Well crap “Dera”, if CRJJ’s numbers are accurate then “Guard” isn’t far off IF we round up to 2 per day if CRJJ meant each day vs week as mentioned in previous posts.

What would be the probable cause of that? Are they given false expectations going in? Or are they getting enough 121 time to put on their resumes so they can get picked up by the majors? As an outsider until now, cargo always seemed more stable than pax, anyway..

1.6 is not 2, Last month was 1.4/day, and this month seems to be trending down still. Sounds small, but it's a 150 pilot difference in a year. That is not a small difference.

It will be interesting to see what effect the Article 33 reduction has on those numbers.

Namaste Dera hence the smiley face. It was a fun stretch or round up. Either way, I agree wholeheartedly and things will get interesting when things dry up. Until then, chaching!

Even if it stays about where it is now - around mid-40s/month - we would still roughly equal the historic record setting attrition of last year (new CBA and all). And of course with Article 33/Covid bonus pay going away a lot of ppl will start feeling like they got a huge pay cut and start comparison shopping again. And even if the company can maintain the current situation - which is really just keeping their head above water - it really doesn’t leave much room for any real growth. Growth slowing significantly or coming to a near standstill means upgrades slow way down…which will also cause ppl to reconsider their options. I have a feeling the attrition numbers are going to bump up a bit in the not so distant future but what do I know.

Wouldn’t be surprised if the company comes up with some cheddar in some form or fashion as it will become even harder as the other outfits are in the negotiation process. UPS has another pay bump in Sep, FedEx is knee deep in it right now and UA has something in the works and probably others as well to name a few. It will get worse no doubt just like Crusoe said.

Your thought process seems rational and a good one. I haven't been here very long but long enough to notice this management team doesn't seem concerned about losing pilots. They have had opportunites to incentivize ppl to stay and haven't done so. In one of my recurrent classes we had a management type come in and tell us they are fine with the churn and are content being a stepping stone for pilots. Just my two cents.

Spot on, they don’t care about loss of pilots it’s the $$$, shareholder/stocks, bonuses, etc. that has always controlled this vessel like many outfits. They have the ability to shrink, flex and expand depending on the situation especially if they are able to put butts in seats . Revolving pilots in/out every 2-3 years doesn’t cost them much and fulfills much of their need. In fact it is very efficient vs keeping folks banking on longevity and costs associated with it.. Imagine a larger training footprint coupled with our own hotel/dorms… even more cost savings. Wheels(minds) are always turning here.

The real explanation is even more cynical that that. The reality is that our executives don't expect current market (labor or freight) conditions to continue. They are surely expecting an economic recession (which may or may not already begun). When that happens the hiring at the Legacies will slow down, or even stop temporarily. I doubt there will be furloughs at the Legacies due to early retirements during 2020 that are causing so many staffing problems today (just a guess on my part so far).

But I believe, as apparently our executives do too, that an economic recession will stop the giant "sucking sound" we hear at the bottom of the seniority list. So why bother making any further improvements?

The freight market will likely remain strong longer than the pilot labor market, but one day that will end too--most likely after China opens and the backlog in the entire supply chain is sorted out.

Then we're back to business as normal. The question for junior crew members at ANY operation is: Where to do you want to be when the music stops. Because one thing is for certain, the music always stops for a period of time during one's career. And when it does you're going to be stuck where you are for several years.

^This. I don't think pilots quite understand that the whole industry is engineered to take advantage of pilots constantly reaching for the brass ring which is "the majors." Atlas' ideal staffing model is everyone that comes here spends a few years in the right seat, upgrades, then 2 years later leaves. They want your retirement to be Delta and FedEx's problem. Make it just nice enough so the top 1/3 of the seniority list is lifers to anchor your culture and training process but everyone else needs to GTFO.

Just consider our payroll: something like 80% of our seniority list is under 10 years at the company. Compare that to the majors where a 15 year FO isn't even that uncommon. Yes they're hiring a lot NOW but that's going to slow down in a few years and of course a recession or increase in retirement age will just exacerbate it.

Point is: everyone that isn't United/Delta/AA/FedEx/UPS gets a huge tailwind from decreased payroll costs. Yes their training costs are high but consider that if a typical initial costs roughly $50k all-in, that cost is easily covered by the delta between a 10 year FO and a new hire's yearly pay. Its just plain cheaper to keep the training center hoping rather than have a bunch of lifers clogging up the seniority list. If we were talking about LCC vs Majors I'd say its even a competitive advantage to encourage your pilots to run off to the majors. In Atlas case FedEx/UPS though the competition between the two is murkier.