Spot oil futures seem to be trading under $100.

Wonder if this has anything to do with Iran making side deals by collecting tolls and letting certain flags through unmolested?

 

So, what is the long-term solution? I suppose it would be a mowing-the-lawn thing every few years.

 

i dont know if "need" is the word I'd use, but i'm for it. Cut off the IRCGs money and now China is buying half of its foreign oil from us- i mean Iran of course.

Obviously we control the island, not the oil. Its not a threat Xi, but don't make us crazy ok? Play nice dumb dumb or you can get out and push that war wagon of yours.

 

Yes. But I don’t respect you for your opinion.

 

Devils advocate, what about Iran’s right to defend their bit of real estate? Twice actually in the last 12 months.


We’ve watched Russia be a far bigger threat to the U.S. and Europe, and carrying a land-occupying war against an Ukraine for 3+ yrs now. Did anyone go and bomb Moscow? Anyone bomb Putin’s compound? No. Because Russia has nukes and ICBMs, and unlike Iran, they can actually hit us.


What lesson does our inaction on Russia and direct action on Iran teach? If Iran didnt have ambitions for nuclear weapons, they sure do now. I’d bet they spend every waking minute trying to develop a nuke going forward. Ayatollah and ruling like type parties are all about power. They don’t want to relinquish it and would not risk throwing the first nuke, only to face a mutually assured destruction.


2 state solution died with Rabin’s assassination. Best we can hope for peace in the Middle East is the same “peace” Pakistan and India found in 1998. Both declared nuclear capabilities and since then, no major wars. Long term peace in the ME is going to be a nuclear stale mate. The best option then will be not to play.

 

Maybe you missed the first days of the war but they exercised their right to defend their bit of realestate. Couple months ago too in a little sector where they housed some of their nuke program.

Seems lIke all the middle east neighbors, more than just Israel, decided a nuclear Iran was pretty terrible and helping the USA was preferable. Sometimes the Great Sheytân-e Bozorg wins.

 

Maybe I missed it but, why are people upset at the thought of having china help? It seems to me like a hilarious and great idea. Like others said we’re constantly knocking over Iran’s nuclear capabilities and this time we decided to take a bigger reset to it. It ends up great that their oil that is being threatened feeds the Chinese. So it seems to me that hurting an enemy that in turn hurts another enemy and requires them to help us is a great idea. If we have the option to reduce risk and costs why would it be bad to go after it? So far the only arguments made about it are wrapped into ego and pride. Which is ironic cause for once we have the person who is known for their massive ego being the one willing to ask/accept help and now people are upset he’s not letting his pride dictate more action?

 

If you use the word "hilarious" when talking about genuine foreign policy, one might think you don't take foreign policy seriously

 

Well, we are about to start contract negotiations. What happens when one side puts themselves in a position to need something from the other?

Leverage and concessions come to mind.

 

Point and question still stands. While I can appreciate the gravity of foreign policy I am not upset that dictator and authoritarian killers are being taken out. Even better that it creates an opportunity to interfere with another aggressor and even create a situation where they will fare better by helping us.

For the leverage and concessions it helps that china interest would be in keeping their oil supply from Iran unaffected. They can’t afford to just let it slide with their heavy shipping and manufacturing.