Your assumption is correct.....undermaned in the EMB FO side....fat on EMB capts. Been that way for a long time and going to stay that way I am sure. And for you class......I figure you will be swimming in the pool for awhile?

 

I wouldn’t say that we're "fat" when it comes to EMB CA's. Yes we have 99 CA's and 71 lines in FAT but FAT holds the majority of reserves for the EMB system. I would say that we are now properly staffed when it comes to EMB CA's and understaffed when it comes to EMB FO's.

We had 37 total reserve EMB CA’s system wide for July and 22 of them are in FAT, with only 16 reserve EMB FO’s system wide and 0 of them are in FAT. That’s a reserve %age of 14% for CA’s and 6% for FO’s. On the RJ we have 186 reserve CA’s and 202 reserve FO’s which equates to a reserve %age of 16% for CA’s and 17% for FO’s. SLC, DEN and ORD staff the majority of the RJ reserves. SLC has 19% of their FO’s sitting reserve and 15% of their CA’s. In DEN the FO/CA %ages are 25%/25% and ORD is 29%/24%.

When you look at the number of reserves system wide you'll see that we're just barely overstaffed when it comes to our current RJ FLT load, properly staffed on the EMB for CA's and understaffed when it comes to EMB FO's. Now if we lose flying or decrease anywhere then those %ages will rise. This is why everything has being cancelled (new hires, transitions & upgrades), Mgmnt wants attrition to whittle away at the above numbers and if we do decrease in flying then look for SKW to displace a class or two of RJ FO’s to the EMB.

BTW, the above numbers do take into account suspended (FMLA, MIL, Med, TRN, etc) pilots.

 

Makes sense - any word on how long they're going to wait before brasilia FO staffing is so critical that they displace fo's or start a new hire class? I suppose losing more united flying would be the deciding point as to whether rj fo's are displaced to the brasilia vs new hires staffing the brasilias...

 

Like JetJock said, we are very nearly properly staffed. With the small attrition we've been seeing, it would take a fairly deep cut in flying come fall to see any displacements. I would expect voluntary LOA's as well (but when is that not a good thing ).

 

So do you think they will be hiring (and place in a pool) through the end of year?

 

I would say that yes, that is a good possibility...!

 

They're still letting PBS build lines crediting over 90 hours. If we see a big reduction in flying the first thing they'll do is limit everyone to 75-80 hours for the monthly bid award. They've done that in the past when the flying has been cut back. Back in the days of hard lines we had months when the highest paying line on had 77-78 hours.

 

Absolutely, they will reduce everyone’s lines to the bare minimum and offer voluntary LOA's long before they put one pilot on the street. Even if we completely lose Midwest I can't see SKW furloughing. It will take deeper cuts than that to push Jerry and friends end one of their most prized records. That’s 36+ years of no furloughs, but if things really take a turn for the worst then they will and they will do it with a very…………………….very heavy heart.

In my opinion…………………….and keep in mind that this is just my opinion……………………SKW won’t furlough seeing that we will back fill some of the voids felt from UAL pulling their 73’s out. Also look for our EMB flying to slowly increase as AE, Horizon and XJT pull out of west coast markets. I’m not saying that I’m happy about it or that SKW is an equal replacement, in a lot of ways we are not (mainly speaking about XJT), but their Co.'s have decided to pull out and for the community we are service and no a/c can do it cheaper than the EMB @ SKW. JMHO, no attacks.

BTW, I was told by Mgmnt that both of our new routes into OR from SFO are profitable with less than 8 people on board and that’s with $4.14/gal gas. Yesterday I hauled 15 up to LMT and 30 out this morning (YES that was 30 adults). I was also told that SBA to SJC is profitable with 5 Pax on board. So the EMB's going nowhere for a very......very long time. Or at least until they find a solid replacement.

 

I think we'll have to start cannibalizing planes in the not too distant future. There's a bunch of parts that just aren't readily available for the Bro, those unique propellers being one of them.

Certainly, opportunity is opening up in the west, but I question how long the Bro can effectively do it.

 

MX costs on the EMB are starting to outrun their profitability...They will be around for the short term but you can surely count them out in 2-3 years.