Originally Posted by Floy

Absolutely. However the idea thats it'll go away completely...I'm not so sure. The legacies wanted their C scale but they also wanted service to airports that they couldn't profitably serve that would supplement the hub feed and fill their planes. They may want to put a 220 on every RJ route now but they simply cant do it. They dont have the planes and they certainly dont have the pilots. If they did they would have taken the flying back as soon as regionals started to pay $216/hr. Why contract that out when you can take it in house? Answer: They have no choice.

I think the real question is whether or not the CURRENT regional model is sustainable rather than imploding. They have been forced to pay starting wages that compete with the legacies and Captain pay that would theoretically keep pilots from going to at least the ULCC's. How long will that last? Most regional pilots will still leave to go to the big 6 which is still an astronomical number of pilots that will leave. I think that several regionals will go away and a few big ones will survive in a smaller form. Best guesses how long the hiring continues and how long until the regionals no longer need to pay these wages and declare chap 11 and reduce those contracts back to a true C scale...

Originally Posted by Excargodog

The problem IMHO is who the majors are hiring. If the majors were hiring a random mix of people from the regional seniority list it MIGHT be possible for the regionals to simply get smaller but to stay viable. But that isn’t the case. They are disproportionately hiring CAs and senior FOs. And that causes them to run afoul of the 1000 hr SIC before upgrade rule.


Regionals are bleeding people with high SIC and the ones left behind are not upgrade eligible while CAs are leaving without flying long enough to allow the FO next to them to become upgrade eligible. Right now regionals are surviving on DECs (that are becoming increasingly rare) and “lifer” CAs too close to retirement to benefit economically by a jump to the majors. It isn’t’t sustainable.

Barring a serious recession (which might happen) it’s a negative feedback loop. A death spiral.

Originally Posted by Jetlikespeed

okay okay…. But is a Miata a sports car? That’s the real debate

Originally Posted by tallpilot

Pretending that the purpose of the regionals is to reduce the liability of the airline when an inexperienced crew kills people is absurd. Their only purpose (directly stated by Kirby) was to create a C scale wage. In that regard they have been utterly fantastic over the past two decades. Every single pilot should be cheering the end of that nightmare.

Originally Posted by at6d

I find the 737 was more difficult than the CRJ-700 and EMB-135/140/145. Maybe difficult isn’t the right word—maybe just more “busy.”

The Saab 340 and ATR were much harder than the RJs.

I also find that the current 121 training environment is the least difficult and most friendly that it has ever been.

Originally Posted by Clipper88

Dash 8 Q400 is the hardest type to fly currently in operation.

Originally Posted by pangolin

It’s critical care but this is just supply chain. 1 year from now the problem will be over. We will have sufficient upgrade eligible FOs. Part of this problem is the LCCs and legacies that started hiring without TPIC. Shortly they will have enough.

Originally Posted by Excargodog

If you do not have enough CAs flying to generate enough SIC hours to get your FOs up to enough hours to upgrade themselves its more than just supply chain, it’s classic theory of constraints. No amount of shoving 0-121 time FOs in at the bottom will help if you are losing SIC experience hours to departing FOs and CAs faster than your remaining CAs can generate them. In fact, the more FOs you toss in at the bottom the fewer hours each will fly and the longer it will be before they can upgrade, allowing even more time for the majors to hire away your CAs and near-eligible FOs.

Originally Posted by Excargodog

If you do not have enough CAs flying to generate enough SIC hours to get your FOs up to enough hours to upgrade themselves its more than just supply chain, it’s classic theory of constraints. No amount of shoving 0-121 time FOs in at the bottom will help if you are losing SIC experience hours to departing FOs and CAs faster than your remaining CAs can generate them. In fact, the more FOs you toss in at the bottom the fewer hours each will fly and the longer it will be before they can upgrade, allowing even more time for the majors to hire away your CAs and near-eligible FOs.

Originally Posted by pangolin

They will eventually get the hours to upgrade and will and the problem will be solved. They are not getting zero hours. The senior will fly more. Your assertion is true if the flying is evenly spread among the junior. It’s not.