Hormuz impacts
#231
Devils advocate, what about Iran’s right to defend their bit of real estate? Twice actually in the last 12 months.
We’ve watched Russia be a far bigger threat to the U.S. and Europe, and carrying a land-occupying war against an Ukraine for 3+ yrs now. Did anyone go and bomb Moscow? Anyone bomb Putin’s compound? No. Because Russia has nukes and ICBMs, and unlike Iran, they can actually hit us.
What lesson does our inaction on Russia and direct action on Iran teach? If Iran didnt have ambitions for nuclear weapons, they sure do now. I’d bet they spend every waking minute trying to develop a nuke going forward. Ayatollah and ruling like type parties are all about power. They don’t want to relinquish it and would not risk throwing the first nuke, only to face a mutually assured destruction.
2 state solution died with Rabin’s assassination. Best we can hope for peace in the Middle East is the same “peace” Pakistan and India found in 1998. Both declared nuclear capabilities and since then, no major wars. Long term peace in the ME is going to be a nuclear stale mate. The best option then will be not to play.
We’ve watched Russia be a far bigger threat to the U.S. and Europe, and carrying a land-occupying war against an Ukraine for 3+ yrs now. Did anyone go and bomb Moscow? Anyone bomb Putin’s compound? No. Because Russia has nukes and ICBMs, and unlike Iran, they can actually hit us.
What lesson does our inaction on Russia and direct action on Iran teach? If Iran didnt have ambitions for nuclear weapons, they sure do now. I’d bet they spend every waking minute trying to develop a nuke going forward. Ayatollah and ruling like type parties are all about power. They don’t want to relinquish it and would not risk throwing the first nuke, only to face a mutually assured destruction.
2 state solution died with Rabin’s assassination. Best we can hope for peace in the Middle East is the same “peace” Pakistan and India found in 1998. Both declared nuclear capabilities and since then, no major wars. Long term peace in the ME is going to be a nuclear stale mate. The best option then will be not to play.
https://mei.edu/publication/irans-re...as-apocalypse/
From their initial attack on the US embassy and holding US citizens hostage for 444 days to current funding of terrorist organizations throughout the Middle East and Africa they have been the aggressors.
They are not simple oil well workers who simply want to be left alone nor have they ever been.
So I’ll ask YOU a philosophical question:
If you could go back in time to say…1929 and had a chance to take out Hitler before the Reichstag fire - back when the Nazis only had 12 seats in the Reichstag - and you had a chance to take out Hitler and Goebbels, would you have done it? Shot them from a distance or run over them with a truck or whatever it took? I would have. Yeah, it would have been a cosmic roll of the dice, with no guarantees - the road not taken.
Because what did happen damn near couldn’t have been worse. WWII killed more than 70 million people, perhaps as many as 85 million - a not inconsiderable feat considering the technology and logistics of the era.
So why would I want some proven terrorist government of religious fanatics to develop ICBMs and nukes.
#232
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 2,920
Likes: 116
Point and question still stands. While I can appreciate the gravity of foreign policy I am not upset that dictator and authoritarian killers are being taken out. Even better that it creates an opportunity to interfere with another aggressor and even create a situation where they will fare better by helping us.
For the leverage and concessions it helps that china interest would be in keeping their oil supply from Iran unaffected. They can’t afford to just let it slide with their heavy shipping and manufacturing.
For the leverage and concessions it helps that china interest would be in keeping their oil supply from Iran unaffected. They can’t afford to just let it slide with their heavy shipping and manufacturing.
venezuela had a good roll of the dice, no notes, and i liked the timing was the day before a big Chinese meeting.
Iran has gone well so far, the empire has lost control of iraq and syria/lebanon, their proxies have their nuts chopped off, makes the future attacks on israeli less of a distraction.
Without iranian oil, china might be able to attack taiwan but i dont think theyll hold it or stop a counterattack. If China is forced to wait a couple years they might have enough of a age demo problem taiwan invasion becomes untenable.
Who knows if it will all work out, but at least we are knee capping our sworn enemies. If venezuela, cuba, and iran are all taken care of by the end of this year, a decade from now people will laugh at the thought of the usa doing any less.
#233
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jun 2022
Posts: 2,278
Likes: 441
Point and question still stands. While I can appreciate the gravity of foreign policy I am not upset that dictator and authoritarian killers are being taken out. Even better that it creates an opportunity to interfere with another aggressor and even create a situation where they will fare better by helping us.
