Proposed ATP/1500 Minimums for 121 Carriers
07-29-2009 | 09:19 AM
#111
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined: Jan 2006
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From: Engines Turn or People Swim
For those who already meet the ATP mins, your next PC will probably be your ATP check ride.
For those who might fall through the cracks on age, perhaps your employer will freeze your seniority and then reemploy you when you turn 23 and have an ATP. But I suspect that the grace period will allow most FO's to reach their 23rd birthday. If not, you will need a college degree anyway...this would be a great time to go get one.
07-29-2009 | 09:23 AM
#112
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Feb 2007
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From: E-170
what happens when a person who comes in with more than 1500 hours randomly forgets to look at the airspeed, stalls, and kills everyone again? do we jump the mins up to 3000, 5000? 1500 hours in a 172 isnt going to show you icing, thunderstorms, etc unless your stupid and put yourself into those situations. How many night freight jobs are out there? how about 135 jobs sitting in the right seat of a citation? eventually the demand for 121 pilots will exceed the amount of 1500 hour guys and then who knows what will happen. This still doesnt do anything to change pay. When airlines were having problems recruiting qualified pilots the last few years they didnt raise first year pay. they went to flight schools and said will give your instructors prefferential hiring.
07-29-2009 | 09:23 AM
#113
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From: 737 Capt
In my previous comment, I mentioned the 1500 hour requirement could cause a pilot shortage for regional carriers. I was taken to task, but allow me to elaborate on my point just a bit more. Most won't find it persuasive, but here goes.
Eventually, the problems the age 60 rule was to create will happen with the age 65 rule. Now some will point to furloughs and say there are plenty of pilots ready for that moment, but that assumes no pilots will be recalled between now and the end of the world.
If you believe the economy will recover and natural attrition at the majors takes place, furloughed pilots are going to be recalled. Holes will have to be filled. As that occurs and some regional pilots move on to major carriers, spots are going to open at regional carriers.
At some point, simply recalling furloughed pilots won't be enough for regional carriers. For a time, there will probably be plenty of 1500 hour plus pilots available, but the well is going to run dry. Then what? Does the airline industry purposefully remain smaller due to a pilot shortage than the market desires?
In the relatively near future, and probably sooner than many think, airlines are going to find themselves in the hole they operated under in 2007. As bad as the economy has been, we're still at economic levels seen in the late 1990's. That was the supposed golden age for airlines, right? In fact, some believe this recession still won't be as bad as the one in 1982-1983.
After that long winded speech, here's my point. Fewer and fewer people are learning to fly and earn commerical liscences, or at least that has been the case. If the number of pilots is decreasing and the airlines industry begins to grow again, where are the pilots with 1500 hours going to come from then?
I'm not arguing against 1500 hours and an ATP. I'm just wondering what the unintended consequences could be. Some may prefer 2500 or even 3000 as was the norm in the 1980's, but how much larger in is the industry now as compared to then?
Eventually, the problems the age 60 rule was to create will happen with the age 65 rule. Now some will point to furloughs and say there are plenty of pilots ready for that moment, but that assumes no pilots will be recalled between now and the end of the world.
If you believe the economy will recover and natural attrition at the majors takes place, furloughed pilots are going to be recalled. Holes will have to be filled. As that occurs and some regional pilots move on to major carriers, spots are going to open at regional carriers.
At some point, simply recalling furloughed pilots won't be enough for regional carriers. For a time, there will probably be plenty of 1500 hour plus pilots available, but the well is going to run dry. Then what? Does the airline industry purposefully remain smaller due to a pilot shortage than the market desires?
In the relatively near future, and probably sooner than many think, airlines are going to find themselves in the hole they operated under in 2007. As bad as the economy has been, we're still at economic levels seen in the late 1990's. That was the supposed golden age for airlines, right? In fact, some believe this recession still won't be as bad as the one in 1982-1983.
After that long winded speech, here's my point. Fewer and fewer people are learning to fly and earn commerical liscences, or at least that has been the case. If the number of pilots is decreasing and the airlines industry begins to grow again, where are the pilots with 1500 hours going to come from then?
I'm not arguing against 1500 hours and an ATP. I'm just wondering what the unintended consequences could be. Some may prefer 2500 or even 3000 as was the norm in the 1980's, but how much larger in is the industry now as compared to then?
