I said long ago that their projection probably isn't far off. I think it’s 6 years, not 5. Short term it may hit 6.5-7 years but will come right back down.

I also think by this time next year you won’t need more than completing probation to go to any of the good majors and ACMI’s

2-4 years will be legacy material. Waiting 5-6 will only be needed by those without degrees, couldn’t get AA through the front door, or just didn’t try and were content to sweat it out waiting to flow.

They could attract more pilots simply by making the work rules and working conditions among the best in the industry. That cost would be much less expensive than all these bonus programs, pipelines, 200% open time and hiring advertising promoters like THStooj.

As for THStooj, he continues to sell something that is loosing value daily. Shortly it will become worthless. He loses credibility every time he posts. Hence the reason he has to create new screen names all the time.

 

Hope you're right. If this comes true, even if it isn't on that kind of timeline which is pretty optimistic in my opinion, it will shatter the regional business model and all pilots will end up being paid closer to what we're worth rather than some making out like bandits and others getting the shaft.

 

February 04, 2020 Class 20-03

21 Envoy
08 PSA
24 MIL
03 Corporate
02 Piedmont
09 Other Airline

Total to date: 180
Glideslope: 180
2020 Plan: 1500 max

2020 plan:
25 classes. 60 each
1500 max load

 

21 include one hired off the street?

 

Yes. Solid guy.

 

You mean the uneducated guy with little to no experience. That one

 

No. Not that one. This guy was a great CA to fly with.

Not sure you are following this conversation.

 

while I’m not a big fan, even Kit Darby finally admitted that the demand is 10,000 pilots per year currently, while only 6,000 total new ATP’s are coming online each year, and not all are interested in 121.

sadly, ALPA National still has a legislative affairs chairman that insists there is no shortage.

when I say this time next year finishing probation will get you to a decent ACMI or a major... that’s the majors, not legacies. Places like Jetblue, Spirit, Frontier. 2-4 years will be legacy material. A 5.5-6 year flow will only be people with no degree, only want AA and are to lazy to fight for the front door..

 

Speaking as someone who has done a LOT of that math, it's a little more than two minutes, and if you don't have a good grasp of what the outside attrition is at all levels of the seniority list is, it's likely wrong.

 

All of the math is an estimate at best, and more likely a WAG. There are two huge unknown factors:

1. Outside Attrition - it’s hardly useful to use the past as a predictive tool considering what everyone anticipates the Legacy hiring to be over the next few years

2. The Flow Agreements - There is not a single pilot who has flowed to AA under an agreement that was in place when they were hired (at least in the last 20 years). The flow agreement staying constant for 5 years is extremely unlikely.