Does anybody have a method to determine if a bid month will have a lot of black vs. blue days? I have a primitive method of looking at the chart in the bid package that looks at the fleet, base, and # of trips between 1-14 days. I take the total number of trips and multiply by the average trip length for a general estimate of the total work, and when I compare one month to the other I get ZERO useful information :). I seriously can't figure out why two months with fairly similar flying quantity, ALV, and staffing seem to have such disparate blue/black days. I know there's a bit more vacation to account for outside of summer months but I'm totally perplexed how during the summer even bottom feeders on RES could arrange their schedules however they chose within contractual limits but now that we're in the "slow" season, 28/30 days are black and there are days with numbers like 24 required, 9 available. Appreciate if anybody could shed some light on this subject.

I just look at the RLL value and compare it to the number of pilots in category. The RLL roughly estimates the number of lines in my experience. If the RLL is 118 and the number of pilots is 130 then you know it’s going to be a rough month.

For Nov my category the RLL was 120ish and pilots avail was 142. Not great but not awful. Result was mostly blue except for couple of weekends and the holiday period.

They post by the 5th of the month prior the projected number of regular lines verses reserve lines. After bidding is complete they post the actual numbers. Easy to compare between months. Helps make decisions on bidding regular verses reserve.

I look to see if Extra X day is offered. If it is, that usually means fat on reserves

Perhaps the majority of the time. Summer in ATL717a land was pretty gentlemanly on RES and we never had an extra RES day.

Thanks for the RLL tip. I looked at a few months and that method is definitely easier and more reliable than my failed method but not foolproof. I had a very easy March with RLL of 246 and our Nov RLL is 250 where I'll likely be flown to guarantee. On the flip side June was also pretty easy and RLL was 212 which backs this technique. Finally, enough senior people are still bidding RES that anybody in the category can have a line if they wish, this has been true for 3 months straight.

Been awhile since I've been on reserve...short call conversions aside, bunch of folks in a 5 day bucket with a handful of us in a 4 day bucket. Four day trip comes up who gets it first? Junior 5 day bucket or 4 day folks? Again, everything being equal with no flying yet it will be the 1st of the month. Thanks.

It will go to a person in the 4 day bucket. Matching trip length to days available is first thing scheds looks at.

I believe your hypothetical 4 day trip would go to most junior guy in the 4 day bucket.

The days of availability bucket is 4 or more days (for narrow body categories). So it should go to junior guy in the lowest raw score grouping regardless of if they have 4 or 5 days? Clear as mud? Section 23 S 1 a and 23 S 1 b

Ive found it a very opaque process so results may vary.

Where is this?

Crew resources in Delta net. Same page bid awards are found on. Scroll further down to PBS section and then select PBS line counts. It’s a great resources for checking manning prior to bidding.