I agree. The long time on reserve and long upgrades and seniority stagnation that Yum and others refer to was a result of a conflagration of conditions the likes of which are unlikely to ever occur in conjunction again. In short they are: the age 65 rule change; the 2nd worst economic downturn in US history; and merging of three pilot seniority lists and subsequent training bubble and bankruptcy of the company.

Any one of those things is entirely likely to happen again in this industry. But the likelihood of them ALL occurring again, at the same time, to the same company is basically nil.

The age change was the biggest driver of that stagnation and that's now in the past. Just look at the retirement lists at the majors and it's plainly obvious that movement will be the norm, not the exception for at least the next 10 years. Even if all major airlines where to shrink capacity, they would still have to hire to compensate for attrition. Sure, they might lose 10 and hire 7, but they're still hiring. I don't think we'll see furloughs and back sliding anytime in the foreseeable future. Any shrinkage will just be accomplished through attrition. If the FAA where to change the rule to age 67 or do away with it all together I don't honestly think it would make a significant difference in pilot demand. Most of the guys in their 60's planned to retire at 60 or 65 so they should be in good shape. Most of them will still opt to spend those years on their boat.

The economic downturn is the most likely of the three factors, but again with the retirements coming we can weather pretty drastic cuts in capacity without stopping hiring at the majors. In addition, the population is growing again (Millenials outnumber baby boomers now) and demand will rise with population. The biggest threat here is top end scope, the Arab state subsidized carriers, and operations like NAI. I would suggest we all consider backing the ALPA PAC, even if you're not exactly thrilled with ALPA itself. The PAC is separate and is focused on lobbying for us in Washington.

Finally will there be more airline bankruptcies and mergers? Is the Pope Catholic? But again, without the other two factors also coming into play, it is unlikely that it would lead to furloughs or massive stagnation. It is also highly unlikely that it will be YOUR airline. The big ones are in pretty good shape and have figured out how to do this profitably. Consolidation has virtually ended the aggressive price wars of the 90's, and airplanes are incredibly fuel efficient now compared to 10 years ago. And as we know, most of the airline bankruptcies where shams anyway. It may not stop as a business practice, but when you are applying to your next airline, I'd suggest looking at their financials. A company with billions in the bank is pretty hard to put through a sham bankruptcy.

So no the sky is not falling and it is highly unlikely that it will anytime soon, at least not to anything like the extent that we have experienced in the past six or seven years.

Ok, most of this stuff is making me feel a lot better about starting next month. Next step (should I get that far...not taking anything for granted), is to learn how best to manage reserve and commuting!

I drive to work now, M-F, 8-6 (1 hour drive, too) and mostly have weekends off, so you might think I'm nuts...but I'll say this. It's 8-9 days off a month, gone dark to dark so I'm hardly home anyway, with no prospect of gaining seniority for a better schedule. I've never had 15 or 17 days off a month, so even if I commute on days off, i'll eventually come out ahead still. Yes I'm sure it's stressful, hoping to get on flights (I'm hoping for BOS-NYC at some point), but my approach is "it's not about me"...people are counting on me to get them places, and I need to make that happen. It's my job, so I need to do what I can to accomplish it. It's a pretty sweet deal that I can even have the option of commuting and not uprooting where I've been for 20 years, so there's that side of the coin. I plan on asking knowledgeable people for advice and making the best of it.

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And yes, I understand it's 11 days off minimum and I'll get that for a while but at least there's the hope down the line of getting 15 or more days off a month

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Lifers and new hires.

Based on APC retirement data, 9,531 pilots will reach age 65 through 2022 at AA/UA/DL alone.

That is Endeavor, Skywest, Envoy and Republic's pilot groups combined. Pilots that haven't even been hired by the regionals yet will be at the majors within 7 years.

Nice...we should change handles as you dropped the most appropriate 'Voice of Reason' in this whole conversation. ** Raises coffee mug, offers sip of respect **

And that is just to MAINTAIN their current capacity! Any growth in fleet would add to those numbers! AA has a ton of A/C on order, some of which will be growth. DAL has 321's and 350's coming, some of which is growth, and UAL is adding 190's after their TA passed. So yeah, the dog days are over.

I would think twice about leaving here to go to places like Kalitta, Allegient, USA Jet, and any other third tier non-regional. That's where the hurt will be felt! They'll be starved of pilots in no time and I see no way they'll be able to get out of that. They'll likely end up going through a bunch of consolidations and bankruptcies and many of them may still fold. Their only hope is that enough people get DUI's and certificate actions to keep them staffed (I say somewhat in jest).

Yes. All of this. Agreed.

Nice to see a fresh breath of positivity on this thread. Patience really is the name of the game in the current market!

Does this mean a shorter reserve callout time?