Im in agreement with Turbo, any regional pilot, be it CA or FO had better be looking to get out as soon as practical. I don't think SkyWest or any of the regionals will survive the coming storm. And as far as the pilot supply goes, it is dwindling. How many are in last month's CRJ class? This is a good and stable company yet,; I am loving OO thus far and recommend it above other regionals, but I've been here since January and I'm already looking at LCCs. The writing is on the wall if all the projected hiring pans out. If upgrade times rise higher than three years...I'm definitely out.

 

I agree there won't be regionals that survive through this pilot shortage.. SKW runs 5 classes a mont now 2 CRJ, 2 ERJ, 1 CPT. The one that impressed me was the CPT. It had 31 in it!! Its usually 6-8 people..

 

The lifer statment is changing. Now that newhire pay at the majors is not 24k a year like it was 5-10 years ago, more senior people are leaving..

 

Speaking of consolidation, rumors at RAH is that there is on going negotiations. A regional is buying them when they Exit BK.

 

This may all be true. But your perspective depends a lot on where you are at right now.

CFI with 1,500 hours trying to get into the game? SKW may not be the express elevator as it has been for the 2013/14 people, but where else would you go instead? It is still the best option in the option set. At least in my opinion.

 

So much doom.
The upgrade train recently left 7 years to 4 now 3?
The market is in the pilots favor.
The pilot shortage won't survive peoples desire for air travel and those people are shelling out plenty of money to attract butts to the front.
There will be consolidation as the old way clings to the bitter end.

 

We knew all along it would plateau.... We hire roughly 70 a month, but only upgrade around half that so it's been known that the upgrade dip into sub 3 years would probably wouldn't last. My guess is it evens out somewhere around the 3 year mark and that's a good thing, you'll get a solid 2 years of seeing all the seasons and gaining experience. When I went to OBAP a few weeks ago every recruiter said to me I need more hours, when I asked if I had PIC already would it matter the overwhelming response was not likely. So even if you get hired at 1500 upgrade at 2500 get your magical 1000 PIC nobody will really consider you with only 3500 hours. In a few years? Maybe but straight from BK's mouth at United you're probably going to need to be in the 5000 TT range to get looked at. That doesn't mean a few here and there don't get the call it's just that the majority don't.

 

I'm in agreement. 5 years from now, regionals will be a shell of their former selves. Most will have moved on to the LLCS and other regionals like JetBlue or spirit. The lucky few will make it to a legacy. It isn't difficult to see the cull coming given that both delta and United have spelt it out clearly in their fleet planning. pick a regional, go there and hope they last a few more years.

 

Lot's of doom and gloom. Will things change? Of course they will. Anyone who thinks otherwise is a fool. Are all the regionals going to flop or merge? Maybe, Maybe not. Either way, the demand is still going to be there. If they fold into another company the routes are still going to need planes to fly them. There are 7 Billion people in the world and growing, someone has to fly them around

 

This is a good point. It's not that I'm saying "Don't come to SKW, this place is a dumpster fire" (although life on reserve will make you want to shoot yourself, unless you're a 175 ORD guy and actually want to fly.) It's just that it's not all rainbows and unicorns over here. I do believe the quick upgrade train has left the building. That said, I can't point to any other regionals who have better working conditions or faster upgrades.

I suppose what I'm really trying to say is: If you are hired at SkyWest now, do not come here believing you'll see the same super-fast progression that guys hired in 2013 have seen. The only reason December 2013 hires are at 15% in-base seniority (as FOs) is that 1) a lot of people in front of them have left, and 2) we've expanded the pilot group by more than 20% since 2013.

As we all know, the most important variable that affects one's QOL (besides living in base vs. commuting) is one's relative seniority in-base and in-seat. Guys hired today will not be in the top 15% of their domicile by 2019. For that to happen, we'd have to add another 800-1000 pilots and we'd have to gain enough flying for that to happen.

SKW isn't a bad place. All I'm saying is, these less-than-2.5-year-upgrades, and these rapid in-base seniority advancements for some guys, are not going to apply to the majority of the guys hired right now.