TTOCSMCC

They updated the profile on APC for Spirit, but it's a little to optimistic with regard to the payscale. Looks like numbers for DOS + 3.

bubi352

Oil is close to $112 per barrel and climbing. Do you guys believe we are better prepared this time vs 2008?

BoredwLife

Not better prepared but in a more restrictive situation. With the planned IPO it puts us in a limited position when it comes to reducing. Also I believe that the investors know that NK royaly messed up with the reduction they did last time around. With that said I don't believe we will last long once oil surpasses 130. Depending on the price I think 3-8 months tops.

lolwut

Considering what oil is doing, is Spirit still hiring?

ALPO Whisperer

The difference to watch between what's happening now and back when NK gave back 7 jets is the rate at which oil continues to climb. If it's a slow climb, with sustained levels above $120/barrel, I would expect to see a lot of pain throughout the industry. Spirit would be in a very diifficult position because of its small size, minimal cash reserves, lack of credit, and inability to raise fares/fees without destroying their customer base.

In 2008, oil rose at a rapid pace due to world-wide supply fears. It quickly collapsed with the ensuing financial crisis and sharp reduction in demand. This time around, oil prices are increasing because of fear and uncertainty with events in the Middle East. Don't expect it to collapse near as much as it did after the financial crisis fallout. IOW, even if the fear subsides, there's enough demand in the "so called world-wide recovery" to sustain oil at a fairly high level.

I do expect Spirit and other airlines to cut capacity soon. For some airlines, that means curtailing growth and riding out the storm for a while with a plan to conserve cash. For Spirit, the thing that concerns me most is that I keep hearing they have every intention of riding out the fear worries. They may decide to react when its too late. Personally, I'd rather see them take the steps now to prevent the almost certain cash hemorraging. It's shaping up to be an interesting Spring/Summer once again.

Like the ol' man says..."Son, if the man upstairs wanted us to fly, he would've given us wings!"

captscott26

I cant argue with any of that. I will add some to it though...

Over the last six months, there have been numerous fare increases across the board in the industry to try and keep up with the increase in fuel. Im not sure to what extent that helps us deal with high oil, but I know it does. In 2008 the airlines were caught with their pants down. It appears they are better prepared this time around.

Also, if there is one thing we learned in 2008, its that unreasonably high oil prices WILL have an extremely negative effect on the economy...its a certainty. We react to high pump prices by scaling down our driving and reducing spending in other areas to compensate. This will take a few months to ripple through the economy, and once it does, we will see oil tumble once again. Go back and look at the 30 year history of crude prices...it happens every time.

Normann

I would argue the opposite. In 2008 they have reacted late. Way too late. Right now our growth has practically come to a halt until the end of 2011. The decision to not take more planes for the Summer of 2011 must have been made a while ago. I bet it was a hard one since summer has always been the money maker for everyone. I have no doubt in my mind that they have planned the IPO for 2011, and with that they would have started to grow this place at a higher rate. But you simply can't go public when there is a possibility that your company may operate in the red due to runaway oil prices.

If you guys think about it, we gave back 7 airplanes out of the total of 35 in 2008. They have got them all back in 2.5 years. In other words, we were able to grow 25% within 2.5 years. That is an average of 10% growth annually. All this while we also struck and all this during a bad recession.

Right now we are hiring guys for $38.50/h to avoid JRMing others that make $70-$140. Finally a smart move from management.

The difference, as we have been told by our CP is this. Before 2008 this company was operating in the red. Ever since 2008 we have been making money and growing. We even made profit in months like January and February this year. Which is almost unheard of for an airline. AND oil was already relatively high during those months.

I personally feel a lot better about our near future now than in late 2008. However I too can see furloughs by the end of the summer. The bottom of the list has never been a good place at Spirit. But I don't expect anything like 2008.

TTOCSMCC

What's up with FLL - RSW - LIM next month?

captscott26

Rwy construction in FLL, can't make it out nonstop.

Sailor

I guess it's catching up with us. Last class of NH schedule for MAY, no JUN class. (oil driven, just like everything else nowadays, its amazing how fragile we are).

It'll be a long summer.