How is it ironic that I care about the bad thing that happened to 5 of our pilots, when I have cared about his issue and brought it to everyone’s attention that it was not just a possibility but extremely likely?

As one of two people on APC who doesn’t seem to care at all and probably tells people “you’d do the job for free because you love it so much”. I really don’t think there is a point in engaging with you. Other than demonstrating to those paying attention how bad things have gotten and how bad they will likely become post SLI.

Also, not really sure what kind of irony you’re referring to. The Alanis Morrissette flavor of not actually ironic, just unfortunate comes to mind… pretty sure she didn’t know what that word meant either.

I care about the fact that in 3 years I’ve gone from a teen away from the bottom of the captain seniority list to a tween. The pilot group has decreased by over 150 pilots since 2023, the replacement rate for attrition is 34%, only 58 have been hired with 178 gone as of January 1 2026, since January 1, 2024. We didn’t add more captain’s on the last bid we just replaced some that left and clearly not all.

With the 330F likely going away sooner than later I’m no longer scratching my head about why the 140 or so pilots we had in 2023 haven’t been replaced. My future at this airline is incredibly clear to me. I will vote accordingly.

 

It might come down to vote down the TA simply to delay the inevitable.

If AZ pilots are displaced after SLI they can go anywhere, and displace anyone (probably literally anyone on the AS list for the AZ CA's). If the displacement happens pre-SLI, they'll get settled into their new seats on the HA fleets and won't have any Bump & Flush rights after SLI. The big churn is compartmentalized on the HA side, and then post SLI things can slowly settle out over time with routine bids.

Sad that it might come to that, but is what it is. Although I'm sure the AS group could be bribed with a sufficiently juicy JCBA (no there won't be protections for really junior CA's, aside from hypothetically really good FO pay).

 

Just re-stating what was said. I am pretty sure that BA currently faces "extreme scrutiny" from both regulators and customers (including AS). If there existed a significant concern about the production of the 737, I don't believe the regulators would have approved the current increase in the production rate to 42/month, and headed to 47/month. Just my opinion, but Boeing is no longer manufacturing aircraft in a vacuum (meaning without oversight), so there have been positive changes to their oversight.

Time will tell the final answer.

S

 

Then we have the HNL 787 displacement, the HNL 717 displacement, possibly the HNL 321 displacement. The suck is inevitable.

 

Yeah delaying JCBA to protect yourself from possible displacements is just stupid. If the deal is good vote yes, if not vote no. Worrying about hypotheticals is just not a healthy way to live your life.

 

HNL 787 pilots will probably just go to SEA, either move or commute. I'm not worried about those folks wanting to bid mainland 737 for the most part. Or if they really don't want to commute, bid something on the islands, whether it's 321, 737, 717.

Displaced 717/321 pilots would presumably bid 737 island base, which I think they'll need to cover all that flying, and also to not totally alienate the locals. Especially 717, be stoopid to make them commute to the west coast just to fly back, stay in company hotels, and do inter-island.

I'm kind of assuming that NB flying will be gradual one-for-one replacements with 737, so no significant net displacements.

Also most of the HA NB pilots are more on the junior side, and will not have WB super-seniority.

 

As I said, if it's good enough, enough people will vote for it anyway. It's a consideration, not an absolute.

It's starting to sound like the 1,000 people in SEA who were eager for JCBA/SLI because they thought they'd all be 787 pilots on the effective date are starting to wise up to SLI reality.

 

Straw poll said less than 30% of the HNL 787 left seat want to go to Seattle. They went to the plane because on ramp up it was just doing west coast trips. They will go to the 330 and more junior 330 captains will go to Seattle instead... or the bottom of the 330 captain list will get displaced.

The 717 is one bad AD away from getting parked. Both seats (other than the top of the left seat) are super junior so th3 FOs will go where they are told and most captains will slot into FO lists elsewhere.

 

Extreme scrutiny = the production rate being capped again. It will only take one mild issue for that to be put in place yet again. Keep in mind the MAX 10 line is being put in place at PAE and will be the slowest production line of the four MAX production lines.

 

I'm no longer a boeing fan boy, got disillusioned along the way somewhere.

But Ortberg seems to be doing all of the right stuff, and while I suspect there are people in that organization who just have bad instincts, as long as you hold consequences over their head maybe they stay with the new program. But agree they need to be watched very carefully for a very long time. Kind of like "Trust but Verify" without the "Trust" part.