Summer pause - announced only 2 months ago. Delta management has already said it will reevaluate hiring in Fall of 2025. United did a pause too last year when DL didn’t. DL recruiting also announced it’s attending OBAP today.. Hiring will either resume Fall 25’ or acutely in Q1 2026. Delta management has said nothing about Q3 2026 that’s simply APF rumor and completely illogical.

Rumor at United was 28,000-30,000 Pilots by 2030 & 2,000+ in 2024/2025, no? Point is I doubt any airline hires over 2,000 with ongoing supply chain issues and no 7M10 which DL is now the launch customer for..

2025-2029 retirements: DL 2,506 vs UA 2,975: 469 pilot diff (negligible). DL & UA diverge the most in 2041 in UA’s favor at a 9% difference in retirements (cumulative 2024-2065 retirements). After 2041 DL speeds up & surpasses UA in retirements by 2052. It plays catchup until 2055 where it cumulatively has more.

Past that UAvDL retirements are a push relatively being the same over a career. Delta actually comes out marginally ahead between the two - at least in my career.

Hiring Slowdownhtml
View post #81 for the 2024-2065 retirement chart developed by WidgetSeniority & UA’s Employee Only website.

All to say, it’s American that has insane retirements numbers throughout the foreseeable future. Though, I wouldn’t trade DL or UA’s financial security for that progression. Albeit, AA is likely best for someone who’s getting hired much older.

Age 67 is shutdown and not happening anytime soon✌🏼

 

Reads to me that based on retirements, in my early 30s I should simply try to accept the first CJO I get between DAL/UA if I don't care about bases?

 

You accept the first major CJO you can get. If you feel the need to go elsewhere you'll have a far easier time getting a CJO at another one.

 

You’ll exp. faster seniority initially at UA until 2041. At DL you’ll realize the same seniority progression in 2052.

You’ll enjoy - at its apex but most of the time less - a 9% boost in seniority at UA for for 26 years.. after that it’s a push… 9% is important up until about 70-80% system seniority due to being above furlough line and being a NB CA or WB FO. After that 1-9% is pretty negligible over those 26 yrs. when you factor in the multiple hubs/fleets DL/UA has.

Of course, all of that can change if Delta or United alters their growth plans or another black swan event.

United is flashy with their growth news and likes to take stabs at their competitors (mostly @AA) which I like. Big orders that stem numerous years out, has an outlier 350 order, BoomJets, E-Jets, & BlendedWing orders.. TK was telling NH’s ~30K pilots in 2030-ish. Lots of stuff to be excited about obviously but generally it’s grossly over estimated. But, gamble big win big.. or lose big.

Delta is hyper conservative and shares absolutely zero growth plans. The conservative approach is boring, but DL management prints money (love hate relationship with this strategy). United clearly has more WB’s if that’s your thing. You’ll fly em’ at both though. Global Scope addition in 2023 from DALPA killed the trope of DL giving away WB jobs - now all partner flying DL will have to match 1:1 on TPAC/TATL/South America flying.

DL flies 2 CA on WB’s too vs 3FO1CA and no “relief pilot” only positions. I’d wager Delta’s soft pay rules and ability to “roll thunder” via green slips fairly being distributed to junior pilots makes UA having more WB’s a push.

Ultimately, at your age and ability to live anywhere it’s a more or less the same. Obviously, DL@ATL and UA@DEN have training center opportunity. JFK/LGA & EWR are junior obviously.

Or, accept the first CJO.. I probably should’ve just said that it’s the best plan.

 

Sincerely appreciate the insights posted! I know crystal balls are always hazy but with all the doom and gloom posted about missing the big 2020 wave it's refreshing to get a little bit of "no, you'll be fine even if you onboard in your early 30s at these legacies". Feels like a rat race day in and day out where you're always behind.

 

United's pause has been done almost every summer. Even if its not a "pause" we generally don't have June/July new hire classes except in heavy hiring years. Latest plan was 200 pilots in November and 200 in December since we added a bunch more Airbus 321s (now getting well over 200) and most of those come in 2026 and 2027. Also 787 deliveries supposed to be 2 a month starting in January, per Boeing.

I bet every one of the Big 3 is hiring like crazy in 2026, which will really put hiring and training churn pressure on a lot of LCCs and regionals again.

 

No one in Congress is talking about it. Latest FAA bill is good until September 2028 and doubtful there will be any age extensions passed, especially since there are pilots on furlough and many airlines aren't hiring pilots at all. Sort of proved the pilot shortage wasn't real. Just a lock of pilots that wanted to fly at less desirable airlines.

 

If you’re only in your early 30s and you get a job from ANY legacy carrier, you should consider yourself as having won the lottery and go without a second thought. Once you’re there, then try for the legacy of your choice if you still feel so inclined.

Always be asking yourself where you’d rather be when (not if) the music stops. Always be planning as if it will stop tomorrow. Never, ever hold out for something “better” because “better” may never come.

 

Would anyone who has recently been offered a class date mind giving me their timeline from their initial Hogan email to their expected class start?

Got an unexpected email today and I'm just trying to get a feel for what the timeline might look like.

 

Yeah, don't let the passing of that wave concern you. As long as you're doing what you need to be doing to get to the majors just keep at it. Your time will come. That wave was certainly not the last chance to get hired, obviously. You got this.