For the leverage and concessions it helps that china interest would be in keeping their oil supply from Iran unaffected. They can’t afford to just let it slide with their heavy shipping and manufacturing.
For the leverage and concessions it helps that china interest would be in keeping their oil supply from Iran unaffected. They can’t afford to just let it slide with their heavy shipping and manufacturing.
everything i said is subjective except a few points clearly delineated
#234
On Reserve
Joined: Nov 2018
Posts: 16
Likes: 9
its about optics, geopolitical dynamics, the value of the dollar, and the slow erosion of “perceived” American invincibility. Whether we like it or not the long peace was enabled by the perception of American military might. Power loves a vacuum and when the world stops asking for us to help, or ask our opinion, we lose a spot at the table. When we lose our spot at the table we cannot shape events to fit our foreign policy in our best interests. Where that goes i have no idea. Do we have the right to be top dog dictating world vectors? Up for debate. What i do know is that if the world starts to see china as an equal, we will lose soft power. Maybe its inevitable.
everything i said is subjective except a few points clearly delineated
everything i said is subjective except a few points clearly delineated
Correct me if I’m wrong but I believe we have more money in the first month of Ukraine than what we’re putting into this fight.
#235
Line Holder

Joined: Feb 2020
Posts: 1,191
Likes: 340
now you are getting philosophical here and I Don’t think you totally get the issue of radical Shia Islam. Iran has been aggressively funding terrorist groups all over the place from Iran for almost a half century.
https://mei.edu/publication/irans-re...as-apocalypse/
From their initial attack on the US embassy and holding US citizens hostage for 444 days to current funding of terrorist organizations throughout the Middle East and Africa they have been the aggressors.
They are not simple oil well workers who simply want to be left alone nor have they ever been.
So I’ll ask YOU a philosophical question:
If you could go back in time to say…1929 and had a chance to take out Hitler before the Reichstag fire - back when the Nazis only had 12 seats in the Reichstag - and you had a chance to take out Hitler and Goebbels, would you have done it? Shot them from a distance or run over them with a truck or whatever it took? I would have. Yeah, it would have been a cosmic roll of the dice, with no guarantees - the road not taken.
Because what did happen damn near couldn’t have been worse. WWII killed more than 70 million people, perhaps as many as 85 million - a not inconsiderable feat considering the technology and logistics of the era.
So why would I want some proven terrorist government of religious fanatics to develop ICBMs and nukes.
https://mei.edu/publication/irans-re...as-apocalypse/
From their initial attack on the US embassy and holding US citizens hostage for 444 days to current funding of terrorist organizations throughout the Middle East and Africa they have been the aggressors.
They are not simple oil well workers who simply want to be left alone nor have they ever been.
So I’ll ask YOU a philosophical question:
If you could go back in time to say…1929 and had a chance to take out Hitler before the Reichstag fire - back when the Nazis only had 12 seats in the Reichstag - and you had a chance to take out Hitler and Goebbels, would you have done it? Shot them from a distance or run over them with a truck or whatever it took? I would have. Yeah, it would have been a cosmic roll of the dice, with no guarantees - the road not taken.
Because what did happen damn near couldn’t have been worse. WWII killed more than 70 million people, perhaps as many as 85 million - a not inconsiderable feat considering the technology and logistics of the era.
So why would I want some proven terrorist government of religious fanatics to develop ICBMs and nukes.
We're batting pretty poorly when we attempt regime change in the 20th and 21st centuries.
The vast majority of the Shia population in Iran does want to be left alone. Just because we're in bed with the Sunni leaders in the ME doesn't mean their the good guys.
#236
You seem to forget that we started all this mess when the democratical leader of Iran wanted to nationalize their oil industry and ARAMCO and US oil companies pressured the US and British governments to intervene (Operation Ajax). That got us the unpopular Shah which led to the Islamic Revolution.
We're batting pretty poorly when we attempt regime change in the 20th and 21st centuries.
The vast majority of the Shia population in Iran does want to be left alone. Just because we're in bed with the Sunni leaders in the ME doesn't mean their the good guys.
We're batting pretty poorly when we attempt regime change in the 20th and 21st centuries.
The vast majority of the Shia population in Iran does want to be left alone. Just because we're in bed with the Sunni leaders in the ME doesn't mean their the good guys.
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