5.5 Years To Flow?
02-20-2020, 03:49 AM
#43
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Joined APC: Dec 2019
Posts: 270
Originally Posted by But seriously
All of the math is an estimate at best, and more likely a WAG. There are two huge unknown factors:
1. Outside Attrition - it’s hardly useful to use the past as a predictive tool considering what everyone anticipates the Legacy hiring to be over the next few years
2. The Flow Agreements - There is not a single pilot who has flowed to AA under an agreement that was in place when they were hired (at least in the last 20 years). The flow agreement staying constant for 5 years is extremely unlikely.
1. Outside Attrition - it’s hardly useful to use the past as a predictive tool considering what everyone anticipates the Legacy hiring to be over the next few years
2. The Flow Agreements - There is not a single pilot who has flowed to AA under an agreement that was in place when they were hired (at least in the last 20 years). The flow agreement staying constant for 5 years is extremely unlikely.
Fortunately, you're wrong. This time, the flow is contractual. It's not going to stop.
02-20-2020, 04:20 AM
#45
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Joined APC: May 2009
Position: 787
Posts: 454
Originally Posted by THKooj
Fortunately, you're wrong. This time, the flow is contractual. It's not going to stop.
02-20-2020, 05:52 AM
#46
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Joined APC: Mar 2017
Posts: 3,659
Originally Posted by itsmytime
the flow haters are really funny. They will make up any thing they can think of to discredit it.
Is it perfect, no, is it better than nothing, yes.
02-20-2020, 05:57 AM
#47
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Joined APC: Dec 2019
Posts: 270
Originally Posted by Cyio
Who “hates” the flow? Pretty sure everyone is happy to have it but what rational person wouldn’t want to see it improved?
Is it perfect, no, is it better than nothing, yes.
Is it perfect, no, is it better than nothing, yes.
02-20-2020, 06:03 AM
#49
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Joined APC: Jan 2017
Posts: 2,510
Originally Posted by THKooj
People who can't get in or those who are now on the outside looking in.
02-20-2020, 06:33 AM
#50
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Joined APC: Aug 2016
Position: Relaxed
Posts: 6,948
Originally Posted by But seriously
2. The Flow Agreements - The flow agreement staying constant for 5 years is extremely unlikely.
In light of this, will you think the flow agreement numbers will remain unchanged? Envoy flow numbers, with no change and no attrition, would result in new hires today flowing in 10 years. Yet hiring will result in 5 years average time to hire for the regionals as a whole.
Try squaring these two in your mind. Ether flows will become meaningless or flow numbers will change. (Baring a black swan event.)
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