New Hire Classes and Drops
08-08-2023 | 12:38 PM
#3251
Line Holder
Joined: May 2023
Posts: 660
Likes: 45
It seems like somewhat realistic numbers for what an equilibrium at each airline might look like would be 19-20k at UA and 17k and change at Delta and American. We also know mandatory retirements (regardless of whether the age is increased, the can is just kicked down the road 2-3 years). Delta and American could decide to grow more, but we can’t count on that right now.
If you believe United will truly hire to get to 26k or the market will totally tank, then who knows. Those scenarios seem unlikely at this point. All of this is to say, you are right but we can at least come up with a reasonable estimate.
08-08-2023 | 02:36 PM
#3252
On Reserve
Joined: Aug 2023
Posts: 15
Likes: 0
That’s mostly true but not entirely true. I think most people would say Delta is near the end of their wave, pretty much regardless of anything except a shocking new growth plan.
It seems like somewhat realistic numbers for what an equilibrium at each airline might look like would be 19-20k at UA and 17k and change at Delta and American. We also know mandatory retirements (regardless of whether the age is increased, the can is just kicked down the road 2-3 years). Delta and American could decide to grow more, but we can’t count on that right now.
If you believe United will truly hire to get to 26k or the market will totally tank, then who knows. Those scenarios seem unlikely at this point. All of this is to say, you are right but we can at least come up with a reasonable estimate.
It seems like somewhat realistic numbers for what an equilibrium at each airline might look like would be 19-20k at UA and 17k and change at Delta and American. We also know mandatory retirements (regardless of whether the age is increased, the can is just kicked down the road 2-3 years). Delta and American could decide to grow more, but we can’t count on that right now.
If you believe United will truly hire to get to 26k or the market will totally tank, then who knows. Those scenarios seem unlikely at this point. All of this is to say, you are right but we can at least come up with a reasonable estimate.
Without question, retirements are not going to help seniority much. There is about 500/yr for the next several years. That's 1/32 of the list each year, which, assuming every pilot stays at delta for roughly 30 years on average, makes for completely average retirement years going forward. American has some years with nearly a thousand retirements coming up.
08-08-2023 | 09:23 PM
#3253
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Sep 2022
Posts: 855
Likes: 0
Entirely depends on how big united gets.
They’re at roughly 16k pilots now with a few thousand retirements in the next several years. So they need to hire something like 10,000 pilots in the next several years.
If they keep hiring 50/week that’s 200 weeks.
2023 is fine 2024 is fine
After that things get hazier
They’re at roughly 16k pilots now with a few thousand retirements in the next several years. So they need to hire something like 10,000 pilots in the next several years.
If they keep hiring 50/week that’s 200 weeks.
2023 is fine 2024 is fine
After that things get hazier
08-09-2023 | 08:25 AM
#3254
Line Holder
Joined: Jun 2019
Posts: 35
Likes: 0
From the new hires page on Facebook, all the domiciles were "unlimited"
37x 73's EWR & IAH
4x 320 EWR, SFO, IAH
6x 756 SFO
Here's the order they were picked in
https://www.facebook.com/groups/2729...0420332646445/
37x 73's EWR & IAH
4x 320 EWR, SFO, IAH
6x 756 SFO
Here's the order they were picked in
https://www.facebook.com/groups/2729...0420332646445/
08-09-2023 | 09:19 AM
#3256
Line Holder
Joined: Dec 2021
Posts: 26
Likes: 0
08-10-2023 | 12:18 PM
#3260
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 2,190
Likes: 6
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