ACL65,

I certainly welcome your attempts to put out information responsibly by using the "Rumor only" and "IMHO" disclaimers. No worries though, I wasn't planning to hold you to the fire on predictions of manning - just trying to see exactly what it is you had heard. Thanks for the info - always appreciated.

Just asking, is this the same "outsourcing is good" & the APA are morons for seeking scope restoration speech we heard in Atlanta?

You know, at first i thought the CPZ presentation will be from actual CPZ LEC? But now you got me thinking. I was out of the loop for a while, and didn't know they shot down the scope study, which just makes me more disgruntled!

They are saying Q 1 2010 is where there will be a good uptick. To the point of starting to add capacity back in.

What I have heard "officially" is this.

Manning looks good. 800 fat for the winter. Adequate to 150 short for next summer.
There has been talk of another small MD, but that they know they need bodies on the big jets again next summer.
There were no plans to furlough from the official sources. Last I checked was a few weeks ago though.

FWIW, it appears that our yeild is a bit lower than it was a few months ago. We could in effect be down up to 18% YOY. That means minimal to no profit for 2009. Remember they stated a 20% drop before we would not make money.

There were some rumblings a few months ago, that we may need to hire next year, but IMHO we will really need to be out of the woods to do that. I am sure the would prefer to go all the way down to the PBS staffing numbers before they hired. (Hard to run an airline at that, but hiring until we have a good turnaround is not the best choice)

Now if we get a good about a PERPS we may actually need to hire.
In effect a lot still needs to be played out. IMHO the next test is going to be after Aug 10th when they have to announce the early outs by.
From what I have seen flights are full, and that is good no matter what they are charging people for tickets.

Compass's stepped down for personal reasons leaving them currently represented through our Reps at the LECs where they are members. Frankly, if they will engage their Delta pilot reps, it would probably be a good thing to let this current representational work.

As for the various resolutions passed by members at the local level the unanimous response from the MEC was:
The fact this topic is being presented indicates it is likely the MEC is going on the offensive to "re-educate" the membership to make it easier to divest CPZ.

As a historical balance, it is worth while to read the ziplines leading up to bankruptcy.

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...e-to-stay.html

US pilot scope: Here to stay?

By Lori Ranson


While the economics of operating 50-seat jets has put those aircraft at a disadvantage to larger 70 and 90-seat aircraft, the fundamentals of their emergence late in the last decade remain intact: namely US pilot scope clauses.

Scope caps the number of regional jets operated by carriers on behalf of their partners, and also limits the number of seats per aircraft. United, Delta, Northwest and US Airways all got some relief on the 50-seat cap during their respective stints in Chapter 11 during the early 2000s. But American and Continental are still largely constrained to operating 50-seat aircraft.

As Bombardier works to secure orders for its 100-seat CRJ1000 and CSeries aircraft and Embraer’s orderbook tilts towards the larger end of its 170/190 E-Jet family, it appears that aircraft with roughly 76-to 86-seats are becoming the new dividing point between regional and mainline aircraft. A few regional carriers operate aircraft in the 86-seat range, but most of the larger regional jets are constrained to the 76-seat category.


Some airline executives are taking a sober view of any further loosening of scope restrictions as Delta Connection senior vice president Don Bornhorst recently told Regional Airline Association convention attendees he was not optimistic about scope relief for Delta or the industry. He predicts the CSeries and E-195 are destined to become mainline aircraft.

United seems less cynical than Delta as it begins contract talks with its pilots. Through its four-year restructuring that ended in 2006 United ultimately struck a deal with pilots that currently allows for an unlimited number of 70-seat jets with an 80,000lb weight limit. Certain limitations are associated with that somewhat unfettered access including fewer regional block hours than mainline. There are also some restrictions on nonstop 70-plus seat operations between United hubs and specific larger markets such as New York and Washington, DC, unless those operations are cost-effective, according to data from F&H Solutions Group.

Carrier vice president operations and planning for United Express Cindy Szadokierski told convention attendees that in current pilot contract talks “obviously scope is an issue we need to work our way through. In this environment with capacity reductions we see opportunities on both sides to move forward and meet both our needs”.





http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...x?ItemID=29200

© AGP Photography

While acknowledging the challenge of predicting with any clarity the outcome of those labour talks Bombardier Commercial Aircraft president Gary Scott does offer that he “has no doubt majors would like to increase the number and size of aircraft they operate in those [regional environments]. Both small CSeries and larger CRJs would fill the requirement should scope be relaxed”.

But mainline pilot resistance to scope remains steadfast as evidenced by the roughly 32-month long contract talks between American Airlines and its pilots.

Seeking to get on a level footing with its US mainline counterparts American aims to secure relief to operate 76-seat jets with a maximum takeoff weight of 89,000lbs. In a recent round of negotiations with pilots American management compared the 25 single-class CRJ700s flown by its subsidiary American Eagle to 209 larger 70-plus seat regional jets flown by Delta Connection carriers, with 149 of those aircraft featuring a two-class configuration. United, says American, operates 112 larger regional jets configured with a two-class offering.

American pilots scoffed at the presentation, dismissing it as a “pitch for APA [the Allied Pilots Association] to allow a scope exception permitting Eagle to fly a 76-seat Embraer in a two-class configuration”.

The reaction by American pilots appears to be consistent with a theory posed by industry analyst Michael Boyd to attendees at the RAA convention that US pilots are “adamant” of not letting go of scope and “not loosening those strings”.

Interesting article. Thanks Super. :)

It seems that DL execs know that coming to DALPA asking for any more scope relief will not go over well and will probably all but destroy the current 'workable' relationship they have. UAL on the other hand seems to really want scope much more flying to the regionals.

I knew it would only be a matter of time before AA and CO realized they were operating at a disadvantage when compared to the others. But I hope APA and CALPA hold strong on the limits they already have in place. They could use this as an opportunity to set a very important precedent.

Shop at the Gap!
 

Just read on Deltanet about our inaugural flight to Saigon. We broke cargo records with 5.2 tons and 6.4 tons back. The report said it was mostly GAP and Polo clothing and Nike sneakers.

So go shop at the GAP to fatten our profit sharing checks! Captains can shop at the Ralph Lauren store for the Polo stuff.