Even if that's the case, what the B-School crowd never considers is what happens after that. The industry wide "capacity discipline" that occurred during the last little crunch was an anomaly that we may never again see. Quite often when we reduce capacity, others increase in proportion or even in excess, including lower cost competitors.

Fortunately because of luck and timing beyond any executive team's control, Skubus, Maxjet, Eos and others are no longer an industry wide threat and some of the previous so called LCC's have been mitigated. SWA is at least a rational competitor now, AT is gone, JB has at least partially cost-matured and VA has been absorbed.

However more threats remain, such as ULCC's Allegiant and Frontier attempting endless growth mode into traditional markets, JB's rapid foray into mission critical legacy markets with premium products at yield crushing fire sale prices, ME3's possibly fake multi year self evaluation period which may end up resulting in nothing but more dual subsidized poaching of our markets, and labor busting/scab-adjacent schemes like NAI continue to metastasize.

Meanwhile we continue to light billions and billions and billions of dollars on fire that we'll never get back and will one day end up wishing we had, as we once again entertain the strategy of temporary savings at the cost of permanent marketshare, revenue and profits.

In any case I don't entirely disagree with the 88 accumulator theory to a point. Primarily because they are fuel and increasing MX hogs as well as noise and possibly nav issues as well.

 

I'd like to give this a go.

These are all hypothetical numbers.

Let's say an MD-88 costs 10 cents per seat mile in fuel and 10 in maintenance.

Meanwhile AMR is operating on the same route a A319 that costs on average 6 cents per seat mile in fuel, 5 in maintenance and 9 in lease payments.

In this example the costs per seat mile end up being the same (although I think the numbers skew so that with fuel prices like they have been the -88 is cheaper).

If both carriers park the associated aircraft DL now has a zero cost aircraft while AMR has to make payments for the leases as if it was flying a full schedule, reducing the cost advantages of parking it. It might cost the same amount to fly either one, but the cost advantages to not fly it are smaller.

Something no one has mentioned either is that leased aircraft are required to be maintained in airworthy condition for the duration of the lease per contract terms so, unlike an -88 where you can park them as checks become due, the leased aircraft cannot be parked with maintenance outstanding. Many of the lease terms actually require the aircraft be kept in active service as part of this requirement as well. I remember one of the majors (I think it was American) being sued at one point for parking leased aircraft.

What I'm getting at is it's not just a cost thing for operating the aircraft as there are additional rules at play with a leased or mortgaged aircraft that they don't have to worry about one they own outright.

 

Your example is completely hypothetical and the numbers you pulled out of thin air have no real basis to make any rational comparison. That being said, how do you factor in the interest that AAL is paying on the debt on those new airplanes? I would venture to guess that it is way more significant than the few cents you posited adding to the seat mile cost.

 

Does anyone know what weight LOR's have on your Delta application? Do more of them increase your chances of getting called or do they only consider them during the interview itself?


I'm talking about LOR's attached to the Airline App's application, not LOR's emailed by pilots to pilot recruitment.

 

When are the next classes scheduled and how many people per class?

 

No future classes scheduled. Just got info suggesting the company won’t decide on new hire class dates again until the AE results are posted.

 

Thank you. When does the AE come out and how many are in the hiring pool currently?

 

Interesting goings on right now. If any of ya'll read other airlines threads, you will see that practically everybody is slowing if not outright stopping hiring.

Draw whatever conclusions you will, but there might be an indicator in there somewhere.

 

Actually had odd paperwork in log book in a 88 two days ago that stated Delta was in process of purchasing the 88 and this was the temporary airworthiness. Sounds like they are buying out the lease or something to that affect. Can’t become a parts bin if you don’t buy the parts?

 

Oil prices, everyone built their business plans around oil being a max of 60 a barrel. If it drops down below 60 I think this will be a blip. If oil stays high you might see a longer period without hiring however retirements provide a safe cushion against furloughs unless the company just decided to use every contractual clause to stick it to the union. If they did that they would be costing themselves money with the current furlough protections so its highly unlikely. Money rules!