Yes, IAD is slated to do Asia.

Since the company hasn't been forthcoming with their plan I've been using united.com and looking for flights in May and June to see what is listed. I didn't spend too much time but I did find IAD to PEK, HND, and LHR on the 777. However, as mentioned above I find it hard to believe China is planning on opening their doors to foreign carriers in a few short months. I agree it's more likely to be years before a Chinese re-opening, BUT management just might have a better idea than us line pukes.

 

Well, China is all about appearance. Olympics are coming up. If they don't want egg on their face like Japan, they will have to open up. How much? Who knows.

Now, they will probably choose to play politics with their opening, again, and try to disadvantage other airlines by restricting inbound pax with silly procedures while we don't play games with their flights....

 

Thanks! At the stations we fly too we still have to wear hazmat suits for the walk-around and they come on the plane and spray-it down. Crews have been stuck on the plane >24 hrs when something breaks. Probably some type of hotel-room confinement for crews on layovers and 2-3 week quarantines for pax for quite awhile when it does return.

Seems like both the 777 and 787 provide similar schedules on WB reserve from what I gather. Someone wrote earlier that when most of the international travel restrictions are lifted some NB CAs might come back to WB FO and making these unfilled vacancies disappear...but making more NB CA positions available. So I guess it all works itself out.

Pay-wise, do you think the next contract will allow reserve folks to pick up stuff on their days off for any type of premium? Or do you think the status quo will remain? Looks like one could easily be 10+ years on reserve so just wondering.

 

Not before their 2 year seat lock expires. At current hiring rates, we’ll have another 2,000 pilots and another 1500 retirements or so.

 

There’s a lot of guys hanging out NB that can’t wait to go back to widebody. Should cause good movement when international comes back

 

Bear in mind I have no facts just opinions, but no I do not expect significant changes to reserve just fiddling around the edges. However, assuming for a moment we get back to close to 2019 line levels, I see every reason to expect reserves could break guarantee if they wanted (at least May - December). As to NB CA movement to WB FO, I agree this is likely to happen, but I do not see it materially impacting bidding opportunities on the WB fleets given the movement right now. My last thought though may be a bit of a Debbie Downer one. Personally, I feel the market is due for a major correction in '22 with the Fed being the catalyst. If that happens, we could easily see a short recession, and all that movement and hiring would come to a screeching halt. I wouldn't lose too much sleep contemplating that possibility as it's one lowly pilots opinion and nothing more.

 

I would advise caution when forecasting stuff like this. The last time we had significant vacancies go unfilled the company wanted filled, the company waived the seat lock time requirement. I'm thinking something similar will happen again. That throws all the projections off.

 

pre Covid

777 did IAD-NRT, NRT-GUM

787 did IAD-PEK

post Covid the Tokyo flight will swap to HND. What aircraft flies that is unknown as of now.

 

Quick question, since I haven't tried to VDO in over six years.

Can you only VDO the front end of a reserve block, or can you VDO the back end?

 

you can vdo the back end too but you only get vdo pay for that day not the entire trip.