanes.

Or more accurately the holding company that owns whiskey owns the airplanes that they’re leasing to themselves.

 

From what I gathered;

Trans states shut down mostly due to an inability to staff their flying and general mismanagement. They went to United and asked for some flexibility and United said no. That’s very different than United unilaterally pulling out of a contract.

Compass’ Delta flying contract expired and they were unable to secure enough flying to be a viable airline. Again, an expiration is much different than pulling out of a contract early.

That’s my take on it anyway. Let me know if I misunderstood something.