I don't think anyone is being a doomer here. It's more observations of the hiring date ranges of people who are currently the plug in various NBCA categories and trying to extrapolate based on that. That currently at least appears to be 2021 thru about summerish 2022. In other bases in the last bid, it was going in the 10000-11000 seniority in some of the more senior bases

So yeah, it's not unreasonable to take a swag at 3-5 years depending on the hiring numbers and current trends, base dependent of course.

Could this change? Of course it could. I don't think anyone is saying that it won't, but all we have right now is the data we can see at the moment.

 

Not disputing any of that, but the hyperbole about the vacancy bids seems to be every time there is a single backfill in one category the derps come out screaming about XXX years to hold XXX and their data point is a single useless piece of data.

 

That's why I said nearly. If 294/300 pilots can hold it, that's pretty nearly 100%. I was looking at 133xx, so maybe 293.

 

I haven't seen anyone posting anything like that.

Simple reality is that, according to the last couple CRUs, the last bid was the major NBCA bid for 2026. Could there be more small bids? Sure, the CRU allows for that possibility. But what's relevant now is, what is the most junior person awarded NBCA or WBFO in recent bids? The answer is, if you want to be awarded NBCA in the last couple bids, you needed to have been hired in late 2022.

Could this upgrade time shorten? Yes. But could it also get a lot longer for people hired in '24 and later? Also yes. The changes in UPA23 heavily incentivized upgrading by giving new CAs positive space commuting for a year, and greatly improving reserve rules. So I think we're seeing a lot of senior FOs jumping the fence, because the short era of frequent monthly CA vacancies is clearly over.

The truth is, none of us know what's going to happen. We're just making our best guesses..I would LOVE to be proven wrong, because I missed the new hire CA thing by *one week* and would much rather be sitting closer to the tiller. But like others here, I'm just prognosticating based on the latest trends and what my buddies are doing. All of my friends who are senior to me and are in the right seat (which is a fair number of people) are itching to upgrade at the first available chance. So I think someone hired today will see a 5 year upgrade. I'd love to be wrong, though!

 

You and all the spirit guys obsession with upgrading asap just to sit reserve for 9-11 years is hilarious and weird.

You work for UA. There’s probably 10k of us out here who would HAPPILY trade spots with you even if it meant sitting reserve as an FO for a decade.

 

I've done VEC a majority of this year and it's been fantastic. I'd say 95hrs credit in a non-vacation month would be on the lower end for me. Granted I'm the #1 RSV in my BES so I'm pretty aggressive in grabbing SCs to avoid flying. If anyone have Qs about it I'd be happy to help.

 

Be careful how you broadcast this, don’t want too many people senior to me to start doing it. 95 hours would be on the very lighter side for me as well, come to think of it I can’t remember a time I credited less than 100. When you do get pinched for a 4 day trip…(which only happened 2 times in all of 2025) itsa double whammy as not only are you working for free, it robs you of more days you can monetize for more unused SC’s late build SC’s

 

C'mon man, at least bring a better troll game.

 

For maxed out NK captains it is a $200k pay-cut going to UA. Have less than a decade left, so just trying to keep my retirement plan on the rails.
Took me over a decade to make more than what a first year regional FO makes nowadays, trying to make up. Not 8!1ching, I am truly a happy guy, love UA, grateful they hired me, just adding perspective.

 

That guy trolls this forum every day, just ignore him.