Quote:
Originally Posted by Bucking Bar
Good point. I was thinking of the political environment, but jeesh, not declaring bankruptcy does make them a bit of a different animal.
Maybe speaking out school, but, we'd have to scrutinize their capital expenses on the new fleet additions to see how they are allocating costs. They are spending a bunch of money replacing their Douglas fleet. That is something we will also incur at some future date ... unless we outsource it.
AMR has two big problems now. You point to the first, which is they are still paying the exorbitant lease/mortgage payments for their MD-80 fleet which, coupled with the higher fuel burn, makes them uncompetitive. Delta is paying virtually nothing for their MD-80's so they can offset the fuel burn. Capital expenditures like new jets do not affect the profit/loss, but they affect cash flow and eventually AMR will have to borrow a lot of money and pay a lot of interest to buy those 737's. Right now, they are replacing 3 MD-80's with 2 737's, so they need less pilots.
That leads to problem #2. AMR hit their labor groups on pay during their 2002 non-bankruptcy restructuring, but they did not hit productivity. They have been shrinking for a long time and pilots are upset about not upgrading along with about 2,000 pilots on furlough. It's difficult to get industry leading pay without some productivity changes, otherwise they can't compete. How do you increase productivity without exacerbating the shrinking problem they have now? Tough call there. If you don't compete on productivity, Southwest will come take your flying.
Delta needs to have Airbus or Boeing come up with a compelling product to move away from the MD-80's. They either need to re-engine the 737/A320 or come up with a whole new product. They probably need to beat current fuel economy by 10-20% to get in the game. To prep for that eventuality, Delta is building a cash flow stream to pay off debt and then buy jets with little to no borrowing. Everything I have heard from management shows me that they understand there is no way to further erode scope and they really aren't that happy with their current outsourcing scheme. Getting out of this problem will take just as long as it took to get into it. I know that you won't believe that until you see it, since you are on the junior end of the list, but that's what I have seen. Take it for what it's worth, just another useless opinion on these useless webboards.