If you look at the world through a soda straw, we have lost 1% of Atlantic capacity vs. AF/KLM/AZ over a few months. I thought I was quite clear that this was going to happen over an extended time period and that your short term snapshot was not the end state. The JV flying accounts for a little over 20% of Delta's capacity.

I am not sure if you have noticed, but Europe is in a massive debt meltdown and traffic has cratered. Delta has been aggressive about cutting capacity and has turned losses into profits. AF has not cut capacity as quickly and they are losing money. The agreement was designed to sort itself out over time, not six months. Delta and AF are still like two sumo wrestlers waddling around the ring sizing each other up as the work out how to control capacity to make profits, both in expansion and contraction modes. They will either make it work or they will end the alliance.

I encourage you to take the longer view and see how this sorts out. We have one carrier that has been a laggard in developing a larger network through alliances and code shares. They are getting attacked by their larger competitors and now they have a large revenue problem, one that will not go away shortly. That carrier is American Airlines. Please tell me how this "go it alone" strategy has produced anything good for their pilots. They have been shrinking their pilot group constantly over the last years and they recently lost some grievance over minimum pilot count. They are in bankruptcy and will most likely not survive in anything close to their current form. First they will shrink and then they will have to merge with one or more carriers. They will also have to broaden their network through code shares and alliances.

Right now American is like a wide receiver that is trying to block two defensive lineman at once (Delta and United). They are getting their a..es kicked up and down the field. This will not stop until they get bigger. Sorry but that is the landscape we operate in. It is seductive to hope that if we just end alliances we will just take over all the flying done by our alliance partners. Instead, we will lose high revenue traffic due to a smaller network and we will have to contract flying to reach profitability. This is not conjecture, just look at American because that is exactly what happened to them and is continuing to happen.

Ya beat me to it...

Correct and therefore does not trigger the need for a AF type of JV wrt to us pilots.

Alfa;

Thanks for posting, we non-ALPA cheerleaders do appreciate it, but I gotta chime in.

I'll start with the bolded parts.

1. Soda straw: I am a Delta pilot, married to this company, a soda straw is all I can look thru. If my union thinks that Delta pilots need to be more magnanamous with distribution of flying, time it takes to "get well" and merger synergy payback, where do I sign up to decertify them.

2. Europe is in a massive debt meltdown: This european debt problem and the most recent loosening of money by the fed to help them is beyond the control of the Delta pilots. I can tell you what it does to us though. It makes our paycheck buy less. By devalueing the dollar and propping up the euro my retirement position weakens, my buying power shrinks, and this goes on for some amount of time in the future. Now, I have to be told by my union that this is good medicine for me because sometime in the distant future I will still have a job to commute to.

3. Noone knows whats going to happen at American from a competitive perspective. I am pretty sure what is going to happen to the pilot groups pay and benefits though.

We keep kicking the can down the road. People will fly or they won't. When is my union going to realize that this industry needs to quit decimating the livihoods of the workers it represents? Let us all know when this is the objective of our union. If it is not, let us know that too. By the time "the long view" comes to pass, Saudi Arabia will have pumped its last barrel of oil, China will own all the oil fields in Nigeria, the tar sand oil will go thru a pipeline to new refineries in China because our current administration wont let those pipelines be built thru america.

The next disaster is always going to be something. The ATA colludes against us. I just wish we had a union that would collude for us.

Great post, Scambo! Thanks!

You have no idea what the "end state" will be. None. Unless you're the unelected guy that keeps signing these MOU's. If you're not, our "end state" is not only unknowable, but is only another MOU away from being worse.

We would have that 20% anyway without any JV's. In many cases, we've just moved the deck chairs around on each other's boats. After all, the capacity is supposed to be a 50-50 split...right? Or are you saying that without JV's, neither side would have this 20% capacity?

Carl

As you well know, none of this has anything to do with why a single unelected MEC bureaucrat signed an MOU that allows for a 3 year imbalance against Delta pilots. I know it's a question you refuse to answer, but many of us notice that MEC bureaucrats like yourself do nothing but spin this as some sort of positive for Delta pilots.

I would encourage you to stop spinning the facts and changing the subject. Furthermore, you using American yet again as another tool of fear is pathetic. American is not in its current position due to a lack of JV's. American is where it is because they are one-third smaller than us, yet they have nearly DOUBLE the debt. I know that fact doesn't help you spin your MEC party line, but that's the facts. If JV's and code share were critical to success, Southwest would be bankrupt.

The sad facts are that our MEC writes the JV language and the MOU's. All of this has done nothing but help to shrink Delta. But rather than acknowledge it in any way, our MEC sends out people like alfaromeo to explain why we all need to take the long view.

Interesting choice of words that I hope everyone picks up on. "Broaden". Our MEC wants you to focus on "broadening" our network. Even though it's SHRINKING, the MEC thinks it's great because it's broader. Unbelievable.

Carl

Great post and spot on!

Carl

Who the freak is Mercury air?

JT

Mercury(Shuttle America) is actually the call sign for one of the 4 operating certificates(or however many it is)operated by RAH. It's actually Shuttle America dba Delta Connection......call sign Mercury.