That's not at all how I read his post. He specifically stated that over the near to medium term future, that upgrades would settle at 5-10 years. I read that as "for people hired now." And I think that's a very reasonable assumption because it would return upgrade times to where they have historically been, on average.

Our late 2022 hires upgraded on the last bid and this one. By the time they hit the line, it'll be 3.5 years since hire. For someone hired in Jan 2026, it's very reasonable to expect that they will be able to upgrade, at best, in 5 years. Because the contract is so much better for reserve guys, and because new CAs now get a year of positive space commuting, the two biggest obstacles to upgrade have been significantly improved. Which is why we're seeing so many more people wanting to jump the trash bag.

Obviously nobody has a crystal ball, but I can't imagine a scenario in which 2026 hires upgrade in the 3.5 years it's taking the late 2022 hires. So I agree fully with VacancyBid's projections.

 

I think his projections are spot on. As a 24 hire, I'm guesstimating I'll be able to hold the left seat plug 73 spot in ORD around spring of '28, and the last 2 vacancy bids would indicate thats a reasonable timeline.

I grew up in the south knowing delta guys on furlough throughout my young adult years. I think anyone losing sleep over having a 4-5 year flow to the left seat probably needs to stay in the right seat and gain perspective anyways.

That's my $0.02.

 

He predicted 5-10 years. Last 2 bids were just under 3 and now just over 3. Its a cop out to transmute this to "at some point in the future its possibly (then picks a 5 year range) of 5-10 years."

He was guessing 5-10 years, and he was wrong.

 

What indicates that you could hold ORD737CA in 2028? The last vacancy went only down to 66xx! Yes, those were backfills, but at the very least it seems impossible to know how many pilots between 7k and 16k (assuming you’re around 16k as a 2024 hire) are waiting their turn.

Given that ORD is a more senior base then SFO/LAX, and those bases were in the 13k range for 737CA in the last award, it seems like it may be a longer wait then two more years.

 

The company learned its lesson after it went bananas with the new hire and probationary awards to CA only for deliveries to grind to a halt. Now they are taking a cautious approach. I think with retirements and deliveries now, these two vacancies will be wholly inadequate in 6 months time. The problem with ORD is it’s shifting to 320 flying, so the 737 may stagnate for a bit. My best guess

 

It’s been more 320 lately in ORD but we’d need 100 more 320 captains to get close to 737 CA numbers. Hope it’s the case but I think unlikely. I doubt we see much if any 737 CA till fall 26 in ORD, construction is choking it. Some backfills and they’ll go senior. There’s quite a few WB FOs that want to do that (junior ones) but can’t

 

I like my OMA and DSM overnights as stated above……. I will say though that at this stage of my career……I’m not really getting better by doing 12 legs over 4 days……I’m just accelerating my inexorable physical decline and neurodegeneration. That being said…a 4 day where you go into a Class D or a non busy Class C with no star at night at least once a month or just the same an uncontrolled field are skills that need regular practice and can easily dissipate.

I really do buy into the LeBron James load shedding or load management phenomenon practiced in the NBA with our profession.

 

Retirements alone would bring my seniority number in line with the plugs for the last 73CA vacancy. I happen to think people will move categories, and believe the 737 deliveries we have planned aren't all aircraft retirements. I don't think it's overly optimistic to think spring 28 for a captain class, but I'm also not the kind of person who tries to project my retirement savings using a 0% rate of return.

 

You must of never flown 10 legs a day in a B1900. 3 legs a day isn’t tough.

 

Then you can do all the pairings with 3 or legs per day. I’ll pass on them and stick to MY preference of 2 or less.