07-29-2009 | 09:24 AM
#114
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Joined: Oct 2008
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From: none ya...
You are not the average 300 wonder with no life experience. What I have gathered as a CFI is that life experience can make up for lack of hours, but only in certain cases.
Experienced Military, LEO, or other professionals where operational risk management is a daily event can readily apply their survival lessons-learned to aviation.
Long-time 9-to-5 professionals such as bankers accountants, salesmen, etc are at a disadvantage...their learned survival skills are all about politics, ladder climbing, and what people think. It does not matter if they do the job right or not, as long as the right people THINK they do. These folks have to learn all the aviation lessons the hard way. They will do really stupid things because they think it will make ATC happy, while totally disregarding basic aeronautical principles and physical laws (ie gravity).
There are of course always exceptions.
Experienced Military, LEO, or other professionals where operational risk management is a daily event can readily apply their survival lessons-learned to aviation.
Long-time 9-to-5 professionals such as bankers accountants, salesmen, etc are at a disadvantage...their learned survival skills are all about politics, ladder climbing, and what people think. It does not matter if they do the job right or not, as long as the right people THINK they do. These folks have to learn all the aviation lessons the hard way. They will do really stupid things because they think it will make ATC happy, while totally disregarding basic aeronautical principles and physical laws (ie gravity).
There are of course always exceptions.
Unfortunatly thanks in part to my wifes job of selling computer cores to banks to allow them to go with "Green" check free solutions, I wont be able to fly checks for Fligth express out of my hometown.....LOL, I'll deal with her later....
07-29-2009 | 09:24 AM
#115
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From: PIC Challenger 605
I don't really see anything with the exception of the background checks that can actually be implemented. As far as the 1500 total time and ATP, both pilots had it and at least had 1500 at the time of the crash. The FO was hired with around 1700 hours. They had about 6000 TT combined at the time of the crash. Nothing in these proposals will prevent another crash with the exception of harder training.
07-29-2009 | 09:25 AM
#116
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From: 737 Capt
I don't really see anything with the exception of the background checks that can actually be implemented. As far as the 1500 total time and ATP, both pilots had it and at least had 1500 at the time of the crash. The FO was hired with around 1700 hours. They had about 6000 TT combined at the time of the crash. Nothing in these proposals will prevent another crash with the exception of harder training.
07-29-2009 | 09:25 AM
#117
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So the 23000 hour CA should be judged because he had his first flying job at 200 hours? What about his FO that had 2500 hours and hired with 1700, she also couldn't get out of a stall.
07-29-2009 | 09:28 AM
#118
Line Holder
Joined: Apr 2009
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From: Middle Seat
07-29-2009 | 09:30 AM
#119
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Yeah, I agree with you TProp, but I think this is the flaw in your thinking:
The situation that you just presented included a responsible, experienced captain and a responsible, life experienced (?) FO. What happens in your situation when the recently upgraded captain with 50 PIC total is trying to mentor the 200 hr guy with the wet commercial?
I put the question mark in there because I don't know your experience, but rickair alluded to the fact that you have "life experience". I meant this situation I presented to be as respectful towards you and the captain as possible while contrasting it to a couple characters that were not as experienced.
Also, this brings up a strange situation. Now these "fresh" ATP's may be flying with captains that have 1/20th the PIC time.
The situation that you just presented included a responsible, experienced captain and a responsible, life experienced (?) FO. What happens in your situation when the recently upgraded captain with 50 PIC total is trying to mentor the 200 hr guy with the wet commercial?
I put the question mark in there because I don't know your experience, but rickair alluded to the fact that you have "life experience". I meant this situation I presented to be as respectful towards you and the captain as possible while contrasting it to a couple characters that were not as experienced.
Also, this brings up a strange situation. Now these "fresh" ATP's may be flying with captains that have 1/20th the PIC time.
07-29-2009 | 09:30 AM
#120
Underboob King
Joined: May 2005
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From: Guppy Commander
There may be a pilot shortage as a result, however, how is the pay going to go up if the union keeps voting contracts that sells out the junior pilots. That's been the number one problem in this industry. Managers mismanage and only have x amount of dollars to pay out, the union decides how that x amount is divided up. Will mainline guys give up some pay to increase 1st year regional pay to attract higher qualified candidates?
mainline contracts have nothing to do with regional contracts and pay
